[summary of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting] National Day Aluminium Ingot to accumulate SMM September Aluminium processing PMI rebounded above the rise and fall Line

Summary of 10.08 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Disk: Lun aluminum, due to the high fall of the United States finger, Lun aluminum within the week first suppressed and then raised, the center of gravity obviously moved down. At the beginning of the week, it fell to an integer level of $1700 per tonne, the lowest level since January 2017. After that, due to the continuous decline of the US index, Lun Aluminum slightly repaired the week's decline, closing at $1751 / ton, near the 5-day moving average.

Macro: (1) domestic, China's official manufacturing PMI, in September: 49.5, published: 49.8; September Caixin manufacturing PMI final value: 50.4, forecast: 50.2, announced: 51.4, manufacturing performance slowly picked up. (2) overseas, the final value of manufacturing PMI in Germany in September was the lowest since June 2009, with a published value of 41.7; in the euro area, the final value of manufacturing PMI in September was 45.6, 45.6 and 45.7, respectively. Us ISM manufacturing PMI, in September: 49.1, reported: 47.8, recorded the lowest level in June 2009. The number of non-farm payrolls (10,000) performed better than expected after the September quarterly survey, with a revised figure of 16.8.

Fundamentals: at the cost end, the spot exchange price of Weiqiao anode in October is 2900 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton from the previous month. 500000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Mengtai Aluminum Co., Ltd. will be put into production around October 20. On the demand side, SMM research calculates that the PMI ring ratio of PMI55.6%, sheet, strip foil, profile and recycled alloy industry in China's aluminum processing industry rebounded in September. Although the cable and primary alloy ring ratio has decreased, it is still above the rise and fall line. It is expected that the PMI data will continue to improve moderately in October. In terms of inventory, SMM counted 969000 tons of domestic aluminum ingots on October 8, an increase of 75000 tons over the previous week. During the holiday, aluminum ingots were concentrated in goods, and stocks increased or slowed after the festival, or continued to change to the trend of de-inventory.

Spot: before the festival, the spot quotations in Shanghai Wuxi market are mostly concentrated in 14000-14010 yuan / ton, about 20 yuan / ton. On the morning of the first day after the festival, spot transactions raised 20-30 yuan / ton in the same month, and the average transaction price in East China concentrated around 14050 yuan / ton. South China was affected by the increase in goods. The average transaction price was flat or 10 yuan / ton in East China. The overall transaction market is still waiting for recovery.

Summary: pay attention to the downstream replenishment demand after the festival, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will first suppress and then rise within the week, the center of gravity will continue to move down, the main operating range is concentrated in the 13800 / 14100 yuan / ton. The spread between contracts focuses on 11-01 back structural opportunities. The inner and outer structures continue to be held.

(SMM Li Hao)