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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 8
Oct 8,2019 17:59CST
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Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 8
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: Yapanlun copper opened at $5703.5 a tonne today. Due to optimism about a new round of economic and trade talks between China and the United States, copper prices rose sharply to $5744 a tonne at about 9: 00. Subsequently, it was announced that China's Caixin service PMI in September was not as expected, but it showed that the Chinese economy had a more obvious marginal improvement, and copper prices continued to fluctuate, rising by $5758 / ton. To the European plate before the copper price correction, the whole is still at a high level. After entering the European session, affected by the poor German economic data and the increased risk of Brexit, copper prices fell back from high to a low of US $5701 / tonne, and then rebounded, but still far from the daily average. the center of gravity of copper prices moved down again, hovering only near the 10-day moving average, as of 17: 00, London Copper reported US $5712 / ton, up US $5 / ton, US dollar index at 98.858, US crude oil at US $53.01 per barrel. Pay attention to the September PPI data in the United States in the evening. At present, Lun copper slightly closed the sun, the MACD index green column shortened, but the top is still directly under pressure in the 10-day moving average. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold the round mark of $5700 / ton.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened lower at 46920 yuan / ton in the morning, then continued to dive to the lowest level of 46900 yuan / ton in the day, and then the center of gravity recovered slightly and maintained its stability around 46930 yuan / ton until the end of the afternoon. In afternoon trading, the center of gravity continued to move down to 46900 yuan / ton, and the tail continued to decline and closed at 46820 yuan / ton, down 310 yuan / ton, or 0.66%. Shanghai bronze main contract 1912 today completed the main position exchange month, short positions increased by 13000 hands to 191900 hands; trading volume decreased by nearly 23000 hands to 65000 hands; Shanghai copper 1911 contract today only increased position 1902 hands. At present, the disk 1911 contract and the 1912 price difference maintain the Back structure, the price difference is about 50 yuan / ton. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 9734 hands to 545000, while trading volume decreased by 59000 to 212000. Today, the inner market opened short and fell, and then continued to hover at a low level, mainly due to the continued deterioration of the international macro-economy during the holiday, geopolitical frequent, the dollar has been stable near 99, unfavorable to the copper market higher. The market is waiting for 13 rounds of negotiations between China and the United States to guide copper prices. Today, Shanghai copper barefoot Yang line, physical pressure 40-day moving average, greater resistance, technical performance is bearish. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand firm 46800 yuan / ton.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 90 ~ 150 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 46980 yuan / ton ~ 47040 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47000 yuan / ton ~ 47070 yuan / ton. During the festival, Lun copper fell continuously, and the Shanghai copper stock market opened after the festival. The copper in Shanghai hovered below 47000 yuan / ton, and the spot quotation showed the phenomenon of overreporting and underreporting. At the beginning of the morning market, the holder tried to quote in the range of 150 ~ 190 yuan / ton, but the false high degree was high and could not be recognized by the market, so the spot rising water showed a cliff-style fall, briefly entangled in the rising water of 120 ~ 150 yuan / ton. Still lack of response, the market began to decline further, good copper from 150 yuan / ton near straight down to 110 yuan / ton to rise water 110 yuan / ton to slow down signs, Pingshui copper fell below 100 yuan / ton still did not stop falling signs, under the guidance of a large number of falling prices of individual holders, Pingshui copper was as low as 90 yuan / ton, and wet copper rose from 70 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton to 40-50 yuan / ton. On the first day after the festival, the decline of copper in Shanghai did not usher in a concentrated replenishment downstream, and the downstream was resistant to the rising water, which was temporarily on the sidelines. Although the middleman is willing to replenish the goods, it is difficult to raise the water to a high level. After the festival plate price difference fluctuates frequently, almost no price difference, during the holiday period all kinds of goods will also make inventory increase significantly, this week gradually tend to delivery date, rising water more than 120 yuan level if the lack of disk structure support may be difficult to maintain, short-term rising water will continue to be reduced under the pressure of delivery. Spot quotation in the afternoon continued to show downward compared with the morning, and the disk price has also weakened, so attracted a small number of downstream prices to buy goods, but on the whole, the first day after the festival, the market transaction sentiment is still more cautious, concentrated buying sentiment is not strong. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 80-90 yuan / ton, good copper reported 100-120 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 46920 yuan / ton-47000 yuan / ton.

 

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1744 per ton on the first day after the festival. In Asia, Kailun aluminum reached an intraday high of $1748.5 / tonne, after which it quickly fell back to around $1740 / tonne, and fluctuated around its narrow range, hitting intraday lows of $1740 / tonne several times. In the afternoon, Lun Aluminium tried to repair its intraday decline, trading at $1746 a tonne as of 15: 00, yet to reach an intraday high. In Europe, Lun Aluminium weakened, falling back to around $1740 / tonne again, closing at $1741.5 / tonne at 16: 29. Lun Aluminium is expected to remain volatile in the evening, trying to break through the $1750 / tonne integer level, after support of $1750 / tonne will become the new pressure level.

On the first day after the festival, the 1911 contract of Shanghai Aluminum main Force was opened at 13995 yuan / ton. After the opening of the short plus Cang Shanghai aluminum low quickly touched 13950 yuan / ton, after the short profit left, Shanghai aluminum rebounded high over 14000 yuan / ton touch 14020 yuan / ton 5-day moving average. Then long and empty are mainly to leave the field, Shanghai aluminum narrow shock in the vicinity of 13980 yuan / ton, the end of the market long escape, Shanghai aluminum closed at 13960 yuan / ton. Positions decreased by 2140 to 187524 less than 1912 contract positions, trading volume decreased by 59234 to 59254 still more than 1912 contract volume. The Shanghai aluminum index increased its position by 168 to 677378. Eleven domestic fundamentals are facing a transformation, from the third quarter "gold, nine, silver and ten" demand recovery expectations to bring about a return to production under high profits, supply pressure to increase expected conversion, the original four integers gradually changed from the support level to the pressure level. Shanghai aluminum is expected to remain weak in the evening shock, there is a risk of continued decline.

In the spot market, aluminum rose and fell sharply in the first trading stage in the early afternoon of the month, while the second trading stage remained low and volatile. The spot quotation in Shanghai Wuxi market is mostly between 14060-14080 yuan / ton, 40-50 yuan / ton, the spot price is about 60 yuan / ton before the festival, and the spot price in Hangzhou is 1408014100 yuan / ton. Today is the first spot transaction day after National Day, the morning holdings are not much, the market supply is tight, the middleman is willing to accept the goods, the holder is more high price, the buyer and seller can conclude the transaction, after 11: 00, the supply becomes loose, but at this time the transaction heat becomes weak, the holder quotation is slightly reduced. Downstream manufacturers can replenish goods after the festival, but there is still a certain gap compared with the expected large number of purchases. East China as a whole closed well today, but showed a slight stalemate. In the afternoon, aluminum floated slightly, and the offer of the holder was basically flat compared with that before noon, near 14050-14060 yuan / ton, about 20 yuan / ton to the surface of the disk, only part of the transaction between traders, the downstream is relatively calm.

 

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at 2182 US dollars / ton. In the Asian period, at the beginning of the session, the short lead increased its position to 2167 US dollars / ton. However, Shanghai lead continued the high shock market, and Tazhenlun lead returned to 2189.5 US dollars / tonne. However, the upward movement of Lun lead was limited and fell back to the shock near the daily average. entering the European period, Lun lead continued to concussion market, as of 16: 56, Lun lead temporarily closed at 2179.5 US dollars / ton. It fell $2.50 a tonne, or 0.11 per cent. Lun lead temporarily closed a small negative line, the pace of uplink is suspended, but the averages of each channel are long, coupled with the LME lead 0-3 contract to maintain the back structure, indicating that this wave of rising market has not yet ended, pay attention to whether Lun lead can continue to brush a new high at night, standing on $2200 / ton.

Within days, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short opened at 17100 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead throughout the day basically above the daily average line narrow shock, and above the pressure on the 17250 yuan / ton line, during the high recorded 17280 yuan / ton, near the close, some of the bulls chose to leave the market, Shanghai lead fell back slightly, and finally closed at 17205 yuan / ton, up 260 yuan / ton, up 1.53%, the position increased by 3408 hands to 55998 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the Zhongyang line, driven by the strong trend of lead in the holiday, Shanghai lead stood firm at the Wanqi pass at one stroke, and the short-and medium-term averages were all turning up.However, today's spot market trading was light, and the enthusiasm for high purchasing of downstream storage enterprises was low, and at present, at the end of the peak season for traditional lead consumption, the demand side showed a weakening trend. At the same time, the profit of recycled lead smelting was high, the production enthusiasm was high, and the electrolytic lead smelter did not have a new maintenance plan. Supply side shows a growth trend, so it is expected that Shanghai lead rise space is limited, need to be careful to chase high.

Shanghai market southern lead 17150-17160 yuan / ton, 1910 contract discount 10 yuan / ton to ping shui quotation; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Jingui 17130-17160 yuan / ton, 1910 contract discount 30 yuan / ton to ping shui quotation. Driven by the rising trend of Lun lead during the festival, on the first day after the festival, Shanghai lead strongly pulled up, and more active quotations and shipments were made by many refineries after the festival, which gradually turned to discount shipment (100-0 yuan / ton on the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead). At the same time, the average price of recycled refined lead on SMM1# electrolytic lead is also 200-100 yuan / ton, while the downstream is afraid of waiting and seeing, the demand for replenishing storage after the festival is limited, and the shipment of traders is passive. Transactions in the bulk market are light.

Guangdong market South China lead 17175 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton quotation; Jinsha 17160 yuan / ton, the 1910 contract flat quotation; the first trading day after the festival, as the lead price rose, the mood of shipment was high, but most of the downstream was wait and see, and the market was bleak. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters are mainly long single transactions; Jinli 17125 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat water quotation. Lead price shock upward, holding goods mainly for shipment. But downstream to digest inventory-based, the market transaction is light. Other areas such as: Shuikoushan 1702517075 yuan / ton, the average discount price of SMM1# lead 50-100 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Hechi south 16995 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 130 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory 16775-16825 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton, back after the festival, the holder actively shipped, but the downstream is basically wait and see, the market is rarely traded, the overall transaction is bleak.

 

Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $2290 / ton, and zinc in Pan Chulun climbed to US $2305 / ton per day. During this period, two uplink attempts to detect the suppression of the 20-day EMA failed to materialize. Under pressure, it fell steadily, probed down US $2281.5 / ton, and gave back all the gains within the day. It coincided with another 1,000 tons of decline in LME zinc stocks, which gave Lun Zinc a certain stop-to-fall kinetic energy and returned to around 2290 US dollars / ton. At 16: 35, Lun Zinc closed at $2285 a tonne, down $5, or 0.25 per cent. Geneva zinc received two consecutive negative, attached on the shadow line to stab Brin Road middle track, back structure slightly narrowed, zinc inventory still recorded a decline, or give Lun zinc a certain stop falling kinetic energy, pay attention to Brin Road middle rail suppression at night.

During the day, the Shanghai zinc main force 1911 contract jumped down to 18665 yuan / ton, and at the beginning of the day Shanghai zinc was slightly sorted down 18630 yuan / ton, and then the short withdrawal boosted Shanghai zinc upward to 18710 yuan / ton near the first line. In the afternoon, the short bears left again, and the Shanghai zinc uplink rose 18795 yuan / ton. however, under the suppression of the 10-day EMA above, the Shanghai zinc pressure fell back to 18730 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai zinc at the end of the day steadily broke through the daily moving average support again. It closed down at 18700 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton, or 0.16%. The trading volume was reduced by 85388 hands to 111000 hands, and the position was reduced by 13068 hands to 159000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc received a small yang line, with a 40-day moving average on the shadow line, and the KDJ index turned upward, showing that Shanghai zinc may have action energy. On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the cumulative increment of social inventory in the three places was less than expected, and the willingness to buy spot in the lower reaches was stronger. Fundamentals or given Shanghai zinc must go on the action energy, pay attention to the 10-day moving average suppression at night.

Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction in 18760-18855 yuan / ton, Shuangyan, Chi Hong in 18790-18895 yuan / ton; Shuang Yan and Chi Hong reported 150 yuan / ton in October; Shuangyan and Chihong reported 150 yuan / ton in October; Shuangyan and Qihong reported 150 yuan / ton in October; Shuangyan and Qihong reported 150 yuan / ton in October; 18690-18785 yuan / ton. Today, the first trading day, the market transaction gradually climbed, the morning market part of the domestic ordinary to 1910 liters of water 110 yuan / ton, the market quotation range gradually to the rising water 120 yuan / ton, part of the net price posted 5 yuan / ton, the overall spot rising water quotation to 1910 liters of water 110120 yuan / more. The first batch of long single delivery date is only a few working days, traders replenishment demand is OK, on the other hand, due to the disk price is still relatively low in the early stage, the market downstream buying mood is still good. Overall, the first post-holiday trading day, the market trading mood is good, trading gradually climbed.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18650-18720 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1911 contract reported in the discount water 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 130 yuan / ton to 140 yuan / ton last Monday. On the first trading day after the festival, the morning quotation of the holder concentrated in the average price of-10 yuan / ton, part of the contract quotation holder reported a discount of about 40 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, the market transaction atmosphere is more enthusiastic, mostly concentrated in the average price of-10 yuan / ton; Entering the second trading session, the holder was slightly interested in raising the price, raising the discount to around 30 yuan / ton for the 11 contract, but the consignee was willing to receive the 11 contract at a discount of 40 yuan / ton, and the overall transaction was slightly lightened. Overall, the demand for long orders between traders today is better, concentrated in the first trading session, downstream also has a strong willingness to pick up goods, the overall transaction situation is better than the last trading day before the festival. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18650-18720 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18850-20380 yuan / ton, that of ordinary brands was 18800-18980 yuan / ton, and that of the 1910 contract was 150-300 yuan / tonne. The rising water in Tianjin market narrowed from 180 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival to 150 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the supply of ordinary brands has increased slightly, and the supply of high-priced brands has shown a trend of tightening due to the slight sale of refineries. In the morning, the quotation for the supply of high-priced brands is concentrated in the vicinity of 250-300 yuan / ton for 10 contracts, and for ordinary brands, the quotation for ordinary brands is relatively scattered, about 150-250 yuan / ton for 10 contracts. Disk downward, rising water also slightly decreased, the first trading day after the festival, traders to inquiry wait-and-see, downstream only to maintain rigid demand to buy, today buy more generally. On the whole, today's transaction was basically flat compared with the last trading day before the festival. Zi Zijin, Red Ye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang and other transactions in 18850-19030 yuan / ton, Zi Zijin, Chi Hong, Hongye and other transactions in 18800-18980 yuan / ton.

 

Tin: after the opening of US $16390 / ton today, the Asian session was affected by the domestic Shanghai tin market as a whole, showing a trend of suppression at first and then rise after the opening of US $16390 / ton today. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi almost no trading, as of 17: 00, Lunxi's latest price of $16355 / ton, showing a small negative line, the physical part is located near the 10-day moving average. The lower support of Lunxi is expected to be near $16200-16300 per tonne. Tonight you can take a look at the September PPI annual rate (%) and the EIA monthly report.

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract opened 135040 yuan / ton early trading today, due to long departure and short positions during the morning to noon due to the impact of the center of gravity down, the lowest down to 133720 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, as the short closed out of Shanghai, tin hit the bottom and quickly rose to the high end of the day, 135640 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 135260 yuan / ton, up 460 yuan / ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 16286 hands, the position was 37752 hands, an increase of 162 hands. Today, Shanghai tin overall showed a trend of first suppression and then rise, closed with a small positive line, the lower shadow line is longer, the physical part is located near the 40-60 day moving average, the upper shadow line is under pressure in the 5-day moving average, and it is expected that the support below Shanghai tin is located at 134000 yuan / ton. The upper resistance is near the 10-day moving average of 136500 yuan / ton.

Spot market, this morning Shanghai tin mainstream transaction price for 134000-135000 yuan / ton, the market is actually low price small brand supply, a small number of downstream enterprises after the festival bargain purchase. In the afternoon, although Shanghai tin rose, but in the afternoon the actual market trading is relatively light, business quotation has not changed. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market today is generally weak. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi water 1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word water 300-600 yuan / ton, small brand water 200-400 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $17690 a tonne today. At the beginning of the day, Lunni fell all the way to $17170 / tonne to get a support rebound and repair, to a pressure shock near the daily moving average. In the afternoon, Lunni quickly rebounded after diving into the first line of $17170 / ton again, breaking through the daily average pressure to a narrow range of $17150 / ton, which was reported at $17505 / ton at 17: 00. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the settlement price fell by $205 / ton, down 1.16%, trading volume increased by 1929 hands to 4519 hands, position increased by 4000 hands to 271000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the lower shadow line small negative line, the shadow line pierced the 10 / 20 moving average crossing, the K column fell below the 5-day moving average support but stood above the intersection as a whole, paying attention to whether Lunni can hold the first line of 17500 US dollars / ton in the evening. Pay attention to the monthly and annual rate of PPI in the United States in September.

Shanghai Nickel 1912 opened at 139000 yuan / ton today, after opening, short positions increased, Shanghai nickel all the way down, fell below the 5-day moving average, probed down 134310 yuan / ton, rebounded and repaired, to 137000 yuan / ton at the intersection of the 5 / 10 moving average, the center of gravity fluctuated slightly around the daily moving average, and finally closed at 137000 yuan / ton. compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the settlement price dropped slightly by 50 yuan / ton, down 0.04%, and the trading volume increased by 35000 hands and 326000 hands. Position increased by 42000 hands to 292000 hands, after the festival, the main position has been changed to Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract. Today, the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract capital inflow of 671 million yuan, closed in the shadow line in the negative column, K column standing near the 5 / 10 moving average crossing, this evening concerned about whether Shanghai nickel can stand at the 137000 yuan / ton level.

Today, Russia nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 discount to flat water, Jinchuan nickel Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally reported water 100-200 yuan / ton, higher discount than before the festival to maintain stability. On the first trading day after the festival, nickel prices fell all the way from around 138500 to around 135000, but because of the low activity of the spot market after the festival, the decline in nickel prices had limited stimulus to spot transactions, and the overall trading in the market was still relatively deserted. Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded to 137000 in the process, spot transactions slightly improved, but the volume is still not optimistic, only a small amount of cautious procurement. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 136500 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival, and the mainstream transaction is 135800-136500 yuan / ton. In the afternoon nickel prices fluctuated around 136400-137000, the transaction continued the morning mood, the response is still mediocre, the mainstream transaction in 136400-137000 yuan / ton.

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