Summary of 10.09 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting
Disk: overnight aluminum opened at $1744 / ton, in the Asian to European market time in the vicinity of the daily moving average, North America rose and fell back, more flat than the opening, mainly short positions. The overnight Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract day interval shock, the night plate follows the outer plate performance first rises then suppresses, touches the high 14020 yuan / ton after the downward, finally closes at 13960 yuan / ton.
Macro: (1) it is not clear whether the Fed will cut interest rates by the end of the month. Powell said on Tuesday that the Fed would be committed to supporting the US economic recovery, but that the bank would rely on the performance of economic data to make monetary policy decisions rather than setting a pre-set path for interest rate cuts. (2) the US Department of Commerce has added 28 Chinese organizations and enterprises to the list of entities, and the enterprises targeted have obvious attributes of scientific and technological leaders. China has indicated that it will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard China's own interests. (3) in September, the sales of leading housing enterprises warmed back strongly, and all of them increased significantly on the same month-on-month basis.
Fundamentals: (1) on the bauxite side, (GAC), the Guinea branch of the United Arab Emirates Aluminium, said at the end of September that since its bauxite project in the Bokai region was put into operation in early August, exports have increased steadily, exporting 51000 tons of bauxite per week; The squeezing of Indonesian nickel ore before the ban has led to a shortage of maritime transport capacity from Indonesia to China, and has also contributed to the continued rise in bauxite sea freight. The sea freight of bauxite from Indonesia to China has risen from US $9 to US $10 at the beginning of the year to US $14 to US $15 at present. Metro Mining has strong bauxite production in the third quarter and is expected to achieve the target of 330 to 3.5 million wet tons by the end of the year. (2) in the aspect of alumina, the Ganyu District people's Government signed the contract signing ceremony of the letter of intent for the alumina project of Chinalco Lianyungang (Ganyu) Alumina Project with Lianyungang Port holding Group and Chinalco Co., Ltd on September 30. The project is located in Santui, Ganyu Port District, to build a 4 million t / a alumina production base and a supporting red mud yard project. (3) in the aspect of electrolytic aluminum, Wenshan Prefecture Ecological Environment Bureau intervened in the environmental assessment service of Weiqiao hydropower aluminum project in advance, and the project designed aluminum production capacity of 2 million tons / year. (4) in terms of inventory, in the first week after the return of the National Day holiday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 75000 tons, mainly concentrated in Guangdong, and the holiday cycle of enterprises in the lower reaches of Guangdong was slightly longer than that of the same period last year. Some of the steam-transported aluminum ingots directly to the factory were transported to the warehouse; the amount of storage was still available during the holiday, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum was transferred to the warehouse in a short period of time.
Spot: Shanghai Wuxi market spot quotation is mostly concentrated in 14060-14080 yuan / ton, to the surface rising water 40-50 yuan / ton, the spot price is about 60 yuan / ton before the festival, Hangzhou area spot price is 14080-14100 yuan / ton. East China as a whole closed well yesterday, but showed a slight stalemate. In the afternoon, aluminum floated slightly, and the offer of the holder was basically flat compared with that before noon, near 14050-14060 yuan / ton, about 20 yuan / ton to the surface of the disk, only part of the transaction between traders, the downstream is relatively calm.
Conclusion: after the festival, we pay attention to the downstream replenishment demand, and it is expected that the short-term main operation range of Shanghai Aluminum will be concentrated in the range of 13800 ~ 14200 yuan / ton. The spread between contracts focuses on 11-01 back structural opportunities. The inner and outer structures continue to be held.
(SMM Li Hao)