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July 29 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
Jul 29,2019 17:06CST
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Source:SMM
July 29 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
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Copper: Yapan Lun Copper opened at US $5965 / tonne today. After the opening of trading, due to the slight rise in the price of crude oil in the morning, copper prices rose US $5979 / ton in the short term, but the upward momentum was obviously not enough. As the US dollar broke through its 98-point high, copper prices fluctuated all the way, and bulls closed their positions actively until they entered the European market, and the overall center of gravity remained stable at US $5958 / ton. After a short-term probe of US $5650 per ton, the center of gravity of copper rose slightly to near the daily average, maintaining a narrow concussion pattern. At 17-20, bronze was down 0.01% at $5963 a tonne, the dollar index at $98.063 and crude at $56.20 a barrel. The evening data were light, and markets waited for the upcoming 12th China-US talks and the Fed's monetary policy guidance. At present, Lun Copper is closed in a cross-like star, and the overall center of gravity is supported by Brin's middle orbit, and the KDJ index is expected to rise in the low position. Wait for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether the copper can break through $5970 a tonne at night.

 

This morning, the main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 46890 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the disk moved up slightly to the highest level of 46970 yuan / ton in the day, then the center of gravity moved down slightly, and settled around 46930 yuan / ton. The consolidation trend lasted until the afternoon. The center of gravity of the opening session remained basically unchanged in the afternoon, fluctuating between 46880 and 46940 yuan / ton, and fluctuated little today, fluctuating within the price range of 100yuan / ton, closing at 46900 yuan / ton, down 160yuan / ton, down 0.34 per cent. Shanghai Copper's main contract today reduced its position by 2836 hands to 240000, mainly due to long positions, while trading volume increased by 12000 hands to 119000. At present, the trend of backward position of Shanghai Copper is obvious, today, the position of Shanghai Copper 1910 contract increased by 13000 hands to 143000 hands, and the position of Shanghai Copper Index increased by 6566 hands to 576000 hands today. Trading volume increased by 53000 hands to 248000. As the market awaits this week's Fed decision on interest rates, the dollar continues to strengthen today, hitting 98.1 levels; copper prices are hovering around $46900 a ton under pressure. We will continue to follow the progress of the Sino-US trade negotiations tomorrow and will guide copper prices. Shanghai copper today a small negative, the upper pressure 60-day moving average, KDJ index negative expansion, the technical side does not support the copper price up. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can stand at the 47000 yuan / ton gate.

 

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is 70 yuan / ton, the transaction price of copper is 46870 yuan / ton ~ 46920 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of copper is 46920 yuan / ton ~ 46970 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper is still continuing the concussion pattern, along the 46900 yuan / ton line finishing. In the morning, the quoted price is 20 yuan / ton to 70 yuan / ton, the market stops to wait and see, the willingness to change is low, the price of flat water copper is about 10 yuan / ton, and the good copper is stable at 60 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the holder took the initiative to reduce the price, and around 50 yuan / ton of good copper rising water, flat copper remained stable at 10 yuan / ton of rising water. Under the capital pressure of enterprises at the end of the month, the goods were centrally thrown at the front line of Pingshui, and the downstream rigid demand was maintained. The supply of wet copper was tight, and there was almost no price difference with the imported low-end flat copper. The transaction was gradually carried up in the discount of 20 yuan to 10 yuan per ton. On Monday, the market was still more cautious, and the trade activity was insufficient. Downstream continued rigid demand procurement, the market continues to show the characteristics of supply and demand. In the afternoon, there was basically no great change in the market, the overall transaction of the market also continued to remain light, flat water copper has no water supply, other quotations remain stable. In the afternoon, copper water reported 10-20 yuan / ton of water, good copper reported 50-60 yuan / ton of water, the transaction price is in the range of 46860 yuan / ton-46930 yuan / ton.

 

Aluminum: Lun Al opened at US $1806.5 per ton in the morning. In Asia, the aluminium kept a narrow range above the 60 moving average, with an amplitude of less than $10 a tonne, hitting an intraday high of $1810.5 a tonne in the afternoon, trading at $1804.5 as of 15: 00. In Europe, as the US index strengthened and rose above 98, Lun Aluminum continued to weaken, falling below the 60 / 40 moving average, hitting a low of US $1801 per tonne, followed by a concussion of the US Index's high level, with Lun Aluminum making a concussion around the 40-day moving average, which was reported at US $1801 per tonne as of 17: 51. Before the US dollar officially cut interest rates, the United States Index strengthened, non-ferrous general pressure, Lun Aluminum also returned to the previous gains, Lun Aluminum is expected to maintain a 40-day moving average in the evening, testing its support. The decline is relatively limited against the backdrop of a high probability that the dollar will cut interest rates.

 

Shanghai Aluminum main contract 1909 contract opened in the morning at 13895 yuan / ton. After the opening of trading, the air level into Shanghai aluminum rose slightly as high as 13900 yuan / ton. Subsequently, bulls obviously lack confidence, in the day before the announcement of social inventory quickly closed positions left the market, Shanghai Aluminum quickly fell to the 10 moving average. Subsequently, due to the social aluminum ingot inventory continued to maintain a small reduction, short of the same lack of confidence, continue to leave the market, so that Shanghai aluminum around the 10-day moving average to maintain a narrow range of shock, during which Shanghai aluminum low touch 13855 yuan / ton. A small number of bulls entered the market at the end of the day, and the Shanghai aluminum shock closed at 13880 yuan / ton. Positions fell 8376 hands to 235194 hands, and the Shanghai Aluminum Index fell 4918 hands to 698286 hands. Driven by the strength of the US index and the weakness of the external market, Shanghai aluminum bulls' confidence is obviously insufficient, but the small decline in inventories makes short positions also remain on the sidelines. As the lower moving average gradually tightens to form support and inventory continues to decline, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a narrow range of volatility, while still need to pay attention to the external Lun aluminum may lead the decline.

 

Spot market, aluminum futures fell at the start of the month, the second trading range to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations. In the afternoon, the spot price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi and Shanghai was between 13860 and 13870 yuan / ton, and the flat surface of the plate was about 10 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton from Friday. The price difference between the monthly ticket and the next month's ticket is less than 10 yuan / ton, and the price in Hangzhou is between 13870 and 13880 yuan / ton. In the morning, a large household received nearly 10,000 tons of goods, the holder recognized the price, the shipment was very active, the middleman's willingness to reverse the goods was obvious, the receiving of the goods was OK, and the market was more active. Downstream due to Friday procurement volume is less this week back to the need for replenishment, coupled with Monday aluminum prices fell to an acceptable range, it is good to receive goods today. East China today as a whole, the transaction is better. In the late afternoon, the aluminum rush fell back, although the market quoted in 13870 to 13880 yuan / ton, flat water on the plate-10 yuan / ton, but there was little deal.

 

Lead: within a day, the Lun lead opened at US $2065.5 / ton. In the Asian session, the Lun lead basically ran along the daily average. In the afternoon, as the US Index returned to the vicinity of 98, and the internal Shanghai lead weakened, dragging down the concussion of the Lun lead, into the European period, the Lun lead once reached US $2045.5 / ton. After the market entered the market, the Lun lead returned slightly. As of 16 to 21, the Lun lead temporarily closed at US $2059 per ton, down US $16 per ton. It fell by 0.77%. Lun lead temporarily closed the small negative line, the downward channel initially appeared, and the LME lead rise sticker changed from back to contango structure, as well as the continuous decline of LME lead inventory, the short position may continue to enter the market at night, and the support of the 10-day EMA below will be tested by Lun lead or test the support of the 10-day EMA.

 

Within a day, the Shanghai lead 1909 contract opened at 16645 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, more short and reduced, the Shanghai lead operation center of gravity moved up to 16735 yuan / ton line, however 16750 yuan / ton platform exists suppression, Shanghai lead upward pace slows, near noon, many heads choose to avoid danger to leave the market one after another, Shanghai lead then concussion catharsis, finally closes at 16670 yuan / ton, drops 165 yuan / ton, drops 0.98%, the position reduces 3456 hands to 64838 hands. Shanghai lead closed Xiaoyin line, fell back at the high, considering that the outer plate lead also formed a downward channel, and it is more difficult to turn over at night, so the night Shanghai lead or continuation of the pullback market, the 5-day EMA support role is weak.

 

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16725 to 17755 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 20 to 50 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang area Jijin, Wanyang, Yuguang, Minshan lead 16665 to 16685 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 40 to 20 yuan / ton. With the fall of the high level of the futures market, coupled with the narrowing of the renewable refined lead discount (250 yuan / ton factory for the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead), the discount quoted by the holder is also slightly narrowed, while the downstream basically maintains on-demand procurement, and the transaction improvement in the bulk order market is limited.

 

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead water 50 yuan / ton quotation; Jingui 16625 yuan / ton, 1908 contract discount 80 yuan / ton; Yunsha 16625 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price flat water quotation. Lead continues high shock, downstream is still dominated by rigid demand, market trading in Henan Province Yuguang and other smelters to long single trading; Wanyang, Jinli 16525 to 16575 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton to discount 100 yuan / ton quotation; lead price shock operation, storage enterprises afraid of high careful mining, market transactions in general. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16625 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price flat water quotation (trader source); Hunan Jingui 16525 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price discount 16525 yuan / ton; Jiang copper 16645 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price rise water 20 yuan / ton quotation; Jiangxi Jinde 16605 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average discount 20 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory quoted 16275 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average discount price 350 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Jinde 16605 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price 20 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory quoted 16275 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average discount 350 yuan / ton; The holder continues the discount shipment, the terminal consumption is relatively depressed, the market trading mood is general.

 

Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $2442 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, the daily average climbed to US $2450 per tonne after a small step down, during which two attempts to test the suppression of the 40-day moving average failed. In the afternoon, Len Zinc based above the daily moving average, fluctuated around US $2450 / t, rising US $15.5 / t, up US $15.5 / t, or 0.63 per cent. Geneva zinc temporarily closed bald small positive line, above the 40-day moving average suppression is strong, overseas market return to the back structure, LME zinc inventory recorded a decline of more than 2, 000 tons, highlighting the overseas market spot supply or shortage, inventory continued to decline for overseas fundamentals still support, night attention to the above 40-day moving average suppression.

 

Within days, the main Shanghai zinc 1909 contract opened at 19305 yuan / ton, the beginning of the day long into the market to boost Shanghai zinc uplink to 19400 yuan / ton line finishing operation, and then Brindao middle track support strength appeared, Shanghai zinc once again rose to 19480 yuan / ton, steady upward, closed up 19495 yuan / ton, compared with the previous transaction rose 270 yuan / ton, up 1.40%, trading volume increased 30148 hands to 336000 hands, position decreased 890 hands to 262000 hands. Within a day, Shanghai zinc stopped falling and turned red, closing a big positive line, on the shadow line, the 40-day moving average was suppressed, and the KDJ index turned upward, indicating that the action in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin was stronger, and the social inventory in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin fell again within the day, or gave certain support to the zinc price, but the 40-day moving average above the 40-day moving average and 19500 yuan / ton pass suppression was still strong, and operated at night or around the middle track of Brin Road.

 

Shanghai 0 # zinc mainstream transaction 1930 to 19520 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 1930 to 19530 yuan / ton; 0 # ordinary monthly ticket to August reported water rise of 70 to 80 yuan / ton; Shuangyan current monthly ticket to August reported water rise of 80 yuan / ton; 1 # mainstream transaction in 1960 to 1920 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, traders traded more and less, and occasionally the average price of long orders fluctuated. In the morning market, traders offered a tentative quotation of 80 yuan per ton for the current month, while the latter part of the quotation went down to 70 yuan per ton for the month, and the market transaction was still very few. There has been a slight increase in ticket transactions next month, mainly for the month's rise of 60 yuan per ton. Into the second trading period, trading sentiment further diluted, the disk upstream after the downstream inquiry is few. Today's transaction was further worse than last Friday.

 

Guangdong 0 # zinc mainstream transaction in 19280 to 19400 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1909 contract discount 50 to 40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market discount 120 yuan / ton to discount 130 yuan / ton. The refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. Disk upward, smelter active shipment, market supply circulation is more abundant, the morning holder quotation concentrated in the average price of-10 yuan / ton, but the market transaction did not appear. Enter the second trading period, the holder focused on the 09 contract discount 50 to 40 yuan / ton, but the disk surface rose again, downstream willingness to receive goods significantly lighter, as a whole, today's Guangdong market transactions significantly worse than yesterday, 0 # Kirin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mongolia since the mainstream transactions in 19280 to 19400 yuan / ton.

 

Tianjin market 0 # zinc ingot mainstream transaction in 1930 20150 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand mainstream transaction in 1930 1990 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 40 to 80 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai stock market to maintain a discount of 10 yuan / ton. The main trend of 0 # zinc ingots in Tianjin market is 1930 to 20150 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand mainstream is 1930 to 1990 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton to 1908 contract. Disk upward, the market supply circulation is more abundant, the morning holder quotation concentrated on the 08 contract rising water 40-110 yuan / ton, but the disk continued to pull up, the downstream to wait-and-see and inquiry-based, the market did not close, the follow-up holders downgraded the rising water to the 08 contract rising water 40-80 yuan / ton, the market has a small transaction, the transaction is mostly concentrated in the low-price brand supply. Overall, today's rally and continue to pull up, the willingness to wait and see downstream is stronger, the willingness to receive goods is not good, the overall transaction situation is lighter than last Friday. 0 # Zijin, Hongye, lark, Chi Hong, etc., were sold in 1930 to 1990 yuan / ton, and 1 # Zijin, Chi Hong, Hongye, etc., were sold in 1980 to 1940 yuan / ton.

 

Tin: after the opening of the electronic disk of US $17655 / ton today, the overall consolidation near the opening price was maintained between early trading and noon trading in the Asian market. After a small pullback to $17625 a tonne in the afternoon, Rensi maintained a high consolidation level as high as $17710 a tonne. After the opening of the European trade, the market remained high and volatile at the beginning of the day, but then the dollar index broke through the 98 mark, and the pressure on Lensi fell back. As of 17-15, the latest price of Rensi was US $17590 / ton, which is a small negative line, located below all EMA. It is expected to support around US $17500 / ton below Lensi. The data today is relatively light, and we can focus on the Sino-US trade negotiations in the next two days in the near future.

 

Shanghai tin main 1909 contract Friday night after the opening of 135500 yuan / ton, early trading quickly fell to 134700 yuan / ton to maintain the consolidation situation. After the opening of 134550 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, after falling rapidly to an intraday low of 133400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, the market moved slowly back to rise, gradually recovering most of the losses since the start of trading today, and finally closing at 134400 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton, down 0.67 per cent. The trading volume was 21696, an increase of 4096. The number of positions was 25714, a reduction of 1520. Today, Shanghai tin due to the bulls left the field twice rapid decline, although the subsequent rise, but the center of gravity is still more obvious lower than the previous period, to close to the negative line, the physical part is located near the 5-20 EMA. Today, Shanghai tin failed to effectively fall below the triangular finishing range, it is expected to support 134000 yuan / ton below Shanghai tin, and the upper resistance is near 135600 yuan / ton.

 

Spot market, today's mainstream trading price 1345000 135500 yuan / ton, early Shanghai tin main 1909 contract fell sharply, the lowest down to 133400 yuan / ton, some businesses replenish goods on the cheap. But then the disk low has rebounded, the market performance cautious stop, the transaction atmosphere weakens. Today, the overall trading atmosphere of the Shanghai tin spot market is general. Set Yunxi rising water 1200 to 1500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 700 to 1000 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 500 to 600 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: the nickel sub-plate opened at US $14140 / ton today. At the beginning of the day, or by the upward pressure of the US dollar, the daily average of nickel pressure fell all the way down to the US $14000 / ton barrier. In the middle of the day, the nickel was arranged horizontally at $14030 a tonne. In the afternoon, the nickel fell below 10, 000 and continued to fall, falling $13885 a tonne and rebounding back to the $14000 / tonne line, reporting at $14035 a tonne as of 16-30. Lennie temporarily closed at the small negative line, above the pressure of the 5-day moving average, the evening focus on whether Lennie can hold the US $14000 / ton barrier. Focus on the Dallas Fed Business activity Index for July.

 

Shanghai nickel 1910 opened today at 110880 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the plate, the pressure-bearing 5-day moving average concussion downward, to 110000 yuan / ton gate to get support, the center of gravity around 110200 yuan / ton first-line concussion finishing. In the afternoon, short positions increased, Shanghai nickel fell sharply, falling below the 110000 yuan / ton mark, down 108920 yuan / ton, followed by Shanghai nickel shock revised up to close at 109450 yuan / ton, down 1090 yuan / ton, down 0. 99% from the previous day's settlement price, position volume increased 6022 hands to 342000 hands, trading volume decreased 256000 hands to 1.065 million hands. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Ni 1910 contract closed at the Xiaoyin line, bearing pressure on the 5-day moving average above, focusing on whether Shanghai Ni can operate above the 108000 yuan / ton barrier in the evening.

 

SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 110,000 to 112000 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 discount 200-paste 150 yuan / ton or so, but the actual transaction to discount 250 yuan / ton is more positive, narrowed slightly than last Friday. Jinchuan nickel generally reported a water rise of 1800 yuan per ton compared with the Shanghai nickel 1908 contract, slightly narrower than last week. In early trading, nickel prices rose and fell back, in the process of falling, 110700, 110500, 110300 have a small amount of transactions, Russian nickel and Jinchuan nickel have. The holder's willingness to push up the discount is strong, mainly due to the low inflow of goods in the later period. Jinchuan company maintenance stage, the supply is tight. The second trading period, nickel prices around 109000 yuan / ton consolidation, spot transactions slightly improved than in the morning, but the overall pace of taking goods is still cautious, downstream on-demand procurement, traders are also willing to post 300yuan / ton replenishment, but low-priced goods are difficult to find. Jinchuan ex-factory price of 111500 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from Friday, the mainstream transaction at 109700 to 111800 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, nickel prices fell sharply after the opening of trading, to a certain extent stimulated the enthusiasm of spot transactions, trading slightly improved than in the morning, downstream 109000 concentrated in the market procurement, the mainstream transaction at 108800 to 111000 yuan / ton.

 

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