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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 14th
Oct 14,2019 17:30CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 14th
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today, Yapanlun copper opened at $5804.5 / tonne. Great progress was made in Sino-US trade negotiations and Brexit over the weekend. Copper prices began to rise after a short-term rebound, and copper prices rose to $5820.5 / tonne at noon and remained high in front of the European market. After entering the European session, much of the benefits from trade negotiations and Brexit progress were digested, while Chinese import and export data in September still hinted at weak global demand, sterling fell 0.5 per cent against the dollar in the morning, the dollar index rebounded significantly, bears began to actively increase their positions, and copper prices struggled to maintain their highs, stabilizing all the way down to $5770 a tonne. As of 16: 30, Lun Copper closed down 0.39% at $5780.5 / tonne, with the dollar index at 98.473 and US crude oil at 54.31. The macro data are light at night. At present, the copper close yin, MACD maintain Hongzhu, there are more than one moving average below, there is still support on the technical side. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to $5780 / tonne and continue to fluctuate around $5800 / tonne. Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 47100 yuan / ton, then the center of gravity moved down to below the daily average line, around 47040 yuan / ton near the narrow range until the afternoon close an hour before the end of the day, then some of the long profit-taking, copper prices fell slightly, closed at 46970 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, up 0.11%. Today, the main contract position of Shanghai Copper increased by 12000 hands to 224000 hands, the trading volume increased by 17000 hands to 154000 hands, the Shanghai Copper Index position increased by 2684 hands to 552000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 10 000 hands to 311000 hands. The overall stability of the day at a high level, mainly due to the recent Sino-US trade temporary "truce" and Britain's optimistic prospects for Brexit, the market mood warmed up, good copper market stand high, but still need to guard against the news surface is digested after the macro weak situation dragged down the market, the current Shanghai copper close Yin, pay attention to the lower 10-day moving average support level in the short term, waiting for the outer plate guidance, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stabilize 47000 yuan / ton level.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 70 ~ 120 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47040 yuan / ton ~ 47100 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47060 yuan / ton ~ 47120 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper re-impact along the 47000 yuan / ton shock finishing, the import window continues to open, the weekend import copper customs clearance completed centralized warehousing, import copper supply significantly increased, delivery approaching, the disk almost no price difference every other month, the holder is eager to change cash, the number of people who lose goods increases. The morning market holder quotation starts from the rising water 120 ~ rising 140 yuan / ton, cannot obtain the market approval, so the spot rising water again shows the rapid downward trend, in the rising water 100 ~ rising 120 yuan / ton briefly stays the trace transaction, in order to seize the transaction opportunity, the market is in the importer's first reduction under the good copper from 90 to 100 yuan / ton still has the pressure price space, the flat water copper drops to the rising water 70 ~ 80 yuan / ton only then has the slow decline sign, the market is in the lead under the importer to lower the price directly to rise 90 ~ 100 yuan / ton still has the pressure price space, the flat water copper drops to the rising water 70 ~ 80 yuan / ton only then has the slow drop sign. Wet copper consumption willingness is low, the supply of goods increased significantly, even if reduced to 30 yuan / ton of water are lack of attention. Near the delivery date, the supply of more goods difficult to cash pressure, the holder of the willingness to further strengthen, rising water tends to the level of delivery. The general performance of the downstream is mainly dominated by the recent increase in transportation costs under strict logistics control and the cautious mood that copper prices are difficult to form a breakthrough in the first line of 47000 yuan. In the afternoon, the willingness to exchange goods in the market is still eager, in the context of competing shipments, spot quotations continue to decline slightly, flat copper has been reduced to rising water 5060 yuan / ton, good copper is reduced to 80 yuan / ton, it is still difficult to have a large number of receiving groups, afternoon quotation Pingshui copper rose 59 million 60 yuan / ton, good copper 80 yuan 90 yuan / ton, the transaction price continued to drop to 47000 yuan 47090 yuan / ton.



Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1724.5 per ton in the morning. In Asia, lunchtime aluminum maintained a narrow range of shocks, running above $1720 / tonne, the end of the plate Panlun aluminum weakened, low touched $1719.5 / tonne, as of 15: 00 aluminums at $1721.5 / tonne. After entering the European period, Lun aluminum above the pressure daily average, the center of gravity down, LME inventory report today Lun aluminum increased by another 9400 tons, so Lun aluminum several times low 1719.5 US dollars / ton, as of 16: 50 aluminum at 1722.5 US dollars / ton. Due to the strength of the US index, the overall diving of non-ferrous metals turned negative in the afternoon, and it is expected that Lun aluminum will continue to maintain a low shock below the 10-day moving average at night.


Shanghai aluminum main contract 1911 opened at 13765 yuan / ton. After the opening of Shanghai aluminum, short stage profit left, part of the short take advantage of the trend to follow, Shanghai aluminum quickly touched 13810 yuan / ton, has not yet touched the upper 5-day moving average. The high caused the short to continue to pour in, Shanghai aluminum quickly fell low touched 13720 yuan / ton, Shanghai aluminum maintained a low shock in the afternoon. In the afternoon, many empty positions were closed one after another, and the Shanghai aluminum shock rebounded to close at 13755 yuan / ton. Positions fell 10618 to 179490, while Shanghai Aluminum Index positions fell 13750 to 670584. It is worth noting that the monthly spread between Shanghai and aluminum continues to narrow, 11 and 12 contract spread is only 20 yuan / ton, still maintain the back structure. At present, Shanghai Aluminum continues to face the problem of stable fundamentals, unclear consumer side and increased pressure on the supply side in the future. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum consumption has changed from a rebound in consumption to an increase in supply pressure, and there is a big gap, but at the same time, it should be noted that the current domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption is still relatively stable, and today's electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to drop by 32000 tons. Electrolytic aluminum still needs to be given a certain profit margin, so it is not appropriate to be overly bearish. Shanghai aluminum is expected to remain weak in the evening.


In the spot market, aluminum was volatile and slipped before noon that month. Most of the spot transaction prices in Shanghai Wuxi market are between 1378013800 yuan / ton, and the price is about 10-30 yuan / ton. The price is nearly 180 yuan / ton lower than last Friday's price. Hangzhou price is 13800-13820 yuan / ton. It is understood that the price difference between the current month and the next month on Friday was around 80 yuan / ton, and today's monthly difference narrowed to 20 yuan / ton. As a result of certain expectations for the future rising water, the spot price fell by more than 100 yuan today. The middleman received the goods at the low level very actively. A large household received the goods normally, but the shippers shipped relatively few goods, and the overall performance was less and more, but the delivery was still OK. Considering that today's prices are more favorable than last Friday, downstream manufacturers have a small amount of replenishment today, but they still have a wait-and-see attitude towards future prices, so the overall downstream demand is mainly rigid. The overall transaction in East China is OK today. In the afternoon, aluminum maintained fluctuations in the range, a small number of holders quoted in 1379013800 yuan / ton, the disk flat to rise 10 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders.



Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at US $2178 / tonne. In the Asian period, the market trading was light, the overall center of gravity moved slowly down, and the overall operation basically revolved around the US $2170 line. Entering the European period, non-ferrous metals collectively dived downwards. Lun lead followed the downward trend. At one point, the low level fell to US $2135.5 / ton, and at the same time pierced the 5-day and 10-day moving average support. The trend was basically weak throughout the day. It ended down 1.81 per cent at $2137.5 a tonne. Lun lead technology on the surface of the long arrangement, short-term material callback space is limited, below temporarily pay attention to the 20-day moving average support.


Within days, the Shanghai lead 1911 contract opened at 17040 yuan / ton, and the expectation of a good trade war gradually fell to the ground at the beginning of the day. Today, the domestic release of CPI and PPI data, such as expected pressure still exists, part of the profit is off the market, during the Shanghai lead due to weak fundamentals, short entry in the morning is very firm, Shanghai lead quickly dived at the beginning of the day, once dived to 18860 yuan / ton, after 18890 yuan in a narrow range of operation, the market trading gradually light, and finally reported at 16920 yuan / ton. Positions increased by 1128 to 50974. Shanghai lead newspaper closed long upper film line, ten thousand seven above throw pressure is bigger, short-term still has the possibility of high fall.


Shanghai market Jinsha, southern lead 16900-16920 yuan / ton, 1911 contract flat water to rising water 20 yuan / ton quotation; Mu Ron lead 16900 yuan / ton, 1911 contract flat water quotation. Due to the impact of the low price of recycled lead, the purchase of rigid demand downstream is still biased towards recycled lead, and the transaction of electrolytic lead trading market has not been significantly improved for the time being, due to the impact of low price of recycled lead, the purchase of downstream rigid demand is still biased towards recycled lead.


Guangdong market South China lead 16900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton quotation; lead price high rapidly downward, the overall market procurement is still relatively low, the market transaction is dull. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16825 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 25 yuan / ton quotation. Lead prices fell back, mainly downstream wait-and-see, market transactions continued last week light trend. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16800-16850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to flat water quotation (traders); Hunan Jingui 16700 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper industry 16870 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 20 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory 16500-16550 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300350 yuan / ton. Lead prices fell back, downstream worry about prices continue to probe, procurement is still more cautious, the overall transaction is light.



Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2425.5 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, the daily average of zinc pressure in Geneva went down slightly and found support above the integer level of US $2400 / tonne. The center of gravity held steady at the line of US $2405 / tonne. After that, Zinc climbed slowly and sorted out horizontally near the daily moving average. In the afternoon, the dollar rebounded, especially when it entered the European trading session. The integer level of 2400 US dollars / ton was significantly suppressed, falling below the US $2400 mark at one point. It fell $2393.5 a tonne and rebounded slightly above its daily moving average. At 17: 00, Lun Zinc closed at $2408 a tonne, down $15 per tonne, or 0.54 per cent. The rebound of zinc in Geneva has been blocked, but the moving average support below is still in existence. The substantial progress made in the Sino-US trade consultations has gradually warmed up the macro sentiment, superimposed on the overseas sustained back structure, overseas spot supply or tightening, Lun zinc may be supported to a certain extent, and pay attention to whether it can effectively stand above 2400 US dollars / ton at night.


The intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 19045 yuan / ton, but failed to make the line, Shanghai zinc pressure steadily downward, the center of gravity downward, Shanghai zinc in 18980 yuan / ton horizontal finishing, afternoon mostly into the empty, Shanghai zinc slightly upward, and then dragged down by the external market decline, closed down 18925 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan / ton, down 0.24%. Trading volume increased by 65426 hands to 199000 hands, position increased by 26528 hands to 179000 hands. Although Shanghai zinc shows two consecutive negative, but below still stands in each road moving average line above, shows the rebound upward has the pressure, in particular the domestic three places social inventory recorded a small increase on Monday, shows the downstream from the National Day replenishment to the smooth consumption, or limits the Shanghai zinc upward pace to a certain extent, pay attention to the lower part of the support based on the moving average can Xu Li again rush to the Wanjiu pass.


The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 1908019090 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 1908019100 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 120-130 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 130 yuan / ton in November, and that of Shuangyan was 19010-19020 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, the holder reported a 120-130 yuan / ton rise in the 1911 contract, with few transactions in the market, and the trading mood was low; in the second trading session, the zinc price stabilized, and the holder kept the rising water quotation up 130 yuan / ton on the 1911 contract; due to the annual meeting of lead and zinc today, trading in the trader market was relatively light, and some downstream enterprises began to purchase on demand after the shock of zinc prices fell.


The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 18900-18940 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai zinc 1911 contract was reported near 40-50 yuan / ton, while the discount of Guangdong stock market compared with Shanghai stock market was enlarged from 150 yuan / ton to 180 yuan / ton on Friday. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant. The morning quotation of the holder is concentrated in the vicinity of the average price, part of which is quoted near the average price of-10 yuan / ton, and the holder of the contract quotation is reported near the discount of 40 yuan / ton to the 11 contract; entering the second trading session, the market transaction price is concentrated in the discount of 40-50 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, the willingness to buy downstream becomes worse again, and the transaction atmosphere between traders is also relatively light. Overall, the transaction in Guangdong today is slightly light, and the transaction situation is basically flat compared with last Friday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18900-18940 yuan / ton near.


The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 1904020640 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 1904019140 / ton. The contract for 1911 rose by 100-170 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market was stable at 40 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the supply circulation continues to be slightly tense, the market for the circulation of Iranian zinc demand is less, its shipment is slightly unsmooth. The quotation for the supply of high-priced brands is concentrated around 150-170 yuan / ton for 11 liters of water, while for ordinary brands, it is about 100120 yuan / ton for 11 liters of water. The disk is arranged in a narrow range of 18960 yuan / ton, the rising water is basically flat on Friday, the price rises slightly, the downstream is more bearish, the willingness to buy is on the low side, and only maintains the rigid demand to take the goods. Overall, today's deal continues last Friday's light trend. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in the vicinity of 19040-19140 yuan / ton, while Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18990-19090 yuan / ton.



Tin: after the opening of US $16600 / ton today, the sub-session generally remained in the vicinity of the opening price. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi was under pressure. As of 17: 00, the latest price of Lunxi was $16600 / ton, showing a cross-star line, supported by the 40-day moving average below. It is expected that the lower support of Lunxi is near the 5-20 moving average of $16500 / ton, and the upper resistance is near the 60-day moving average of $16800 / ton. In the near future, you can look at the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in September (%) on Wednesday.


Shanghai tin 2001 contract on Friday night after the opening of 136480 yuan / ton, the beginning of the session to a night high of 137230 yuan / ton after the rapid decline to a daily low of 136050 yuan / ton after a small rise, and then until the end of the night Shanghai tin overall maintained at 136300 yuan / ton shock finishing. After the opening of 136340 yuan / ton in early trading today, affected by the rise of Lunxi Changyang on Friday, Shanghai tin quickly rose to a daily high of 138050 yuan / ton and maintained a horizontal arrangement near 137700 yuan / tonne. At the end of the session, due to the long profit-taking, the Shanghai tin came under pressure, and finally closed at 137220 yuan / ton, up 1070 yuan / ton, or 0.79%. The trading volume was 36828 hands, the position was 40192 hands, an increase of 1324 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a positive line, the physical part above the pressure on the 20-day moving average, the bottom by the 5-day moving average support, the lower shadow line to the 10-day moving average near, it is expected that the resistance above the 20-day tin moving average is near 137500 yuan / ton, and the lower support is near the 10-day moving average of 136000 yuan / ton.


In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 137000-139000 yuan / ton. In fact, there is a low price source near 136500 yuan / ton in the market. Some dealers and downstream enterprises buy at bargain prices, and the low price source of fixed prices in the market is favored by the market. Shanghai tin spot market today the overall transaction atmosphere is general. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi water 800-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word flat water-water 400 yuan / ton, small discount 300500 yuan / ton.



Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $17500 per tonne today. Before noon, Lunni was pressurized for a 10-day moving average, with a slight concussion around the 5-day moving average of $17460 / tonne. In the afternoon, at about 14:00, affected by the strength of the dollar index, Shanghai nickel fluctuated downwards, falling US $17175 / ton, followed by a 40-day moving average of US $17200 / ton to support a slight upward revision, which was reported at US $17240 / ton as of 16:00, down US $280 / ton, or 1.6%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day. The trading volume was reduced by 4881 hands to 2740 hands, and the position volume was 272000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the middle of the negative column, down the 40-day moving average of $17200 / ton, the upper 5 / 10 moving average of $17500 / tonne is still facing strong resistance, this night to pay attention to whether Lunni can hold the $17200 ton level. The data were relatively light tonight.


Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened at 137280 yuan / ton today, Shanghai nickel today under the overall pressure 5-day moving average, the bottom is 135000 yuan / ton level support, the center of gravity around 136000 yuan / ton line, the interval shock operation, the final close at 135770 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day fell 760 yuan / ton, down 0.56%, position increased by 10 000 hands to 319000 hands, trading volume increased by 355000 hands to 903000 hands. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed in the small negative line of the Shanghai Nickel Line, which broke through the 20-day moving average, exploring the 138000 yuan / ton level, and the K-column closed near the 5-day moving average as a whole. In the evening, we pay attention to the concussion of 136000 yuan / ton Shanghai Nickel 5-day moving average.


Today, Russian nickel is 50 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911, Jinchuan Nickel is 200-300 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract, the discount is slightly higher than last week, and Russian nickel is slightly higher than last week, mainly due to the recent slight improvement in Russian nickel transactions, while imports maintain a large loss, superimposed near the delivery date, the holder is quite high, but there are still individual traders feedback flat water can also be shipped. Jinchuan Shengshui reported 300 yuan / ton this morning, but the general feedback transaction is less, individual feedback can be reduced by 50-100 yuan / ton. Today, the overall performance of nickel prices is stable, trading near 135800 is slightly concentrated, entering traders generally feedback that a small amount of Russian nickel transactions, Jinchuan nickel transactions are not as active as Russian nickel. Market acceptance of prices around 135000 is better than before. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 137700 yuan / ton, the same as last Friday. In the afternoon nickel price continues the morning trend, the market trading is flat, the spot transaction all day is better than before, the price is stable between the traders and downstream has the replenishment action, the mainstream transaction is 136800-137300 yuan / ton.


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