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SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2019.10.8-2019.10.11)
Oct 13,2019 16:45CST
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Source:SMM
SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2019.10.8-2019.10.11)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

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SMM, 11 Oct:

After returning from the long National Day holiday, the market has just faced a weak performance of important economic data in Europe and the United States. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates further, the US index hovers around 99 points, and domestic metals come under pressure first. However, as a new round of high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States begins again, market confidence has boosted, domestic metals have rebounded from low levels, recovered some of the decline, and stepped out of the V-shaped situation. SMMI fell 0.23% during the week, among which lead led the decline. Shanghai period lead high open low walk, smelter maintenance after the accumulation of obvious, the price difference between primary lead and recycled lead opened, spot discount expanded, SMMI.Pb fell 0.88% in the first place. Shanghai copper festival after the first suppression and then rise, lower 46500 yuan / ton after the spot bargain replenishment and short positions under the low recovery, recovered part of the decline, SMMI.Cu week fell 0.51%. The return performance of Shanghai nickel after the festival has been weaker than that of Lunni, hovering in the range of 135000-139000 yuan / ton, the spot part of the bargain replenishment makes Russian nickel no longer discount, SMMI.Ni weekly fell 0.44%. Aluminum opened high and walked low, future consumption gradually showed a stable weakening trend or will depress the four levels of aluminum prices, SMMI.Al weekly decline of 0.07%. Zinc and tin can rise within the week, SMMI.Zn rose 1.06%, Lun zinc in the overseas Skorpion smelter closure news, and then rushed to the $2400 gate, after a long holiday, the social inventory is still declining, the spot rising steadily, the performance is on the strong side. SMMI.Sn weekly rose 1.11%, Shanghai tin center of gravity significantly higher than before the festival, although the downstream procurement after the festival is more cautious, but the spot and the rising period is obvious. With the concentration of economic data at home and abroad next week, market expectations are weak, the dollar index may be under downward pressure from the global economy, and the development trend of Sino-US trade negotiations will also lay the performance atmosphere for the market, and will face delivery next week. Metal items will be more led by their own fundamental trends.

 

Copper: Lun copper showed a low pull up trend this week. Earlier this week, disturbed by uncertainty about Brexit, the superposition of economic data released this week from the US and Europe, especially the recent US and European non-farm payrolls and PPI data, were sharply lower than expected, prompting increased speculation about the Fed's interest rate cuts and a preference for safe haven assets. Therefore, the performance of copper in the early Zhou Dynasty was basically maintained in the low shock. But then, the positive mood of a new round of trade talks between China and the United States boosted the market. Lun Copper rose from a low of $5665 / tonne during the week, rising 1.63% in one day, pushing up $5790 / tonne. The technical side breaks through the compression of all the daily averages, and the MACD index has a good turning point signal. This week, Lun copper mainly showed a long increase in positions, the position increased by more than 6800 hands to 279000 hands, a weekly increase of 2.2 per cent.

Copper in Shanghai rebounded from the bottom this week. Copper prices fell at the beginning of the week mainly by macro disturbances, Lun copper fell during the festival, after the opening of the Shanghai copper fell, all the way down 46500 yuan / ton low. With the opening of a new round of negotiations between China and the United States to give the market a certain degree of confidence, Shanghai copper gradually rebounded, jumping higher over the weekend, and rebounded to explore the 47000 yuan / ton level again, touching a high level of 47060 yuan / ton. This week, the technical surface of Shanghai copper was partially supported by the recent moving average. This week, the overall trading volume of the Shanghai copper index increased by 746000 hands to 1.018 million hands, and the position increased by 13756 hands to 549000 hands. The V-shaped situation makes Shanghai Copper temporarily out of the trough area after the festival, and the backward movement of the position makes the position move backward to complete the main force change month.

On the spot side, the overall spot market quotation fluctuated greatly this week. On the first day after the festival, the spot quotation showed the phenomenon of overreporting and low going. In the morning, the market quotation was high. The holder tried to quote in the range of 150 yuan / ton to 190 yuan / ton, but the false high degree was high, so it could not be recognized by the market. So the spot rising water decreased to 80-120 yuan / ton in the afternoon market. Due to the Shanghai copper down to 46500 yuan / ton, in line with the downstream replenishment demand. Spot quotation with the active market began to raise prices to 150-180 yuan / ton. A sharp rebound over the weekend, import copper after the completion of customs clearance will enter the market, supply will increase, downstream stop, cardholders risk aversion to enhance, eager to cash, rising water once again showed a large downward trend of overreporting and low.

 

Aluminum: Lun aluminum is in a state of bottom recovery this week. It opened at US $1726.5 per ton at the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, due to the fall of the US index and the strong performance of domestic Shanghai aluminum, Lun aluminum returned to the 10-day moving average of $1730 / ton and tried to rush several times within the week, reaching a high of $1760 / ton. However, the domestic Shanghai aluminum only after the bright performance on Monday continued to close the negative, coupled with the US index continued to concussion running at the high level of 99, Lun aluminum on the impulse force is relatively limited, and with the upper 20 moving average down, Lun aluminum operating range is narrowing. In particular, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 1 per cent in a single day on Friday, and Lun aluminum hit the 10-day moving average below it. It was trading at $1739 a tonne as of Friday afternoon. Weekly Cang Lun Aluminium fell 3094 to 768472, mainly short positions, and LME inventories increased by 9975 tons to 974200 tons. In view of the current US and European economies are still weak, overseas electrolytic aluminum demand is difficult to improve, coupled with domestic Shanghai aluminum is still weak, considering the technical surface above the 20 moving down the upper pressure level, Lun aluminum concussion operation range narrowed, the center of gravity. In the data set in Europe and the United States next week, the performance is expected to be weak, the US index may weaken, and the non-ferrous metal is likely to be boosted by the emergence of a one-day shadow line that may try to rush up. Lun Aluminium is expected to run at 17301760 US dollars / tonne next week, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity.

This week, Shanghai aluminum first raised and then suppressed, in addition to Monday short positions closed the sun, recorded four Lianyin. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 13925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the 1911 week. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai Aluminum maintained a relatively narrow range of shocks, and the day's high was still 14000 yuan / ton, of which 14040 yuan / ton was reached on Wednesday. But at the same time, due to the above 5-day moving average down, the closing price continues to move down. The following two days of short power, Shanghai aluminum fell faster, as of Friday afternoon Shanghai aluminum low touched 13750 yuan / ton, closed at 13790 yuan / ton. The main force of Shanghai Aluminum increased its position by 444 to 190108 per week in 1911, and the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased its position by 7124 to 684334. On demand, short-term downstream orders are still flat compared with September, has not yet declined, while electrolytic aluminum enterprises return to production momentum progress is slow, so the probability will continue to go to the warehouse next week. But at the same time, in the long-term expectation, the demand is only stable and weak, difficult to see growth, at the same time, the industry profit is still relatively objective will promote the return of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to increase, near strong and weak is more obvious. Therefore, it is expected that next week aluminum prices to the electrolytic aluminum industry profits will gradually narrow, considering the current stage of consumption can also give a certain support, Shanghai aluminum main contract may be fully completed next week, shock operation in 13650yuan 13950 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, aluminum prices fluctuated and fell back this week, with spot prices falling more than 100 yuan from the beginning of the week to the weekend. The transaction prices in Shanghai and Wuxi markets are concentrated in the range of 13960-14080 yuan / ton, and on Friday, due to the large decline in aluminum, there are even low prices around 13900 yuan / ton in both places. This week, the actual spot discount is concentrated in the range of 20-50 yuan / ton, and the spot transaction price in Hangzhou is between 13970-14100 yuan / ton. Because the holders mostly empty their inventory before the festival, and have not yet received enough inventory in the short term after the festival, the spot is tight at the beginning of the week, the holder does not ship much, and the middlemen and traders receive the goods very actively. During the holiday, the stock of aluminum ingots accumulated more than 70,000 tons. As a large number of aluminum ingots entered the market, the stock of aluminum ingots fell back, and the spot gradually relaxed, but the transaction between buyers and sellers was mediocre. In the context of the daily decline in aluminum prices and the exchange of months next week, the market wait-and-see sentiment is gradually rising, the willingness of middlemen to accept goods has been restrained, near the weekend in the market a few large buyers procurement background, trading between traders is still OK. Downstream manufacturers returned to a small amount of replenishment at the beginning of the week, a small amount of stock near the weekend, but the volume of goods received this week is lower than market expectations, downstream procurement attitude is also on the sidelines.

 

Lead: this week, the concussion of lead fell back after brushing the high level of the last year, and the overall trend showed first and then suppressed. At the beginning of the week, the bulls added positions and continued to push up Lun lead, reaching a high of US $2192 / ton, breaking through a new high in nearly a year, but due to pressure at the US $2200 level and market rumors that Nyrstar's Port Pire lead smelter has obtained a new production license, under the resonance of double factors, the high level of Lun lead plummeted, breaking down the 5-day and 10-day moving average support one after another, and the low level reached 2117 US dollars / tonne. On the next two days, the US PPI/CPI inflation data fell short of expectations. Providing the Fed with room to cut interest rates, coupled with signs of improvement on the eve of Sino-US trade negotiations, non-ferrous metals rebounded collectively, and Lun lead followed the upward trend and recovered some of its decline. As of Friday, Lun lead was trading at $2155.5 / tonne, down 0.62 per cent a week. Next week, in the U.S. Economic data set, The monthly rate of CPI in the eurozone in September (0.1 per cent before 0.2 per cent), the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in September (0.4 per cent before 0.3 per cent), the monthly rate of commercial inventory in the United States in August (0.3 per cent before 0.4 per cent), the total number of permits built in September in the United States (142.5 before 136.5), the annualized number of new housing starts in the United States in September (136.4 before 136.4), The monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in September (0.6% before 0.1%), Only from the economic data released overseas next week, it is not difficult to find that expectations are pessimistic, or increase market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in October. In addition, the results of this week's high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States will also guide the process of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, as of Thursday, Lun lead inventory of 69850 tons, is still at a low level, the structure is not forced to position risk, combined with the above, the material Lun lead continued high shock probability, the operating range may be in the range of 2120-2200 US dollars / ton.

This week, the trend of lead in Shanghai followed the trend of Lun lead. On the first trading day after the festival, Shanghai lead opened high and quickly made up for the increase in the outer plate of the holiday. The high level once reached 17280 yuan / ton. After that, due to the weak performance of domestic spot, coupled with the widening of regenerative primary price differentials, short sellers began to layout and enter one after another. In the next few days, Shanghai lead dived down, made up for the gap in the short jump, and once dropped to 16835 yuan / ton. After that, the 60-day moving average was supported, and the decline of Shanghai lead stabilized by Friday. Finally, it was reported at 16910 yuan / ton. The domestic economic data are relatively concentrated next week, and there is no sign of stabilizing the decline for the time being. On the domestic lead fundamentals, the supply side shows a recovery increase, during which the maintenance of the primary lead smelter ends one after another, and the output and supply increases month-on-month. Under the high profits, the production enthusiasm of the recycling enterprises is higher, and the consumer end, entering the fourth quarter, the off-season of lead consumption gradually arrives, combined with the above. Although the current social inventory level is low, but the post-market stock upward inflection point is about to arrive, increase the downward pressure on lead prices, so the domestic lead price to give advice to sell short. Shanghai lead 1911 contract is expected to run at 16750-17100 yuan / ton.

The main trading range of spot lead this week is 16850-17150 yuan / ton. Lead in this cycle fell back, downstream post-festival procurement mood is low, the overall transaction is light; primary lead market, with the refinery production restrictions and maintenance have ended one after another, refineries after the base warehouse, so the shipping enthusiasm is better, as of Friday, the refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton to the flat water quotation; Trade market, holders actively ship after the festival, spot discount slightly expanded, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to 1911 contract discount 30 yuan / ton to flat water; recycled lead, environmental protection limits in various regions have ended one after another, recycled refined lead production gradually increased, as of Friday, recycled refined lead mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount to 200 yuan / ton to discount 350yuan / ton.

 

Zinc: Lun Zinc as a whole fluctuated around US $2310 / ton, during which it rose by US $2318 / ton, but failed to stand firm, but fell back to US $2290 / ton to find support, coinciding with the appearance of 40-day moving average support. Lun Zinc followed the domestic Shanghai period zinc back to around US $2310 / ton, while under the strong 10-day EMA suppression, Lun Zinc dived again to around US $2270 / ton. After the follow-up attempt failed to break through the suppression of the integer position of $2300 / ton, fell by $2268 / ton, short profit left the market, and boosted Lun Zinc's steady rise to $2320 / ton, the macro data released, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates, superimposed on the news of the closure of overseas Skorpion smelters, Lun Zinc quickly pulled up to $2370 / ton, and as of Friday, Lun Zinc closed at $2390 / ton. It rose 3.42% during the week.

After the opening of the market, the Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract tried to detect the 10-day moving average suppression, uplink 18745 yuan / ton, but failed to stand firm, pressure fell back to 18650 yuan / ton, and then around 18680 yuan / ton narrow shock finishing operation, the operating range does not exceed 50 yuan / ton, followed by the outer disk boost, Shanghai zinc pull up the disk surface to touch 18860 yuan / ton, then stimulated by the overseas smelter news, the outer disk went higher. Superimposed on the domestic three social inventory festivals do not increase but decline, multiple messages to boost Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity moved up to 19000 yuan / ton, but Wanjiu gate suppression is relatively strong, Shanghai zinc failed to successfully break through, fell back to 18950 yuan / ton near wide shock operation. As of Friday, the Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract was reported at 18960 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.53% per week, and the position increased by 10340 hands to 153000 hands.

This week, the price of domestic zinc ingots in Shanghai market for 1911 was significantly larger than that before the festival, reporting 120-130 yuan per ton. Shuangyan Chihong due to the impact of long single arrival of traders, the market quotation is basically flat with the ordinary zinc quotation, the rising water in November is 120-130 yuan / ton. SMC and KZ reported an increase of 120 yuan / ton in November. The spot rising water this week has obviously expanded compared with that before the festival. The main reason is that near the first batch of long single delivery, traders began to prepare for delivery. As a result, the rising water of ordinary zinc was relatively strong, basically maintaining a 120-130 yuan / ton increase in the 1911 contract. In terms of importing zinc, only a small part of SMC and KZ flowed into the Shanghai market this week, mainly because the current internal and external ratios do not support mass import, combined with the above. Domestic social inventory fell month-on-month this week, on the other hand, after the festival, downstream enterprises on demand replenishment, but in the next few days, with the rapid rise in zinc prices, downstream began to carefully buy, the overall transaction has become stable. Enter next week, with the 15th the first batch of traders long order delivery on schedule, the material market spot water showed a downward trend.

This week, the discount of Guangdong Zinc to Shanghai Zinc 1911 contract is near 40-30 yuan / ton, and the discount rate of Guangdong stock market is expanded from 140 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton on Friday before the festival. Zinc prices rose within the week, refineries actively shipped, Guangdong market supply is more abundant. Within the week, the holder quotation is basically concentrated in the 11 contract discount of 30-40 yuan / ton, the discount situation within the week is more stable, the first two trading days after the festival, the market trading atmosphere is more enthusiastic, near the first batch of long single delivery day, although the willingness of traders to receive goods is strong, but mostly concentrated on the 11 contract discount 40 yuan / ton delivery, shippers are more willing to discount 30 yuan / ton shipment to the 11 contract, the transaction is slightly deadlocked. The downstream purchase intention has improved, mainly due to the consumption of raw material inventory during the National Day holiday, the downstream replenishment production intention is stronger. The market rose on Wednesday, the willingness to buy downstream declined significantly, and trading between traders was fair. Overall, the first half of the week downstream replenishment willingness is strong, the second half of the week only to maintain rigid demand to buy, while the trading atmosphere between traders to maintain a good, this week, Guangdong market transactions are better, but still weak than the week before National Day.

This week, Tianjin Zinc shifted from 10 contracts to 11 contracts, with the Shanghai Zinc 1911 contract rising 80-300 yuan / ton, and the Tianjin stock market narrowed sharply from 180 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton from Friday's rising water of 180 yuan / ton to around 40 yuan / ton. The refinery shipped normally within the week, and the circulation of the market showed signs of loosening slightly. The plate rose significantly in the middle of the week, coupled with the fact that the lower reaches of the market had been kept at a bargain before the festival, and the goods tended to be cautious. The holders gradually reduced the rising water by 150-300 yuan / ton on the 11 contract from Monday to 80-200 yuan / ton on the 11 contract on Friday. This week, at the beginning of the week, the National Day holiday returned, downstream inquiry wait-and-see, buy high; midweek to Friday, affected by the disk upward, superimposed downstream reserve warehouse has been more sufficient, not in a hurry to buy goods, rigid demand to buy less contribution to trading, the transaction gradually faded. Overall, the overall trading situation in the downstream market this week was slightly worse than last week.

 

Tin: the overall situation of Lunxi this week is horizontal plate finishing, and the center of gravity is high and stable. Lunxi maintained an overall 5-day moving average of $16400 / ton during the week, while the lower part of the entity was generally supported by the 10-day moving average. In terms of inventory, Zhou Neilun tin inventory showed a small reduction, but the reduction is not obvious. As of 17: 30, the latest price for Lunxi was $16415 a tonne, down $60, or 0.36 per cent, for the week. The trading volume was 942 hands, the position was 18217 hands, an increase of 420 hands. The circumferential level of Lunxi showed a small negative situation, and the top of the solid part was pressurized in the 5-10 day moving average. In terms of indicators, the rising trend of daily level KDJ index slows down, and there is a trend of forming a dead fork; the fast and slow line of MACD index forms a golden fork below the zero axis, but the trend slows down. The weekly level MACD index appears the bottom deviation state, the fast and slow line is about to form a golden fork below the zero axis; the KDJ index still shows the upward trend but the rising trend slows down.

This week, the overall trend of tin in Shanghai was first raised and then suppressed, and the center of gravity moved up obviously. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai tin was affected by the long and short force, Shanghai nickel price and Indonesia Tianma Company announced a 50% reduction in tin exports, Shanghai tin overall showed a trend of first suppression and then rise. Affected by the news side of the market confidence was boosted, bulls increased holdings in Shanghai tin long Yang line rose. In the next few trading days, tin in Shanghai experienced an early rise, after a small downward shift in the center of gravity, but the overall stability is still above 136000 yuan / ton. Friday's closing price was 136150 yuan / ton, up 1350 yuan / ton, or 1.00%, for the week. During the week, the trading volume was 105000 hands, and the position volume was 38868 hands, an increase of 1278 hands. Weekly level Shanghai tin shows a small positive line, the physical part is located in the 10-day moving average, the upper shadow line to the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line level K line is located below 137000 yuan / ton in the Brin channel. The KDJ index showed an upward trend, and the fast and slow line of the MACD index remained stable above the zero axis. The weekly KDJ index increases slowly, and the MACD index forms a golden fork below the zero axis, but the rising trend also slows down.

This week, the center of gravity of tin in Shanghai is higher than that before National Day. Shanghai tin spot prices followed the market rose. At the beginning of the week, the tin center of gravity in Shanghai was still at a relatively low level, with some downstream enterprises purchasing a small amount after the festival, followed by a rise in tin prices in Shanghai, with spot prices rising 2000 yuan / ton. Downstream enterprises gradually intensified the mood of buying and turning weak, and some traders made up for bargains. In the following trading days, the Shanghai tin plate and Shanghai tin spot prices were generally stable, and only a small number of downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market was generally weak during the week. On Friday, the spot price of Shanghai tin was 136,000-138000 yuan / ton, and there was actually a low-priced small brand supply near 135500 yuan / ton in the market. In terms of water discount, due to the overall upward trend of the center of gravity of tin disk in Shanghai during the week, the range of spot rising water is slightly narrower than that at the beginning of the week. On Friday, the Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi rose 800-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi raised 200-400 yuan / ton, and small-brand discount 200 yuan / ton-flat water.

 

Nickel: Lenny fell for three days from the $17800 / tonne line on Monday, falling below multiple averages and stabilizing at $17300 / tonne. On Thursday, Lunni rose slightly to close at the central balcony and reclosed above the 5-day moving average. As of 14: 00 on Friday, Lunni had a small positive line, with column K standing above the 5-day moving average and stabilizing at the $17600 / tonne level. This week, the overall trend of Lunni showed a V-shaped trend of interval concussion, weekly position increased by 8000 hands to 275000 hands, trading volume decreased by 10.99 million hands to 24188 hands. The K line around Lunni is a small negative line, and the 10-day moving average below is supported near the US $17000 / ton pass, with a narrow concussion of US $17600 / ton as a whole. This week, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel position was replaced by the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract. On the first day after the holiday, the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed at the Zhongyin column, down 135000 yuan / ton from 139000 yuan / ton, and then returned to the low level for upward repair. it fluctuated in a narrow range near the 5 / 10 moving average of 137000 yuan / ton. Over the next three days, the Shanghai Nickel Shadow Line repeatedly probed the 135000 yuan / ton barrier, which was supported, fluctuating horizontally near the 5-day moving average of 137000 yuan / ton. As of Friday, Shanghai Nickel closed at 136900 yuan / ton, showing a small negative line with a longer shadow line. The weekly position of 1912 contract increased by more than 57700 hands to more than 308000 hands, and the trading volume increased by more than 153 million hands to 1.83 million hands. The weekly position of the Shanghai Nickel Index increased by more than 103000 hands to more than 867000 hands, and the weekly trading volume increased by 4.43 million hands to 5.87 million hands. The K line around the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract is a small negative line, standing between the 5 / 10 moving average, with interval fluctuations.

In the spot market, the Russian nickel contract for Shanghai Nickel 1911 rose about 50 yuan / ton this week, slightly better than the discount before the festival. Mainly due to the proximity of delivery, the holder would rather flat water delivery instead of discount delivery, strong willingness to rise. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel increased by 250yuan / ton in 1911 weeks, which was also slightly higher than that before the festival. The first day after the festival, nickel prices all the way down, to 135000 around the decline but rose, downstream in this process gradually active, some of the pre-season non-replenishment into the market to purchase. Spot trading was less active on Wednesday around a narrow range around 136800, while volume improved on Wednesday as traders delivered pre-agreed supplies downstream, but other traders generally gave feedback and continued to close softly on Friday. As far as Jinchuan nickel is concerned, historically, the rising water has basically dropped to a historical low, but due to the recent active shipment of Jinchuan company, the circulation of goods in the spot market has increased, while downstream demand has not improved, traders are also cautious in replenishing their warehouses, and transactions are relatively weak. It is expected that Russia Nickel will continue to level the Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract to 200 yuan / ton next week, and Jinchuan's Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract will rise 200-400 yuan / ton.

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