[2019.10.11 Nickel Internal Morning meeting minutes] Nickel stocks have fallen to nearly 100000 domestic spot trading is still weak

On the macro front, the dollar index fell yesterday, falling to 98.616, its lowest level since September 25, the lower-than-expected monthly rate of CPI in the US in September, a pullback in potential inflation and risks to the economic outlook as a result of the trade situation. supported expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates for the third time in October. According to the latest CME "Fed observation": the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50-1.75 per cent in October is 77.5 per cent.

Nickel spot: on October 10, Russian nickel reported flat water to 100 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai nickel 1911. Jinchuan nickel generally reported 200-300 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract, and the discount water was the same as yesterday. After the nickel price was revised back to around 135000 last night, the nickel price rebounded all the way to the opening of the day, and the spot market continued to wait and see, with no obvious concentrated transactions. Russia nickel basic report level above, discount water supply is less, near delivery, if spot delivery is not ideal, traders consider flat water delivery. The market Jinchuan supply is still abundant, downstream demand is still not ideal. Jinchuan company ex-factory price of 137200 yuan / ton, the same as yesterday, the mainstream transaction in 136900-137300 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, nickel prices continued to operate on the strong side, the market response was flat, traders continued to raise the discount, downstream Monday part of the replenishment, nearly two days flat, the mainstream transaction at 137000-137300 yuan / ton.

Stainless steel: on October 10, the quotation of private cold rolled stainless steel in Wuxi area was slightly increased by 50 yuan / ton, but the actual transaction price was stable compared with yesterday: the state-run 304 2B cut edge roll price is 16100-16300 yuan / ton, and the private 304 2B rough edge roll price is 15950-16050 yuan / ton. 304 / NO. 1 five feet at 15100-15200 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand is stable, after the festival a small amount of replenishment demand, the transaction is still OK. For 10:30 SHFE ss2002 contract selling price 15690 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 130-230 yuan / ton (spot edge cutting = rough edge + 170 yuan / ton)

On October 10, the price of waste stainless steel was generally stable, 304 side charge 10250-10450 yuan / ton, 316 return charge 15800-16000 yuan / ton, 201 waste 4350-4450 yuan / ton, 430 waste 3750yuan-3800 yuan / ton. Some traders said that at present, the stainless steel finished product market is stable, and there is no big price fluctuation in the waste market. However, some operators are optimistic about the waste market in the later stage, thinking that the price of waste stainless steel in the later stage will be on the strong side.

On the inventory side, Lunni stocks on 10 October were 102700 tons, 5928 tons less than on 9 October.

Nickel price judgment: there are differences in the mentality of the industry, in the short term, the nickel price is still above 135000 shock operation. From some of the previous operations, for a period of time in the future, the main force still has a relatively obvious tendency to insure prices. Lunni closed at the small positive line, the K column pierced multiple moving averages, closed near the 5-day moving average, today concerned about whether Lunni can stand on the 5-day moving average and hold on to the $17600 / ton level. Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed at the Yin Cross at night, the 5 / 10 moving average overlap 137000 yuan / ton first-line resistance is strong, today pay attention to Shanghai nickel at 137000 yuan / ton level concussion.