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[SMM Daily Review] Nonferrous Metals rise and fall each other Iron Ore rebounds in the afternoon and crude Oil closes 1.2% higher
Oct 10,2019 16:50CST
translation
Source:SMM
Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.9%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai tin rose more than 0.2%, Shanghai copper rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai lead closed down 0.5%, thread rose more than 0.1%, and hot coil fell more than 0.3%. Stainless steel rose more than 0.6 per cent, iron ore rose more than 1 per cent, coke fell 0.2 per cent, coking coal rose nearly 0.1 per cent and crude oil rose nearly 1.2 per cent.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, Oct. 10: the non-ferrous metals market rose and fell each other today. As of the end of the day, Shanghai zinc closed up nearly 0.9%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai tin rose more than 0.2%, Shanghai copper rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.4%, and Shanghai lead closed down 0.5%.

Among them, the copper side, Minmetals Resources Peruvian Las Bambas copper mine road transport waves again. Minmetals said in its latest announcement that the national road between Sayhua and Velille in Chumbivilicas province, in the Cusco region, has been blocked by local community residents, affecting normal transportation to the Las Bambas copper mine. Logistics was disrupted on September 22, but the company said production of copper concentrate had not been affected for the time being. Las Bambas has been affected by road jams for more than 100 days so far this year, so the mine remains concerned about the socio-political environment and its continued impact on logistics and transportation, and says it will continue to work with local communities and governments to restore road transport. "the resurgence of the Las Bambas copper mine has been blocked in many places, but the production of copper concentrate has not been affected for the time being.

Nickel, Shanghai nickel shock, short-term adjustment. LME nickel stocks continued to decline. India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement that the first anti-dumping sunset review of 304 series stainless steel hot rolled plates originating or imported from China, South Korea and Malaysia was filed. China's Castle Peak was one of the main forces behind the record decline in nickel stocks on the London Metal Exchange last week, according to people familiar with the matter. Concerns about the shortage of domestic nickel mine supply remain, while nickel mine port stocks show a downward trend, supporting nickel prices, but Philippine nickel mine imports have increased, and nickel-iron imports have increased to a certain extent, offsetting the impact of nickel mine shortage to a certain extent. At the same time, downward pressure on the global economy still exists, demand for stainless steel downstream is weak, and resistance above nickel prices is obvious. no, no.

Zinc, Ruida Futures said the recent Shanghai zinc shock higher, but blocked 60-day moving average. The macro focus is that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that despite some risks, the US economy is in good shape and that the Fed's task is to keep the economy that way. In addition, minutes released by the Fed show that most policymakers supported the need to cut interest rates at their September meeting, but views on the future monetary policy path remain deeply divided. Fundamentals, LME zinc inventory fell 7 days, the spot near the first batch of long single delivery, traders market trading active, rising water is relatively strong, and downstream mostly on-demand replenishment.

On the black side, threads rose more than 0.1 per cent and hot rolls fell by more than 0.3 per cent. Stainless steel rose more than 0.6 per cent, iron ore rose more than 1 per cent, coke fell 0.2 per cent and coking coal rose nearly 0.1 per cent. The black system fell almost across the board, except for iron ore. As soon as the production limit in Daqing came to an end, Tangshan City came out of the stage in October to strengthen the control of air pollution, requiring Class C sintering, pellet equipment, lime kilns and blast furnaces to stop production by more than 50% (including). If implemented in accordance with the document, it will affect the average daily hot metal production of 170300 tons, which is basically consistent with the expected production restriction policy issued on the eve of the National Day, but will be 60800 tons more than the average daily hot metal output in September. However, the impact of Daqing environmental protection has gradually dissipated, and the supply side is still dominated by smooth recovery. As a result, iron ore showed a restorative rebound, closing up 1.08 per cent to 657.5 yuan / tonne, trading volume increased by 580000 hands, positions rose to 1.725 million hands, a high of more than a month. With the recovery of post-festival terminal demand, the total inventory of the five major varieties of steel fell back to 16.5514 million tons month-on-month, basically flat in the middle and late September level, the plate surface is still dominated by weak shocks.

Stainless steel, Huaxin Futures said today that the spot transaction of stainless steel improved, futures prices rose slightly. The spot market generally maintained a stable shipment, and the transaction situation was improving. Economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region will slow to 5.8% in 2019 from 6.3% last year due to uncertainty caused by trade tensions, according to a report released by the World Bank today. The report highlights the weakness and increased uncertainty in global demand, which has led to a decline in export and investment growth, and notes that increased trade tensions pose a long-term threat to regional growth. Sino-US trade negotiations kicked off today. China's stainless steel exports to the United States are about 100000 tons, compared with China's 4 million tons of exports, the volume is relatively small, so the direct impact of trade friction on China's stainless steel is relatively small.

Crude oil rose nearly 1.2% in the previous period. Recently, foreign conflicts have had a great impact on crude oil, but the trend of domestic crude oil is still strong. The Ecuadorian government fled the capital Quito on Tuesday in response to protests following President Lenin Moreno's decision to remove subsidies, which led to a sharp rise in fuel prices. Protesters have occupied some oil facilities, and (Petroecuador), Ecuador's state oil company, has warned that if the unrest continues, losses could reach 165000 barrels a day-nearly 1/3 of production. Ecuador announced earlier this month that it would withdraw from OPEC on January 1, 2020, as the government was looking for ways to increase revenue. In addition, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey had launched a military operation against Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, adding that the purpose of the attack was to destroy a "corridor of terror" along the Turkish border. Analysts say the attacks could affect the economy of Iraq's oil-producing region of Kurdistan and push up energy prices. Us President Donald Trump said Turkish military action in Syria was "a bad idea" and did not have the support of the US government before oil prices fell. Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, an oil trading consultancy, said higher-than-expected growth in US crude oil inventories further underpinned concerns about weak oil demand, with refineries falling more seasonally than analysts had generally expected.

The new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:


Today's capital flow

Industrial products are most favored by money on one side. The holiday effect dissipated, with the Mandarin commodity index inflow of 2.685 billion, most of which poured into the industrial products market. The black chain index remains the most concerned, with non-ferrous and chemical sectors receiving 641 million and 302 million funds respectively, while the coal sector continues to be a maverick, with an outflow of 426 million funds.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on October 10th

Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened at 46530 yuan / ton in the morning, opening at the lowest level of 46530 yuan / ton in the day, nearly breaking the 46500 level, then rushing 46630 yuan / ton and then continuing to fall back, the center of gravity briefly stabilized at the 46600 yuan / ton level, then the bulls entered the market, and the market continued to pull up until the close, closing at 46700 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, up 0.06%. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its position by 11000 hands to 211000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 1224 hands to 89000 hands. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 14000 hands to 571000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 14000 hands to 246000 hands. Copper rose in Shanghai today, mainly because the Federal Reserve just released the minutes of its September meeting. Most officials believe that it is necessary to cut interest rates in order to resist the recession. The market is expected to cut interest rates. The US index has fallen to around 98.7. Shanghai Copper has been boosted slightly, while investors are waiting for a message from recent negotiations between China and the United States to judge the trend of the economy. At present, Shanghai copper has fallen for three days in a row, continue to close negative today, the top has lost all the moving average support. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand at 46700 yuan / ton level.

Lead: within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short opened at 16915 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead throughout the day around the daily average shock, and the amplitude is about 80 yuan / ton, the top pressure on the Wanqi platform, finally closed at 16950 yuan / ton, down 85 yuan / ton, down 0.5%, the position was reduced by 1720 to 50970 hands. Shanghai lead closing cross star, daily K line trapped between the EMA, the bottom 10 EMA support is still in existence, but the upper ten-day moving average support is still strong, the spot market supply exceeds demand expectations, or it will be difficult to drive Shanghai lead back to the top of Wanqi, Shanghai lead at night or continue to operate under Wanqi.

Nickel: Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened at 134720 yuan / ton today, after the opening, Shanghai nickel shock upward, to the 5th moving average near the pressure, the center of gravity around 137000 yuan / ton narrow shock. In the afternoon, the trend continued to fluctuate slightly in the first line of 137000 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 137210 yuan / ton, up 350 yuan / ton or 0.26% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume increased by 327000 hands to 639000 hands, position increased by 8000 hands to 305000 hands, Shanghai nickel index capital inflow reached 336 million yuan today. Today, the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed in the long lower shadow line Yang Cross, the upper 5-day moving average will face strong pressure, the overall 137000 yuan / ton first-line narrow shock operation, this evening to pay attention to the pressure of the 5 / 10 moving average above Shanghai Nickel.

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