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[SMM midday review] non-ferrous metals most green and black collective dumb crude oil rose 3%
Oct 9,2019 11:33CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, Oct. 9: this morning most non-ferrous metals appear green, as of noon closing, Shanghai tin rose nearly 1.6%, the most prominent performance. Shanghai nickel rose slightly, other non-ferrous metals all had different declines. The black system has been weak in recent mornings and iron ore has come under pressure.

On the copper side, recently, Antofagasta (Antofagasta) 's two companies re-transmitted labor agreements, raising the possibility of a strike at the mining end, but based on past experience, the impact is expected to be limited. Chilean copper production fell slightly by 0.4% in august from a year earlier, according to data from Chile's national copper commission. However, given that some copper companies in Peru and Chile have plans to increase production in the fourth quarter, the tightening of copper concentrates in the fourth quarter may ease somewhat. On the demand side, consumption in the September peak season is not expected to be lower than in previous years, and the spot rally has returned to the normal range. The stock of the exchange decreased one after another, and the inventory of the bonded area continued to decline. At present, there is still an unfulfilled expectation of demand for the growth gap between power investment and power grid investment in the power grid field. The fourth quarter is still the key point of the annual consumption recovery, and the demand has something to look forward to. But in the short term, LME copper stocks are still high, copper prices as a whole continue to be strong and weak inside and outside. In the context of weak demand, copper prices are vulnerable to macro changes and market sentiment, focusing on the recent round of Sino-US trade negotiations and Brexit progress on copper prices. "the US PPI data is significantly lower than expected and the safe haven market is a drag on copper prices.

Nickel, long-short game, nickel price short-term or high volatility. Supply side: after the ban on mines in Indonesia, due to the continuous increase in domestic nickel pig iron production, the demand for nickel ore is also high, the future domestic nickel pig iron supply will face a shortage. The production capacity of nickel pig iron is expected to be delayed. Neiman, Inner Mongolia, with an increase of 45000 nickel tons / year, and Indonesia, with new production capacity either concentrated in the fourth quarter or concentrated in the fourth quarter, may have downward pressure on nickel prices at the end of the year. Import window recently closed, domestic and foreign inventory as a whole low, alert to the risk of insufficient deliverable goods. On the demand side: stainless steel prices have risen, however, off-season demand is difficult to improve, inventory as a whole is high. On the premise of the increase in the prices of the two main raw materials, the cost of stainless steel raw materials increases obviously, and the price of stainless steel becomes stronger in terms of cost. If the downstream consumption does not improve obviously in the future, the stainless steel still has the risk of accumulation.

In the aspect of zinc, the impact of environmental protection and production restriction is limited, and the production situation of smelter is good. Under the condition that the processing fee is still high, the production enthusiasm of the smelter is maintained, and the inventory increases slowly with the increase of supply. The first trading day after the National Day holiday, the cumulative increment of social inventory in the three places is less than expected, superimposed downstream purchase spot is more willing, fundamentals or give Shanghai zinc certain action energy. On the whole, the space below is relatively limited.

In terms of lead, the current trend of lead in Shanghai is driven by lead. From the domestic fundamentals, Hebei recycled lead smelter may gradually resume production after National Day, in the case of high profits, the production enthusiasm is high, and the pressure on the supply side has slowed down. The high purchasing enthusiasm of downstream storage enterprises is low, and it is currently at the end of the lead traditional consumption season, and the demand side is weakening. Fundamentals do not have the driving force to support the continued rise in lead prices, and it is expected that there is limited room for lead to rise in Shanghai.

On the black side, threads, hot rolls and bifocal have all fallen by more than 1 per cent, and iron ore is also under pressure. The pace of production restriction has been adjusted after National Day, and the impact of production restriction on blast furnace start-up has been weakened, Futures Daily said recently. The downstream steel goes to the storehouse obviously, the steel mill stores and replenishes the storehouse demand. Recent port inventory data show that port inventories continue to be significantly reduced. On the one hand, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian mines has both declined, while the amount of dredging has remained high. The daily maintenance of Australian mines will continue to be reduced to Hong Kong volume in October. On the other hand, with the consumption of steel mill inventory after the festival, steel mills will continue to replenish their warehouses under the stimulation of better profits. As a result, the pattern of tight supply will continue to exist in the short term, and port inventories will remain low.

On the crude oil side, crude oil rose 3% in the previous period. On the crude oil front, the US government has blacklisted more Chinese companies, suppressing hopes of a trade deal between the two countries, but unrest in Iraq and Ecuador has provided some support for crude oil prices. Investors were cautious ahead of the U.S.-China trade talks to be held in Washington on Thursday. At the invitation of the US side, Liu he, member of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, will lead a delegation to visit Washington. In addition, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the US Department of Commerce's inclusion of 28 Chinese entities on the export control "entity list." The American Energy Information Association (EIA) cut its forecast for global oil demand growth by 100000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day in 2020. EIA also said in its monthly report that US oil production is expected to increase by 1.27 million b / d to 12.26 million b / d this year, up from the 1.25 million b / d forecast last month. Staunovo, oil analyst at UBS (UBS), said: "the market remains focused on trade tensions and concerns about oil demand, ignoring the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the decline in OPEC production in September."

Today's stock:

Nickel: today, Russian nickel is 1911 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai nickel. Jinchuan nickel is 200-300 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract. The discount water is slightly higher than yesterday. Most of the Russian nickel is concentrated in flat water. Jinchuan Shengshui 200 yuan / ton has a small deal. At the beginning of the session, nickel prices rose all the way to 137000 near the shock, spot trading is weak, the market is mostly on the sidelines. Subsequently, nickel prices fell slightly to 136800 yuan / ton, some traders entered the market to replenish the warehouse, concentrated in the vicinity of 13.68-136900 trading is slightly concentrated, the downstream market buyers are on the low side. Jinchuan nickel holders are generally more, although the downstream demand is weak, rising water fell near the cost line of most traders, the possibility of continued decline is small. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 137200 yuan / ton, which is 700 yuan / ton higher than that of yesterday, and the mainstream transaction is 136800-137200 yuan / ton. Zinc: the mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18810-20380 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands was 18760-18940 / ton, and the 1911 contract rose 130-280 yuan / ton. The rising water in Tianjin stock market narrowed from 150 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival to 110 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the supply is higher than yesterday, it is rumored that more than 10, 000 tons of Iranian zinc arrived today, SMM will continue to pay attention. The quotation for the supply of high-priced brands is concentrated around 230-280 yuan / ton for 11 liters of water, and that for ordinary brands is about 130230 yuan / ton for 11 liters of water. Disk continued horizontal concussion consolidation, supply tightening trend slightly turned to make rising water slightly lower than yesterday, the market is generally more bearish, traders are still inquiry wait-and-see, downstream rigid demand to buy part of the transaction, today's transaction atmosphere is relatively light. On the whole, today's transaction is worse than yesterday's. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chihong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18810-18990 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18760-18940 yuan / ton.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18650-18720 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1911 contract reported in the discount water 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 140 yuan / ton to 160 yuan / ton yesterday. The Shanghai stock market rose higher. The price gap between the two places widened again. The morning holder newspaper house concentrates in the average price near, partial average price-10 yuan / ton shipment is very smooth, enters the second trading period, the trader sees the situation to stand up the price, the quotation concentrates in the 11 contract discount near 30 yuan / ton, the overall transaction discount is narrower than the first period, generally speaking, today's Guangdong market transaction atmosphere is more enthusiastic, by the trader contributes the main transaction, the transaction situation is slightly better than the day before. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18650-18720 yuan / ton near.

Lead: Shanghai market Jinsha, southern, Ambrose lead 16975-16995 yuan / ton, the 1910 contract flat water to rising water 20 yuan / ton quotation; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Jinli, bronze crown, gold expensive 16975 yuan / ton, for 1910 contract flat water quotation, of which white goods can be discounted 20-10 yuan / ton. The future lead twist trend falls, the holder low price cherishes the sale, the quotation discount narrows, but the original lead refinery shipment maintains the discount, the recycled refined lead discount expands to 300-200 yuan / ton, the downstream is carefully mined on demand, and tends to the refinery supply, the trade market transaction is limited.

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