[2019.8.19 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] High nickel price shock concerns inverted hanging structure stainless steel continues to accumulate

Macroscopically, the total number of new housing starts in the United States fell 4 percent in July, to a seasonally adjusted 1.191 million, below the expected 1.257 million, after a previous value of 1.253 million, falling for the third month in a row; the US consumer confidence index fell to 92.1 from 98.4 in July, a seven-month low, amid growing fears of recession.

The announcement of the people's Bank of China on the reform of the (LPR) formation mechanism of the quoted interest rate in the evening loan market on August 17 announced that the marketization of the interest rate has taken a key step. Analysts believe that in terms of policy effect, the reform of the mechanism is expected to be equivalent to an asymmetric interest rate cut, and in the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the MLF interest rate leads down or not. It helps to enhance the bargaining power of credit for high-quality large enterprises, but the benefits of small and medium-sized enterprises may be limited and structural policies are still needed.

On August 18, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on supporting Shenzhen in Building a leading demonstration Zone for Socialism with Chinese characteristics were announced. Analysts believe that with the further deepening of the integration of the Great Bay area, the status of Shenzhen should become more and more important.

Nickel spot: spot transactions and discount, last week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1909 contract since the weekly discount 280 yuan / ton, compared with last week slightly narrowed 30 yuan / ton. On the whole, Russian nickel discount to maintain stability, because this week the disk continues to be strong shock, downstream fear of high cautious procurement, spot transactions are light. However, the holder's willingness to push up the discount is stronger, and the low-priced goods are difficult to receive, mainly due to the large import loss, and the inflow of goods is less in the later period. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 1909 contract week average rising water 1000 yuan / ton, compared with last week narrowed 1000 yuan / ton, Jinchuan rising water down, mainly due to Shanghai nickel prices higher, Jinchuan company active shipment, as well as some old goods also enter the market, and Jinchuan downstream transaction is also weak. The market continues to worry about whether the future high correction, is still in the wait-and-see stage.

Stainless steel: August 16 Wuxi 304 hot rolling quotation is generally the same as yesterday, 14400 to 14500 yuan / ton, but some traders raised 50 to 100 yuan / ton water test; 304 cold rolling market quotation is generally stable, 15150 to 15250 yuan / ton; some traders said that although the nickel price rose, but the stainless steel market demand is not good, downstream rigid demand procurement, stainless steel price rise is weak, the overall transaction is weak.

In terms of inventories, nickel stocks stood at 145100 tons on 16 August, an increase of 342 tons over 15 August.

As of mid-August, stocks in Foshan, Wuxi, had increased to 596000 tons from the end of July, of which the 596000 series ring increased by 15 per cent to 162000 tons, the 300 series ring increased by 11 per cent to 355000 tons and the 400 series ring increased by 11 per cent to 78600 tons.

Nickel price judgment: the fundamentals have not changed obviously, the market atmosphere is optimistic, the supporting logic lies in the fact that the overall foreign and domestic inventory is low, and although the new capacity of nickel pig iron is released, stainless steel continues to maintain high production schedule. However, the recent external and internal structure are upside down, short alert to the risk of soft positions, nickel prices are expected to remain high and strong volatility this week. Focus on the pressure on nickel at $16400 per tonne on Boll line today. Shanghai nickel closed overnight in the small Yang line, as a whole in the daily moving average above the shock operation, today pay attention to the former high 128000 yuan / ton first-line resistance situation.