Weekly Review of Silicon and Manganese Market (10.8-10.11): can spot 6600 stick to

This week silicon manganese spot price decline is obvious, the national inventory rise price is lower, many small manufacturers lead the market to quote the low price to go goods, the overall profit is squeezed.

Before the "Eleventh" holiday, the mainstream price in the national silicon and manganese market revolved around 7000 yuan / ton. Under the background of generally looking down on the future, the decline in the first week of holiday return was still more than most people imagined. As of Friday afternoon, Ningxia region has the lowest market price of 6600 yuan / ton (cash ex-factory price), and Guizhou area has 6800 yuan / ton (cash ex-factory price). This price is the lowest price in the current market, respectively. Lower than the current mainstream offer of about 80-200 yuan / ton.

According to a rough calculation, the overall comprehensive cost is about 6430 yuan / ton in the north, 6680 yuan / ton in the south, and 170-380 yuan / ton in the whole country. (the profit of individual manufacturers with low charge cost can be increased by about 150 yuan / ton). Before that, the overall profit peak in the north was about 700 yuan / ton, and that in the south was about 600 yuan / ton.

The decline in this round of prices is mainly due to the substantial increase in silicon and manganese production and the reduction of profits and production of downstream steel mills. Under this background, the inventory and turnover of their respective manufacturers have become the key factors for whether or not to lower their quotations. According to SMM, the inventory of some small factories in the south (2000-3200 tons per month) is about 500-800 tons unequal (actual inventory or higher), and the single density is less than that in the second and third quarters. At the same time, for the new reproduction alloy factory in the third quarter, in order to ensure the cash flow, the profit is reduced slightly, and the low price shipping mentality is obvious, which leads to the price of some small factories leading the overall quotation and mentality of the market.

But SMM believes that the decline will continue, but 6600 yuan / ton (cash ex-factory price) will be a major barrier, the market will start a short-term game.