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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 15
Oct 15,2019 18:10CST
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Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 15
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5820 / ton, the opening is high, and then as the market gradually digested the sentiment of China and the United States into a moderate positive, the center of gravity of copper prices showed a downward trend, the downward range of the sub-market is not yet obvious. Until entering the European market, copper prices fell significantly, superimposed followed by the euro zone October ZEW economic sentiment index month-on-month downward, and crude oil recently affected by weak demand, copper prices showed a downward trend again, under pressure to explore 5779 US dollars / ton. As of 17: 00, Lun Copper closed down 0.58% at $5782.5 a tonne, with the dollar index at 98.423 and US crude oil at $52.67 a barrel. Pay attention to the IMF held a global economic forecast conference in the evening, the current global economic weakness is obvious, in the context of simultaneous interest rate cuts in many countries, it is expected that it will be difficult to speak well in the evening, and the market risk aversion will be enhanced. At present, before the end of the copper 4 Lianyang state, below to explore the 5-day, 60-day moving average intersection, the KDJ index appeared a weak turning point signal. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to the $5770 / tonne position.

 

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 47010 yuan / ton, after the opening to maintain the concussion trend, long and short sides continue to stalemate saw, inseparable victory or defeat, the center of gravity in 46960-47040 yuan / ton between the shock to maintain stability, in the afternoon to continue the morning trend, the volatility spread remained within 1912 yuan / ton, closed at 46960 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton, down 0.19%. The main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its position by 3722 hands to 228000 hands today, while trading volume decreased by 36000 hands to 118000 hands. At present, the disk position backward trend is obvious, 2001 and 2002 contracts increased a total of 7110 hands today, to 122000 hands. The Shanghai copper index increased its daily position by 7690 hands to 559000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 68000 hands to 243000 hands. The trend of the intra-day market is relatively stable. The main reason is that the optimism of Sino-US trade and Brexit has been basically digested by the market in recent days. The market has generally returned to rationality, worried about whether the follow-up results of trade are smooth, and the global weak macro situation has not yet shown signs of warming, causing the market to worry about the demand side. Copper prices are not dynamic enough. At present, Shanghai Copper has a big sunny pillar, MACD indicators are still green pillars, and there is too much technical and negative information. Test at night if you can continue to stabilize position 46900. Today, the Shanghai copper 1910 contract is facing delivery, opened at 46990 yuan / ton in the morning, fell to 46880 yuan / ton at the opening, and then rebounded, with the center of gravity fluctuating around 46930 yuan / ton, closing at 46880 yuan / ton, settled at 46900 yuan / ton, and the delivery volume reached 28750 tons. at present, the contract structure of 1910-1911 continues to maintain the Contango structure, and the contract price difference reaches 40 yuan / ton.

 

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 40 ~ 100 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 46950 yuan / ton ~ 47010 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 46960 yuan / ton ~ 47020 yuan / ton. The copper pressure in Shanghai period hovered below 47000 yuan / ton. Today is the last trading day of the 1910 contract, but the market has moved to the next month 1911 contract quotation, the alternate month spread fluctuates frequently between 20-50 yuan / ton, the SMM copper price still maintains the quotation for the current month until the delivery exchange month. This morning, the 1911 contract quotation rose by 40 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton, the supply of abundant holders quoted enthusiastically, the transaction was blocked, the holder took the initiative to lower the quotation, good copper quoted water 30 to 40 yuan / ton range, flat copper as low as 20 yuan / ton, wet copper concentrated in the discount of 30 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton. Market quotation for 1910 contract, good copper rising water 80 yuan / ton near, flat water copper quotation for rising water 50 yuan / ton near, wet copper rising water 20 yuan / ton near. Subject to the recent strict control of logistics, downstream careful to take goods, still wait and see, delivery day market activity is low, delivery day to the month quotation is lower. Today's market quotation around the 1911 contract launched, the end of the afternoon, low water flat water copper won the favor of some long single users, flat water copper bargain support rising water to stabilize. In the afternoon, the spot market basically quoted prices for next month's contracts. Due to the recent entry of imported copper into the market, sufficient inventory made traders passively reduce prices. In the afternoon, prices were significantly lowered, and lower prices were still purchased downstream, but overall trading is still difficult to see a lively market. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 30-40 yuan / ton, good copper reported 40-50 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 46960 yuan / ton-47020 yuan / ton.

 

 

Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1719.5 per ton in the morning. In Asia, Lun Aluminium tried to repair its decline the day before, hitting a high of $1723.5 a tonne in the afternoon. In the afternoon, as the trading time approached, Lun aluminum weakened rapidly, and the center of gravity of the shock moved down, as of 15: 00, aluminum was at $1715 / ton. In Europe, Lun Aluminium remained weak, hitting a low of $1712 a tonne, up from $1712.5 as of 16: 52. Compared with other non-ferrous metals, Lun aluminum fundamentals are weak, the recent overseas alumina transaction prices continue to fall, and the weakening center of gravity of domestic aluminum prices failed to give Lun aluminum support, Lun aluminum is expected to continue to remain weak shock, test below the $1700 / ton integer level support, the next support level at $1680 / ton.

 

Shanghai aluminum main force 1912 contract completed the exchange month. Opened in the morning at 13750 yuan / ton, after the opening of a small number of short entrants to continue to suppress aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum low touched 13755 yuan / ton. After the short closed out, some of the bulls took advantage of the momentum to pursue, Shanghai aluminum to maintain shock upward repair the day before the decline. Intraday several times touched a high of 13790 yuan / ton, afternoon short entry, short more profit-taking, Shanghai aluminum closed at 13765 yuan / ton. Positions increased by 3156 to 223790, while Shanghai Aluminum Index positions fell 10370 to 660214. Of these, the turnover of 1912 contracts decreased by 6832 to 93580 to more than 1911 contracts completed by the main force of the month. Today is the delivery date. In recent months, the contract position of about 1910 was reduced by 9630 to 18050, with a settlement price of $13760 / tonne and a delivery volume of 45125 tonnes. In terms of fundamentals, Shanghai Aluminum still maintains a stable consumption at this stage and expects the pattern of increased supply pressure. In this context, due to the continued removal of storage and the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, short stage profits closed, Shanghai aluminum stopped falling. It is expected that the consumption will be stable during the week, the going to the warehouse will continue, and the downward momentum of Shanghai aluminum will be weakened.

 

Aluminum in the early afternoon of the month before the first trading stage to maintain a wide range of volatility, the second trading stage all the way up. In the morning, the spot transaction prices of the two places in Shanghai Wuxi market are mostly concentrated in the range of 13780-13790 yuan / ton, the price is about 20-30 yuan / ton, the price is basically the same as yesterday, the price in Hangzhou is between 13800-13820 yuan / ton, as the aluminum first suppresses and then rises, the spot price in Shanghai and tin begins to concentrate in 13790-13810 yuan / ton. Today, the market supply is tight, the morning market transaction is more active, buyers and sellers have a higher trading enthusiasm, with the rise of aluminum futures, the holder began to cherish the sale, although the middleman has a strong willingness to accept the goods, but at this time it is more difficult to close the transaction at a preferential price, the two sides began to deadlock, less and more. Downstream manufacturers today mainly go on demand, some downstream have the willingness to purchase, but due to the reduction in shipments at the later stage of the shippers, the actual transactions between the two sides are not much. Aluminum in the afternoon to maintain the interval shock, due to delivery that month, the afternoon market transaction atmosphere is light, a small number of cardholders quoted in the vicinity of 13790 yuan / ton, the disk rose about 20 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders.

 

 

Lead: within the day, Shanghai lead 1911 contract opened at 16805 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead shock rose, the high once rose to 16895 yuan / ton, after bearing pressure on the 5th and 60th moving average, Shanghai lead shock fell back, and temporarily stabilized in the 16810 yuan line, finally reported at 16810 yuan / ton, down 155 yuan / ton, down 0.91%, the position increased by 2070 hands to 53044 hands. Shanghai lead break down, below temporarily look at the support strength of 16700 yuan platform, if the platform is pierced, then Shanghai lead will officially enter the downlink channel. In addition, the Shanghai lead 1910 contract entered delivery, opened at 16860 yuan / ton, there was no trading order at the beginning of the market, and in the afternoon, with the shock of the main contract weakening, the 1910 contract followed the downward trend, and finally quoted at 16770 yuan / ton, settlement price 16850 yuan / ton, delivery volume of 9350 tons, position increased by 20 hands to 3740 hands.

 

Within days, Lun lead opened at US $2137.5 / tonne. In Asia, Lun lead rose rapidly at the beginning of the session, and then basically operated in a narrow range of US $2140. Later, with the Shanghai lead shock weakening, Lun lead followed the decline, and once fell to US $2132 / tonne. After entering the European period, Lun lead rose rapidly, recovered the intraday decline, and once touched as high as US $2156 / ton, as of 16: 45, Lun lead was quoted at US $2154.5 / ton. Up $16.5 a tonne, or 0.77 per cent. The overall running center of gravity of Lun lead is still gradually upward, there is no sign of breaking position on the technical graph for the time being, and we still think that there may be a breakthrough in the short term, but considering that there is not too much buying and rising point on the fundamentals of Lun lead, so maintain the point of view of high concussion for the time being.

 

Shanghai market Sands, South, Mu Ron lead 16850 yuan / ton, 1911 contract flat water quotation. Period lead weak shock, and today is delivery, the holder quotation is limited, the high price mood does not change, but the recycled refined lead discount expands, generally reports to the SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton leaves the factory, individual hears the discount 400 yuan / ton, at the same time the storage battery market consumption turns weak, the downstream only purchases with the rigid demand, the overall market transaction activity is poor.

 

Guangdong market South China lead 16875 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up to 50 yuan / ton quotation; southern storage south 16865 yuan / ton, 1911 contract flat water quotation. Lead price low weak shock, downstream consumption gradually turned to the off-season, the market transaction is dull.

 

Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16775 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price low weak shock, downstream wait-and-see, market transactions continue a light trend.

 

Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16775-16825 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to flat water quotation (traders); Hunan Jingui 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper industry 16845 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 20 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory 16475-16525 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300350 yuan / ton. Lead price low weak shock, downstream consumption gradually turn light, the overall transaction is light.

 

 

Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $2415.5 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, Lun Zinc was arranged around the daily average, and then broke through the suppression of the daily average. the center of gravity of Lun Zinc moved slightly up to US $2420 / ton, and entered the European trading session. Lun Zinc rose slightly and climbed slowly above the daily average. as of 16: 28, Lun Zinc closed at US $2430 / ton, up 13 US dollars / ton, up 0.54%. Geneva zinc into yin and yang, supported by the lower EMA, MACD red column gradually elongated, showing Lun zinc or a certain upward space. Superimposed LME zinc stocks recorded a decline for several consecutive days, coupled with the LME zinc structure on the continuous BACK, indicates that the overseas spot is relatively tight, but also supported the stabilization of zinc prices. Pay attention to the pressure at the top of the $2439 platform at night.

 

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 18955 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc as a whole around the daily average narrow amplitude shock, then into the empty, Shanghai zinc steadily upward, break the above Wanjiu gate pressure level, lift the center of gravity to 19040 US dollars / ton line, in the afternoon by the outer plate uplink, Shanghai zinc also climbed slightly, at the end of the day in 19060 yuan / ton first-line horizontal concussion, closed up 19070 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton from the previous trading, up 0.05%. Trading volume decreased by 40, 000 hands to 159000 hands, position increased by 13700 hands to 193000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc turned negative and received yang, standing above the moving average, and the increase of positions in the day was dominated by long positions, indicating that the confidence of long heads increased slightly under the recovery of macro emotion, and there was a certain degree of action energy in Shanghai and zinc in the short term. Within days, the total outflow of 10 and 11 contracts exceeded 40 million, the main 12 contract funds poured into more than 100 million, the near weak and far strong pattern strengthened, in the short term also give Shanghai zinc certain support, pay attention to the upper 19120 yuan pressure level at night.

 

In addition, the intra-day Shanghai zinc 1910 contract completed delivery, opened at 18900 yuan / ton, the beginning of the market basically around the daily average horizontal finishing, then, driven steadily by the main contract, Shanghai zinc 1910 contract strengthened, the center of gravity rose to 18990 yuan / ton, finally closed at 19000 yuan / ton, settlement price 18925 yuan / ton, delivery volume of 11125 tons, position reduced 2580 to 5570 hands.

 

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 19075-19135 yuan / ton, that of Shuangyan and Huize was 19085-19145 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 110-120 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan and Huize was 120-130 yuan / ton, and that of zinc was 19005-19065 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, the holder reported an increase of 120-130 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract, and the mood of shipping and receiving goods in the market was relatively low. In the second trading session, the zinc price continued to fluctuate around Wanjiu, and the holder lowered the price of rising water by 110-120 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. As a result of the lead and zinc international annual meeting, the trader market transaction is still relatively light, some downstream enterprises purchase on demand, maintain the rigid demand purchase volume, the market overall trading is general.

 

The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 18930-18980 yuan / ton, the Shanghai zinc 1911 contract was reported near 30-50 yuan / ton, and the discount of Guangdong stock market was narrowed from 180 yuan / ton to 160 yuan / ton yesterday. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant. The morning quotation of the holder is concentrated in the average price of-10 yuan / ton, part of which is quoted near the average price, and the price of the contract is quoted in the vicinity of the 11 contract discount of 30-40 yuan / ton; entering the second trading session, the market transaction price is concentrated in the discount of 40-50 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, the disk is pulled up, the willingness to buy downstream is low, and the trading between traders is also light. On the whole, the transaction situation of Guangdong market today is worse than that of yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18930-18980 yuan / ton near.

 

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 1907020580 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 1907019190 / ton. The 1911 contract rose 70-170 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market was stable at 40 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods is still tight. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in about 130-170 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and the quotation of ordinary brand source is about 7080 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk pull down, light trading, holders see the trend down rising water, but the willingness to buy has not been boosted, downstream buying is still cautious, only to maintain rigid demand to take goods. On the whole, the transaction today is slightly worse than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in the vicinity of 19070-19190 yuan / ton, while Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 19020-19140 yuan / ton.

 

 

Tin: Lunxi electronic disk today 16560 yuan / ton after the opening of the Asian session, the beginning of the session fell to $16470 / ton after a small shock upward. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi quickly rushed up to $16600 / ton and then again came under pressure below the opening price. As of 17: 00, the latest price of Lunxi was $16540 / ton, showing a small negative line, with the upper part of the entity bearing pressure on the 40-day moving average and the lower shadow line near the 5-20 moving average. It is expected that the support below Lunxi is near the 20-day moving average of $16400 / tonne, and the upper resistance is near the 60-day moving average of $16800 / tonne. In the near future, you can look at the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in September (%) on Wednesday.

 

Shanghai tin 2001 contract last night after the opening of 137350 yuan / ton, the beginning of the session maintained in the daily average of 137300 yuan / ton horizontal finishing, then Shanghai tin quickly fell to a night low of 136180 yuan / ton after hitting the bottom, back below the opening price. After the opening of 136990 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, it remained in the vicinity of 136700 yuan / ton below the daily average line, and finally closed at 136850 yuan / ton, down 370 yuan / ton, or 0.27%. The trading volume was 27176 hands, the position was 39944 hands, and the number was reduced by 248 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a small negative line, the physical part is located near the 20-day moving average, the bottom is supported by the 5-day moving average, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 10-day moving average. It is expected that the resistance above Shanghai tin is near the previous platform high of 138000 yuan / ton, and the lower support is near the 10-day moving average of 136000 yuan / ton. Today, Shanghai tin 1910 contract delivery, as of today's close Shanghai tin 1910 contract closed at 136000 yuan / ton, settlement price of 135490 yuan / ton, with Shanghai tin 1911 contract price difference of 540 yuan / ton, position 12 hands, delivery volume 6 hands.

 

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price of 136000-138000 yuan / ton, downstream enterprises due to the downward existence of tin prices wait-and-see sentiment buy weak. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market is weak today. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi Shengshui 700-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi discount 100-200 yuan / ton, small brand discount 300-500 yuan / ton.

 

 

Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $17195 a tonne today. After the opening, Lunni was under pressure and the daily average line fell to $16800 / tonne to stabilize the concussion. In the afternoon, Lunni fell again, down $16710 / ton, and then slightly revised down to $16960 / tonne, with a narrow range of fluctuations around the daily average, at $16885 / tonne at 16: 30, down $410 / tonne, or 2.37%, from the previous day's settlement price, with volume down 10463 hands to 3341 hands and 277000 positions. Lunni temporarily closed in the middle of the negative column, fell below the 40-day moving average, facing a number of moving averages above, tonight focused on whether Lunni can hold the $16800 / tonne level.

 

This evening, IMF held a global economic forecast conference in Washington, D.C.

 

Today, Russian nickel is 200 yuan higher than Shanghai nickel 1911 to 300 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel is 500-600 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract, and the discount is higher because of the recent improvement in trading, and the nickel price has dropped sharply since last night. Today, the decline continues, and the holders generally support the rise. Today's nickel prices as a whole fell more than 3000 yuan / ton from the same trading session yesterday, and the overall transaction converged with yesterday, but the feedback from individual traders was not as active as yesterday. Today, transactions around 133500 were slightly active, it was more difficult for traders to replenish their warehouses, and transactions between downstream and traders improved. Recently Jinchuan company intends to raise water, Jinchuan company ex-factory price of 134000 yuan / ton, 3700 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. Mainstream transactions with 133300 yuan / ton-134300 yuan / ton. After the nickel price fluctuated around the narrow range of 133600 in the afternoon, the late trading was weaker, the market transaction was slightly weaker and in the morning, but all day, the trading converged with yesterday, and the downstream pick up goods in the past two days was better than before. The mainstream transaction is 133500-137500 yuan / ton.

 

Shanghai nickel 1912 contract opened today at 134480 yuan / ton, after the opening shock lower, to 132000 yuan / ton level to be supported, the upper pressure 132800 yuan / ton first-line range of small shock operation, until the end of the day, closed at 131920 yuan / ton, down 4730 yuan / ton, down 3.46%, trading volume increased by 640000 hands to 1.544 million hands, position increased by 38000 hands to 357000 hands. Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed in the negative line, fell below the 40-day moving average support, down 132000 yuan / ton level, pay attention to whether Shanghai nickel can hold 132000 yuan / ton level at night.

 

Today is the delivery date of Shanghai Nickel 1910 contract. Shanghai Nickel 1910 is open at 135560 yuan / ton today. The trading volume was reduced by 1224 hands to 1344 hands, the position was reduced by 24 hands to 20040 hands, the actual delivery volume was 10020 tons, and the settlement price was 134300 yuan / ton.

 

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