[2019.10.14 Nickel Internal Morning meeting Summary] inventory continues to plummet nickel prices continue to shock operation Jiangsu Yanba overloaded steel freight soar

On the macro front, the dollar index fell to 98.188 on Friday, its lowest level since Sept. 20, mainly due to optimistic prospects for trade talks between China and the United States, as the outlook for Brexit began to clear, safe-haven buying cooled and risk appetite improved. Oil prices jumped to a two-week high, US oil rose nearly 2 per cent, oil distribution rose above $60, market risk appetite picked up oil prices, and the night of the attack on Iranian tankers contributed to the rally.

Nickel spot: on October 11, Russian nickel reported flat water to 100 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai nickel 1911, Jinchuan nickel generally reported 200-300 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 contract, rising water continued to maintain stability yesterday, Jinchuan nickel rose water, the holder reported up 300 yuan / ton. Today, nickel prices out of the deep V, early trading hours, nickel prices from 137300 all the way down to 135800 near, the spot market response was mediocre, spot transactions did not improve significantly. After traders agreed on the source of goods before delivering to steel mills yesterday, the market was flat today. Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded to near the opening price in 135800, and the market continued its morning mood, with fewer buyers entering the market. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 137700 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. In the afternoon, nickel prices continue to operate on the strong side, the market is still active and weak, traders continue to raise the discount, the mainstream transaction in 137300-137600 yuan / ton.

Stainless steel: according to SMM research, the national output of stainless steel in September was 2.4721 million tons, down 4.99% from the previous month, an increase of 8.38% over the same period last year. In September, the production of 300 series decreased by 5.74% month-on-month, 2.1% to 1.1594 million tons compared with the same period last year. The production of 300 series was reduced by 300 series due to the loss of some non-integrated steel mills and the difficulty of purchasing raw materials, and the production was reduced by 300 series or transferred to other departments. SMM surveyed the initial output of 2.4395 million tons of stainless steel in October, of which 1.1795 million tons were 1.1795 million tons, an increase of 1.73 percent over the previous month.

On the inventory side, Lunni stocks on 11 October were 98562 tons, a decrease of 4134 tons from 10 October.

Nickel price judgment: although the recent actual fundamentals performance is general, but due to the sharp decline in nickel inventory, the disk is still supported. Overnight Shanghai nickel closed in the upper shadow line small negative column, the shadow line to explore the 20-day moving average, but the K column as a whole is still in the vicinity of the 5-day moving average narrow amplitude concussion operation. Today, we still need to pay attention to the resistance of 137000 yuan / tonne. Lunni closed in the upper shadow line, the shadow line to explore 17800 US dollars / ton line, K column as a whole standing above the 5-day moving average, today pay attention to whether Lunni can stand on the 5-day moving average.