Home / Metal News / Copper / July 30 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
July 30 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
Jul 30,2019 18:03CST
translation
Source:SMM
July 30 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: Yapan Lun Copper opened at US $6020 / ton today. After the opening, the market basically fluctuated around a narrow range of daily averages. As the market waited for the guidance of the current macro event, it rose US $6032 / ton in the morning, but then entered the European market. Due to certain expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, a series of economic data from European countries were negative for euros. The US dollar went straight to 98.1 highs. Copper prices are under pressure. Short active into the market copper prices all the way down, fell below the 6000 level position, and has not seen the trend of stopping the decline. At 17-30, bronze was at $5982 a tonne, down $33 a tonne, the dollar index at 98.105 and crude at $57.28 a barrel. In the evening, we focus on the annual rate of the core US PCE price index in June, the monthly rate of US personal spending in June, and the consumer confidence index of the US Conference Board in July. The current expected performance of the US dollar will affect the market's judgment of the upcoming Fed monetary policy. At present, the KDJ index curve shows a parallel downward trend, and the technical performance is weak. Wait for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lentong can hold the $5980 / ton mark at night.

 

Today, Shanghai Copper main contract 1909 opened at 47280 yuan / ton early in the morning, opening to the afternoon trend are stable, the center of gravity basically maintained at 4727047360 yuan / ton near a narrow range of concussion finishing. In the afternoon, the market fell slightly to 47180 yuan / ton, followed by a small rebound and maintained near 47200 yuan / ton shock finishing, after a small consolidation continued to decline to the lowest level of 47130 yuan / ton, the end of the day rose slightly and closed at 47240 yuan / ton, up 350 yuan / ton, up 0.75 per cent. Shanghai Copper's main contract today reduced its position by 8924 hands to 231000, mainly by short positions, while trading volume increased by 17000 hands to 136000. Positions in the Shanghai Copper Index fell 9528 hands to 567000 today, while trading volume rose 27000 hands to 275000. At present, the 12th round of trade talks between China and the United States is under way, the market is optimistic about the negotiations, copper prices are basically volatile today, and the Federal Reserve will announce a decision to cut interest rates this week, which will guide copper prices. Today, Shanghai copper closing Yang, is the first time after the six consecutive Yin decline closed in Dayangzhu, KDJ indicators open to expand, the technical side of the good price trend. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai copper can stand at 47300 yuan / ton.

 

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is quoted for 10 to 60 yuan per ton of water, 47260 yuan to 47350 yuan per ton of copper for flat water and 47300 yuan to 47350 yuan per ton for copper in water. Lun Copper broke through the US $6000 mark to a high of 6023 yuan per ton, while Shanghai Copper also rose as high as 47300 yuan per ton, an increase of nearly 400 yuan per ton. In the morning, the holder quoted water 20 to 60 yuan / ton, the willingness to push the price remained unchanged, but the transaction was limited. In the morning market, some traders received flat water copper near 10 yuan / ton, then flat water copper stabilized at 20 to 30 yuan / ton, good copper stabilized at 50 to 60 yuan / ton, there is no room for pressure, and there is almost no price difference between good copper and flat water copper. Wet copper continues the state of tight price, stable in the discount 20 to 10 yuan / ton, only part of the low-end imported copper in the discount 30 yuan / ton line. At the end of the month, copper futures rose, but the spot market did not see the exchange of goods, the quotation is still strong, the main reason is still the recent arrival of imported copper limited, most traders do not have financial pressure, so there is no discount source of throwing goods, at the same time, it is also difficult to carry up the water at the end of the month, the market transaction activity is low, continue to stalemate the characteristics of the saw. In the afternoon, as the disk is still stable and high, the market quotation is still strong, the market trading is suppressed by high prices, the performance is light. In the afternoon, copper water reported 10-20 yuan / ton of water, good copper reported 40-60 yuan / ton of water, the transaction price is in the range of 46860 yuan / ton-46930 yuan / ton.

 

Aluminum: Lun Al opened at US $1815 per ton in the morning. In the Asian session, Lun Al continued to maintain a narrow range of oscillations within a limited range of 5 days, with an amplitude of about US $5 per ton. As of 15: 00, aluminum was quoted at US $1813 per ton. In Europe, the volatility intensified, first as low as $1809 a tonne, and then quickly rose, trying to break through the 5-day moving average above $1819.5 a tonne as of 17: 24. Expected to cut interest rates under the US finger rise for non-ferrous metal prices is relatively limited, today's LME inventory report showed an increase of 7075 tons of aluminum, is expected to maintain the evening Lunal average below the 5-day narrow range of volatility, part of the profit long lead to continue to narrow the amplitude of Lunal.

 

Shanghai Aluminum main 1909 contract opened in the morning at 13945 yuan / ton. The day before the opening of the profit long left the market, Shanghai aluminum low touched 13885 yuan / ton, and then the day low led to the long again, Shanghai aluminum rebounded to the 60-day moving average in the afternoon, the high led to part of the short entry. However, bulls have strong confidence and continue to increase their positions at the end of the day. Shanghai Aluminum 1909 contract concussion closed at 13930 yuan / ton. The position increased by 3886 to 239080, the 1910-2001 contract increased in varying degrees, a total of more than 22000 positions, and the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased its position by 15586 to 713872. Bulls are confident in the strong expectations of a rate cut in the US dollar and the fact that social aluminium ingot inventories continue to fall rather than increase. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to remain volatile at a high of 13900 to 14000 yuan per ton in the evening, pending Thursday's US dollar interest rate resolution and the performance of inventory data.

 

In the spot market, aluminum futures fell slightly at the start of the month, with a sharp rise in the second trading range at the end of the day. In the early stage, the spot price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi and Shanghai was between 13890 and 13910 yuan / ton, about 10 yuan / ton on the flat surface, 30 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, and the price in Hangzhou was between 13910 and 13930 yuan / ton. In the morning, a large receiving price is more recognized by the holder, the holder is active, the middleman is active, and the aluminum price rises rapidly after 11: 00. Although the market holder still has an offer at a high price, it is concentrated in the vicinity of 13920 to 13930 yuan / ton, and the flat surface of the plate is near 10 yuan / ton, but the transaction activity drops rapidly at this time, and the receiver is afraid of high, but there is no deal. Downstream on-demand procurement today, there is no obvious receipt of goods, the response is mediocre. The overall transaction in East China today was all right. In the afternoon aluminum maintained range fluctuations, the holder quoted around 13910 to 13920 yuan / ton, near the plate review, although there is a quotation, but the actual transaction is almost no transaction, the downstream is light.

 

Lead: within a day, Lun lead opened at US $2061.5 / tonne. In the Asian period, Lun lead basically ran along the daily average. After the US Index continued to strengthen, the outer plate of non-ferrous metals fell under collective pressure. Into the European period, as LME lead stocks increased by more than 10,000 tons, Lun lead accelerated and fell, and reached US $2021.5 / ton. As of 18 / 02, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $2025.5 / ton, down US $31 / ton, or 1.51 per cent. Lun lead temporarily closed the Dayin line, along the downward channel operation, and the 5-day moving average turn down, it is expected that today's LME lead discount contango structure may be expanded, night Lun lead or continue the weak market.

 

Within a day, the Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16730 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead in the bulls to promote, twice moved up the center of gravity, but 16800 yuan / ton platform pressure is strong, all pressure fell, near the close, part of the short panic left the market, Shanghai lead shock climbed to 16850 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16835 yuan / ton, up 145 yuan / ton, up 0.87%, the position was reduced by 1020 hands to 63818 hands. Shanghai lead closed Dayang line, basically make up for the recent decline, but the external market lead trend back up the previous increase, to a certain extent, may drag down the Shanghai lead trend, Shanghai lead at night or continue the high concussion market.

 

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16725 to 17755 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 20 to 50 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang area Jijin, Wanyang, Yuguang, Minshan lead 16665 to 16685 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 40 to 20 yuan / ton. With the fall of the high level of the futures market, coupled with the narrowing of the renewable refined lead discount (250 yuan / ton factory for the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead), the discount quoted by the holder is also slightly narrowed, while the downstream basically maintains on-demand procurement, and the transaction improvement in the bulk order market is limited.

 

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead water 50 yuan / ton quotation; Jingui 16640 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 80 yuan / ton; lead shock higher, downstream procurement to refinery supplies, the trade market is relatively light. Henan Yuguang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Wanyang, Jinli 16525 to 16575 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton offer; lead price shock is strong, storage enterprises afraid of high careful mining, market transactions are general. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16625 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price flat water quotation (trader source); Hunan Jingui 16525 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price discount 16525 yuan / ton; Jiang copper 16655 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price 30 yuan / ton quotation; Jiangxi Jinde 16600 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price discount 25 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory quoted 16275 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average discount 350 yuan / ton; The holder actively ships the goods, the terminal consumption has not seen the obvious improvement for the time being, the market trading mood is general.

 

Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $2465.5 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, the daily moving average of zinc in Geneva climbed to US $2485 / tonne, rising US $2488 / ton and moving down to US $2475 / tonne. Near the European trading session, Lun Zinci returned to rise and rushed another US $2485 / ton. As of 16 / 24, it closed up US $2474 / ton, up US $14 / ton, or 0.57 per cent. Geneva zinc temporarily closed Xiaoyang line, the overall jump on the 40-day moving average operation, LME zinc back structure once again expanded, inventory is still not shown to increase, Geneva zinc inventory recorded a continuous decline, indicating a renewed expansion of overseas supply contradiction, superimposed Fed interest rate cut expected to enhance the resumption of trade negotiations with the United States and China, the action on zinc can or still show strong, pay attention to the lower 40-day moving average support at night.

 

The main 1909 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, and the bulls neatly entered the market at the beginning of the day to boost Shanghai zinc up to 19785 yuan / ton, but under the suppression of the 60-day moving average, the pressure on Shanghai zinc fell back to 19680 yuan / ton, and then quickly returned to the 19700 yuan / ton line, falling steadily in the afternoon, giving up some of the gains in the day, closing up 19690 yuan / ton, up 1.63% from the previous transaction, and the trading volume increased by 36428 hands to 373000 hands. Reduce your position by 8672 to 254000. In terms of macro sentiment, the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to be superimposed by the resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations, giving Shanghai zinc a certain amount of action energy. From a basic point of view, the northern refinery overhauled the superimposed import window has not been opened, the domestic warehouse has not arrived at the warehouse, the inventory has not yet accumulated, and the short confidence in the day has weakened and closed out. At night, Shanghai zinc is still strong enough to run near the 40-day moving average.

 

Shanghai 0 # zinc mainstream transactions in 19680-19790 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transactions in 19700-19800 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary August water 60-70 yuan / ton; Shuangyan water 70-80 yuan / ton. 1 # the mainstream transaction is between 19600 and 19700 yuan per ton. Zinc futures rose at the same time the structure of the month / next month turned positive, the market trading atmosphere obviously weakened, downstream turned to wait-and-see again, the single trading of traders also slowed down, the market shipment intention is higher, the quotation fell slightly, the morning market is still holding a steady report on the August rise of 70 to 80 yuan / ton, but there is little feedback, the net average price as the benchmark transaction is not as good as yesterday. Entering the second trading period, some of the holders of poor transactions took the initiative to lower their quotations to about 60-70 yuan / ton, and some of them turned to shipment of 30-40 yuan / ton of rising water in September, while the consignee tended to receive the goods at a low price. However, the differences between the two sides of the transaction did not heat up the transaction, and the quotations of other downstream brands have been downgraded, and the overall transaction within the day is further weaker than that of yesterday.

 

Guangdong 0 # zinc mainstream trading in 19570 19630 yuan / ton, 90 to 70 yuan / ton discount to Shanghai zinc 1909 contract, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market to maintain the discount around 120 yuan / ton yesterday. The plate rose and pulled up, the refinery actively shipped, the circulation of goods in the market was very abundant, and the quotation from the holder was relatively chaotic in the morning, with an average price of-10 yuan per ton, and a discount of 40 yuan to 50 yuan per ton for contract 09. However, due to monthly difference and structural changes, some holders changed to quote a discount of 30 to 40 yuan per ton for the contract of 08 for that month, which continued to expand in reverse with the monthly difference., The transaction situation of the contract quotation holders of the current month has improved slightly, entering the second trading period, the market transaction is concentrated on the 09 contract discount 80-90 yuan / ton, the overall transaction atmosphere continues to be light, some traders contribute to a small number of transactions, Guangdong market transactions today are basically flat than yesterday. 0# Kirin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 19570 19630 yuan / ton.

 

Tianjin market 0 # zinc ingot mainstream transaction in 19680-20380 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand mainstream transaction in 19690-19810 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 30-80 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai market yesterday to maintain 20 yuan / ton discount around. It happened that when the disk went up, refineries actively shipped, and the market supply circulation was relatively abundant. Early quotations from shipowners focused on rising water by 30 to 80 yuan / ton for 08 contracts, and 70 to 80 yuan per ton for high-priced brands. The supply of ordinary brands was lower than yesterday to 40 yuan per ton for 08 contracts. The market transaction improved, the trading atmosphere warmed slightly, and rigid demand was maintained downstream. Contributed to the main volume of transactions today. Overall, trading in Tianjin today is significantly better than yesterday. 0 # Zijin, Hongye, lark, Chihong and other transactions in 19690 19810 yuan / ton, 1 # Zijin, Chi Hong, Hongye and other transactions in 19630 19760 yuan / ton.

 

Tin: after the opening of the $17615 / ton electronic disk today, after the opening of the sub-session, the Lunxi overall showed a concussion upward trend, climbing to $17680 / ton to maintain horizontal finishing. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi quickly fell to $17565 / ton and then rose slightly. As of 17 / 00, Lunxi's latest price is $17590 / tonne, a small negative line, below all EMA, below which support is expected to be near the previous low of $17500 / tonne. Recently, we can pay attention to the changes in API crude oil stocks (10,000 barrels) in the week ended July 26 in the United States and the 12th round of high-level negotiations on Sino-US trade in the early morning of the next day.

 

After the opening of 134020 yuan / ton last night, the main tin 1909 contract in Shanghai fell rapidly to a low of 133620 yuan / ton last night, and then the bottom of the tin probe in Shanghai rose rapidly to around 134200 yuan / ton above the daily average and maintained consolidation. This morning trading 134270 yuan / ton after the opening of the long position, Shanghai tin small shock upward, climbing to 134900 yuan / ton, the bulls left the market center of gravity fell back, and finally closed at 134400 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday. The trading volume was 16016, a decrease of 5680. The position is 25282 hands, reduced by 432 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a small positive line, more stable than yesterday's center of gravity. It is estimated that the resistance above tin in the short-term Shanghai period is about 136000 yuan / ton, and the support below is about 134000 yuan / ton.

 

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price of 1345000 to 136000 yuan / ton, near the end of the month downstream enterprises buy Xing weak, Shanghai and tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is weak. Set Yunxi water 1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word water 500 800 yuan / ton, small brand water 300 400 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: the Lennie sub-plate opened at $14355 a tonne today, with its center of gravity fluctuating within a narrow range around the daily average at the start of the day. In the middle of the day, the nickel pulled up, rising $14485 a tonne, and the center of gravity fluctuated slightly around the $14400 per tonne line. In the afternoon, the dollar rose nickel back before noon all rose, to the daily average below a small shock. Into the European session, euro zone data released, the euro fell, the dollar rose 98.107, nickel continued to fluctuate downward, as of 16-30, reported at $14275 / tonne. The nickel is temporarily closed at the Xiaoyin line, standing above the 5-day moving average as a whole, bearing pressure on the 10-day moving average of $14400 / ton. At night, we will focus on whether the nickel can stand on the 5-day moving average and hold the $14200 / ton mark. This evening, we will focus on the monthly rate of personal expenditure in the United States in June, the monthly rate of contracted sales of existing homes in June and the consumer confidence index of the Conference Board in July. The 12th round of Sino-US high-level economic and trade consultations was held in Shanghai, China, from 30 to 31 July.

 

Shanghai nickel 1910 opened at 112490 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the day, the center of gravity fluctuated around the first line of 112250 yuan / ton. Near the close of the afternoon, long positions increased, Shanghai nickel rose slightly, and the pressure of 113500 yuan / ton was fluctuated within a narrow range. In the afternoon, the bulls left the market, Shanghai nickel fell back to 112200 yuan / ton line, back to all increases before noon, the center of gravity around 112400 yuan / ton line of small shock, closed at 112570 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 2270 yuan / ton, up 2.06%, trading volume decreased 164000 hands to 901000 hands. The number of positions increased by 19100 to 361000, the Shanghai nickel index increased by nearly 25000, and the inflow of funds reached 370 million yuan. The Shanghai Ni 1910 contract ended at the Xiaoyang line, breaking through the 5-day moving average and going up to the 10-day moving average. In the evening, we will pay attention to whether Shanghai Ni can stand above the 5-day moving average and hold the 112000 yuan / ton barrier.

 

SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 111700 to 113900 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 discount 150-discount 100 yuan / ton range, slightly narrowed than yesterday. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally reported a water rise of 2000 yuan / ton, an increase from yesterday. Some traders have reported a water increase of 1800 yuan per ton, but the quantity is limited. Early trading hours, nickel prices around 111800 yuan / ton strong finishing, continued last night's rally, prices higher led to the existing light goods, cautious procurement, and traders due to low prices are not easy to receive, transactions are also light. In the second trading session, nickel prices continued to rush to around 112700 tons, spot trading continued in the morning mood, wait-and-see. In the near future, Russian nickel and Jinchuan nickel can be circulated to tighten the source of goods, resulting in a strong willingness of the holder to lift the water. Jinchuan ex-factory price of 113500 yuan / ton, up 2000 yuan / ton from yesterday, the mainstream transaction at 112200-114300 yuan / ton. Afternoon nickel prices fell back to 112000 yuan after the opening of the shock, but for the spot trading stimulus is limited, the day trading is not as active as yesterday, the mainstream transaction at 119800 to 114000 yuan / ton.

 

Click to sign up for this summit

 

Click to sign up for this summit

Scan QR code and apply to join SMM metal exchange group, please indicate company + name + main business

 

Daily review of SMM
daily review of basic metals

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn