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[SMM midday review] non-ferrous metals rise and fall, semi-black minerals rise and fall
Oct 11,2019 11:47CST
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Source:SMM
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SMM, Oct. 11: non-ferrous metals rose and fell by half this morning. By midday, Shanghai copper rose nearly 1%, followed by Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.9%. On the black side, the heat fell by more than 1.4%, followed by a drop in threads. Iron ore rose nearly 0.8 per cent.

On the copper side, China Minmetals, Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining are among the companies considering bidding for Barrick Gold's Zambian copper mine, which could sell for about $1 billion. Luoyang Molybdenum and Chinalco were also invited to bid, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the information was not made public. Barrick Gold, the world's second-largest gold producer, is working with advisers to drum up interest from potential buyers of the Lumwana copper mine, people familiar with the matter said. Mark Bristow, chief executive of Barrick Gold, which is headquartered in Toronto, said in August that the goal remained to sell $1.5 billion in assets by the end of 2020. "Zambian copper mines are reported to have attracted interest from Chinese buyers for up to US $1 billion

On the aluminium side, analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their three-month price forecast to $1650 a tonne from $1800 a tonne, citing strong supply growth outside China and economic uncertainty that adversely affected capital spending and hurt demand. "in our basic scenario, we expect Chinese profit margins to shrink as a result of falling aluminum prices, resulting in supply growth of 3.3 per cent and a surplus of 400000 tonnes," analysts said. "if profit margins do not shrink, supply could well exceed expectations, leading to a surplus of more than 1 million tonnes in 2020." analysts cut their six-month price forecast to $1575 a tonne from $1900 a tonne. Cut its 12-month price forecast to $1600 a tonne from $2000. Goldman Sachs cut its aluminum price forecast because of weak demand

As for lead, according to SMM research, the operating rate of primary lead smelters rose month-on-month on Wednesday. With the increase in domestic processing fees and import processing fees, the production profits of domestic smelters have been repaired, so some refineries have begun to raise their production plans one after another. In addition, smelters in Henan, Yunnan and other regions have finished overhauling, so the operating rate of primary lead refineries in the three places has increased month-on-month. "[SMM Survey] Refinery overhaul ends superimposed production Plan to increase the monthly operating rate of the Primary lead Refinery

In the aspect of black system, the differentiation raw material of black system is stronger than that of formed material, and the iron ore continues to rebound. The trade dispute between China and the United States has weighed on global economic growth and suppressed the prospect of demand for industrial metals. Signs of progress in resolving trade disputes usually support basic metals prices. Asian stock markets and US stock index futures rose on Friday as investors renewed their appetite for risky assets, while sterling fell after rising as hopes of a Brexit deal revived in the UK. As far as iron and steel is concerned, according to SMM's understanding on October 10, according to the requirements of the Office of the leading Group for the Development of the Provincial Iron and Steel Industry to resolve excess capacity and realize the Development of extricating itself from difficulties, according to the requirements of the notice on establishing a long-term mechanism to crack down on the work of banning "strip steel," all parts of Huangshan City have carried out special rectification work on illegal and illegal production capacity in the iron and steel industry in an all-round way, and seriously "announcement of Huangshan City on Social Supervision of related Enterprises in the Iron and Steel Industry of the whole City

On the crude oil side, OPEC's extended production cut is expected to boost oil prices. OPEC Secretary General Barkin did not specify whether the group would extend the production cuts currently in place, but his comments appeared to inspire hope for longer cuts. Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, said Mr Barkin had sent a signal that the OPEC was serious about supporting oil prices and that market momentum had shifted coupled with a possible US trade deal with China. Mr Barkin said the OPEC+, made up of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, would meet in December and decide to put oil prices higher and more stable by 2020 than they are now. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said Baljindu's comments reminded the market that if oil prices did not fall off a cliff because of demand concerns, we could see OPEC+ extend production cuts for most of 2020.

Separately, Saudi Arabia told OPEC that crude oil production in September was down 660000 barrels a day from August as a result of the attack on its energy facilities, and that OPEC had lowered its forecast for supply growth in non-OPEC producing countries in 2020. In addition, Russia said President Putin plans to visit Saudi Arabia on Monday to meet with Saudi King Salman and Crown Prince Mohamed to discuss stabilizing global oil prices.

The new LME Metal Mini Futures quotation launched by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shows:

Today's stock

Aluminum: aluminum in the early afternoon of the month in the first trading stage wide shock, the second trading session fell sharply. In the morning, the spot transaction prices of the two places in Shanghai Wuxi market are mostly concentrated in the range of 13960-13980 yuan / ton, and the price is about 20-30 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that of yesterday. In the morning market, large customers receive goods actively, receive more than 10,000 tons at more recognized prices in the morning, the shippers are more active, the two sides are active in trading, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between 1397013990 yuan / ton. As the aluminum price falls, The holder quotation began to concentrate in 13940-13950 yuan / ton, the disk rose 30 yuan / near, but because the aluminum price fell faster, the holder constricted shipment, some middlemen also began to wait and see, the market transaction heat turned weak, at this time the transaction was less. Due to the approach of the weekend, downstream manufacturers have a small amount of stock today, but still not as expected. The overall transaction in East China is OK today.

Lead: Guangdong market South China lead 16900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton quotation; Jinsha 16900 yuan / ton, 1911 contract water 20 yuan / ton quotation; lead price continues weak shock, the overall market procurement is still relatively low, the market transaction is dull. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16825 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 25 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, downstream is still mainly to digest raw material inventory, the market transaction is light. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16800 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton (traders); Hechi south 16730 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 120 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper 16830 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 30 yuan / ton; Anhui copper crown 16900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory 16500-16550 yuan / ton, the average discount price of SMM1# lead 300-350 yuan / ton. Lead price shock operation, the holder active shipment, but the downstream basically wait and see, the market seldom has the transaction, the overall transaction is bleak.

Zinc: the mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 19060-19120 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 19060-19130 yuan / ton; that of zinc was 120-130 yuan / ton in November; that of Shuangyan was 130 yuan / ton in November; that of Shuangyan was 189901950 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 1911 high continued to weaken, the first trading session in the morning closed at 18935 yuan / ton. In the first trading period, the average price of SMM net was flat, and some of the holders reported a rise of 130 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. However, the transaction situation of spot discount was weak, and some of the holders took the initiative to reduce the price of zinc to 1911 yuan / tonne. In the second trading session, the zinc price continued to be weak, with the holder slightly raising the price of rising water, and some reported a rise of 130 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. Near the first batch of long order delivery, traders are active in the market, the overall transaction is still good, downstream on-demand procurement, but due to the rapid rise in zinc prices, the overall procurement is still more cautious.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18850-18950 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1911 contract reported in the discount water 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong stock market than Shanghai stock market discount maintained at 150 yuan / ton yesterday. Disk pull up, refinery active shipment, the market supply circulation is very abundant. The morning quotation of the holder focused on the discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, but the consignee was willing to receive the goods at the discount of 40 yuan / ton, and the market transaction showed a slight stalemate; entering the second trading period, some of the holders lowered the price to around 40 yuan / ton for the 11 contract, and the market transaction improved slightly. Overall, today's rally, downstream cautious wait and see, mostly rigid demand to buy, today's main trading by traders to contribute, but the overall transaction situation has been worse than the day before. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18850-18950 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 19000-20630 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 19000-19150 / ton, and the contract for 1911 rose by 80-200 yuan / tonne. The rising water in Tianjin market narrowed from 70 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival to 40 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the tight supply trend shows signs of loosening again. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of about 150-200 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and that of ordinary brand is about 80100 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk steadily upward, rising water downgrade efforts to increase, before the festival bargain reserve makes the downstream supply on hand is sufficient, the downstream purchase intention is weak, still mainly to inquire and wait and see. On the whole, the transaction today is once again worse than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in the vicinity of 19000-19150 yuan / ton, while Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18950-19100 yuan / ton.

Nickel: today, Russian nickel compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 flat water to 100 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally reported 200-300 yuan / ton, rising water continued to maintain stability yesterday, Jinchuan nickel rising water, holders reported up 300 yuan / ton. Today, nickel prices out of the deep V, early trading hours, nickel prices from 137300 all the way down to 135800 near, the spot market response was mediocre, spot transactions did not improve significantly. After traders agreed on the source of goods before delivering to steel mills yesterday, the market was flat today. Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded to near the opening price in 135800, and the market continued its morning mood, with fewer buyers entering the market. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 137700 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton higher than yesterday.

 

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