Home / Metal News / Copper / [SMM Review] Hot coil threads fell by more than 1 per cent. Most of the floating green, colored green manure, red and thin crude oil fell by nearly 0.5 per cent.
[SMM Review] Hot coil threads fell by more than 1 per cent. Most of the floating green, colored green manure, red and thin crude oil fell by nearly 0.5 per cent.
Jul 29,2019 10:03CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 29 month news: this morning non-ferrous metal market green manure red thin, as of 09:50 in the morning, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.9%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.3%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.5%, Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.7%; macroscopically, after the Osaka meeting between Chinese and American heads of state, Chinese enterprises made positive progress in purchasing American agricultural products, and millions of tons of American soybeans have been shipped to China. At the same time, the US side announced tariff exemptions on 110 items of Chinese industrial products exported to the United States, and expressed its willingness to push US enterprises to continue to supply the relevant Chinese enterprises, while the market waited for the landing of heavy risk incidents.

In the black system, the hot coil fell nearly 1.4%, the thread fell nearly 1.2%, coke and coking coal fell nearly 0.1%, and iron ore floated red alone, rising nearly 0.6%; on the news side, the recent iron and steel production restrictions in Tangshan area of Hebei Province have been strictly enforced, and then meet the high temperature in the south, steel stocks have accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks, and terminal demand has been continuously suppressed, but the Ministry of Ecology and Environment requires that class A enterprises with ultra-low emissions should not stop and limit production this winter.

The last crude oil fell nearly 0.5%. According to the Meerya shipment news, the safety of the Strait of Hormuz continued to haunt the market atmosphere, the number of US oil rigs continued to decline, the US economic data was better than expected, and the oil market was supported by short-term good news. Although geopolitics is still a major factor supporting the short-term rise in oil prices, but from the inventory data, oil prices due to the accumulation of refined oil stocks caused by demand concerns, the upward drive is not strong. On the one hand, central banks cut interest rates ahead of the Fed to maintain the momentum of economic expansion, economic weakness limits the rise in oil prices; on the other hand, the drag on demand is still a problem that oil prices must face in the medium to long term.


Technical analysis:

Copper: copper prices weakened on Friday night, mainly because of stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP data for the US dollar, which broke through the 98 mark. With the Fed due to announce an interest rate resolution this week, there is little controversy about expectations of a rate cut, but there is little chance of supporting a big rate cut, which is expected to boost copper prices in the short term. There are signs of easing in Sino-US trade, and the US side has announced that it will waive tariffs on 110 items of Chinese industrial exports to the United States, and market sentiment is expected to improve. At the same time, continue to pay attention to the 12th round of trade talks between China and the United States this week, which will guide commodity prices. Before the technical face of Shanghai copper closed negative, the overall center of gravity hovered in the Brin middle rail, below by the 20-day EMA support, the technical side is expected to rebound. Due to the spot market entering the settlement period at the end of the month, the market trading has become light, and the disk performance is temporarily unstable, restraining the buying sentiment. It is expected that today, London Copper 5960 to 6010 / ton, Shanghai Copper 46600 to 47000 yuan / ton, spot discount 20-liter 40 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: last Friday night aluminum price trend is not strong, in the state of weak fundamentals, the operating range is expected to be 13830 to 13930 yuan / ton today, the discount in the paste 20-20 yuan / ton, spot is expected to fall by nearly 50 yuan / ton compared with Friday, it is recommended that a small amount of replenishment downstream. Aluminum prices were weak on Friday night, with the main company expected to run in the range of 13830 to 13930 yuan / ton today, while Lun Aluminum is expected to run between $1780 and $1840 per ton today.

Lead: the high level of lead fell, the upward momentum was blocked, but the upward trend has not changed, there is still the possibility of repetition in the short term, short-term attention to the flow of funds within the day. The high pressure of lead in Shanghai is prominent, and the pressure to strengthen in the short term is greater. Although the fundamentals have improved slightly in the near future, the current market logic is following the external market, and the later opportunity can pay attention to the market after getting rid of the external disturbance.

Zinc: last Friday, Len Zinc received a shaved small positive line, the US finger down Tizhen Lun Zinc rose, LME zinc stocks continue to decline, Lun Zinc fundamentals are still supported, Geneva Zinc may run around $2420 to $2470 / ton. Last Friday, Shanghai zinc stopped falling and turned red, the 10-day moving average on the film line, and domestic inventories fell again based on a certain support from fundamentals, but bulls' confidence remained to be considered under the expectation of an increase in the stock, which may run around 19000 to 19500 yuan per ton within a day. Material 0 # domestic double swallow zinc pair increased by 50% to 90% in August.

Nickel: nickel closed at the small positive line, above the pressure of US $14300 / ton 5-10 moving average crossing, today predicted that the nickel at 14000 to 14400 US dollars / ton range shock; overnight Shanghai nickel closed at the negative cross, above the pressure 5-day moving average, Shanghai nickel is expected to continue to 110000 yuan / ton pass above the shock operation; spot price range of 110000-113500 yuan / ton.

Tin: support below Lunxi is expected to be around the previous low of $17500 per tonne. It is estimated that the resistance above tin in the short-term Shanghai period is about 136000 yuan / ton, and the support below is about 134000 yuan / ton. In the spot market, the focus of the main 1909 contract in Shanghai on Friday night moved down, and the mainstream trading price is expected to be 135000 to 136500 yuan / ton today.


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