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Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.7.22 to 2019.7.26)
Jul 26,2019 19:42CST
translation
Source:SMM
Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.7.22 to 2019.7.26)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

This week, the US dollar rose around 97.9, and the high level of crude oil fell back. After the bulls led the market one after another last week, there was a long profit drop out of the market this week, and the short position was suppressed. Most of the metals fell back to varying degrees, SMMI fell 1.17% per week, especially after two weeks of crazy rise in nickel, the high pressure fell back, and the nickel fell 3.52% per week, and most of the metals fell to varying degrees, SMMI fell 1.17%, especially after two consecutive weeks of crazy rise, the high pressure fell back, and the nickel fell 3.52%. It fell more than $1000, nickel fell 6 per cent in Shanghai, the spot market outperformed futures, the Russian-nickel sticker narrowed slightly, Jinchuan nickel continued to rise on the maintenance base, and SMMI.Ni fell 5.74 per cent, leading all metals down. Zinc continued to bear pressure, the largest decline of zinc has reached 2.5%, Shanghai zinc still has a certain degree of resistance, narrow shock, the weekly decline of only about 1%, spot due to the long single trading cycle rose smoothly, but the transaction activity gradually decreased, SMMI.Zn fell 1.73% per week. London copper fell back from its high near $6000, Shanghai copper fluctuated around 47000 yuan, spot supply and demand froze, rising water fluctuated little, and SMMI.Cu fell 1.45 per cent a week. Shanghai tin interval concussion, spot rising water fell slightly, SMMI.Sn weekly drop 0.18%. During the week, the lead price continued to rush on the bullish market, with the lead price rising from US $2000 to US $2100 per ton and the Shanghai lead target of 17000 yuan per tonne. The center of gravity has moved up to 16800 yuan within the week. The spot discount has expanded, but the spot sales price is still rising. SMMI.PB rose 1.37 per cent per week. Shanghai aluminum first suppressed and then rose, from the first line of 13730 yuan to rise blocked 13950 yuan / ton, spot low transactions active, week after the rebound transaction fell, SMMI.Al week rose 0.14 per cent. At the end of next month, financial pressure will hardly liven up the spot market, but some metal items are still expected to pick up and rise as the market awaits the outcome of the Fed's rate cut and new developments in the Sino-US trade talks. Next week, there may be a strong and weak trend.

Copper: Lun Copper showed a high and falling trend this week. Copper tried to hit the $6100 mark earlier this week as a global interest rate cut swept through, but this week the Fed entered a period of silence before the meeting and this week ushered in the arrival of Britain's new Prime Minister Johnson. Britain's chances of leaving the European Union without an agreement triggered a sharp fall in the pound, falling to a nearly two-year low against the dollar. In addition, this week the IMF again cut its global growth forecast, saying that Britain's unagreed Brexit and US trade policy were the main threats to the global economy, boosting the safe haven currency, the dollar, to 97.9. Despite recent geopolitical and OPEC production cuts, the price of oil has continued to fall as a result of concerns about demand for crude oil. Copper prices began to fall after hitting a high of $6095.5 a tonne on Monday, with bears pushing down as low as $5950 a tonne, with a steady focus near the $6000 mark a week later. This week Luntong daily K line center of gravity fell from the recent moving average above, below temporary 60-day moving average, this week Luntong to short to increase positions, position increased by 6092 hands to 300000 hands.

Shanghai copper showed five consecutive negatives this week. Driven by the upsurge of macro interest rate cuts at the beginning of the week, Shanghai copper was as high as 48390 yuan per ton, approaching the gap formed by trade conflicts in early May. But then the copper price on the impulse performance is insufficient, the copper market fundamental support is weak, Monday the main contract multi-head high profit close to the market more than 40, 000 hands, copper prices fell 46750 yuan / ton, a one-day drop of 1.17 per cent. Subsequently, the overall center of gravity around the Brin middle rail 47000 yuan / ton gate concussion, below there is still 60-day moving average to support, this week Shanghai copper index overall trading volume decreased by 17.7 hands to 1.461 million hands, position decreased by more than 50, 000 hands to 571000 hands, the performance is mainly multi-head reduction.

On the spot side, this week entered the final delivery period of the monthly long order. At the beginning of the week, due to the high disk price, the holder's mood rose gradually, but the downstream fear of high sentiment was strong, more cautious wait-and-see, the market transaction is relatively light, the holder in order to attract transactions to expand to 20 yuan / ton discount to 50 yuan / ton water. Subsequently, as a result of the sharp fall in copper futures, some traders showed their willingness to receive goods in order to buy and sell, and market inquiries increased, but it was difficult to depress the price, and it was difficult to find low-priced goods. The quotation remained stable at 10 yuan in Shengshui-60 yuan per ton in Shengshui, until the weekend long order delivery basically came to an end, and the proportion of the market next month's invoice price increased obviously. The low price of next month's ticket led the market to appear the source of discount goods. However, the differences between supply and demand within the week are obvious, it is difficult to get rid of the sawing state of the transaction.

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum fell sharply at the beginning of the week, and then the interval concussion stabilized. At the beginning of the week, as the market expectations of the Fed rate cut weakened, the US index rebounded sharply, and the high pressure on Lun Al fell back to around $1813 per tonne, followed by a two-day low, but it was difficult to break through due to the restraint of the 5-day moving average above. It softened again from Thursday to $1833 per tonne, and hit the low point of the week again on Friday. As of 16:00 on Friday, Lun Aluminum closed at $1814 per ton, down 13 dollars per ton, down 0.71 percent. Zhou K line finally recorded the Xiaoyin line, the end of five weeks Lianyang, spit out most of last week's increase, below the 40-day moving average, this week trading volume fell 18526 hands to 38298 hands, position volume increased 7620 hands to 699000 hands, Zhou du KDJ third line began to go down. The overall volatility of Lun Aluminum has been small since last month, and the probability of greater volatility is expected to be small next week. We are concerned about the disturbance to the US Index caused by the results of next week's Sino-US economic and trade consultations and the results of macro data such as eurozone GDP and US PMI.

This week Shanghai aluminum first suppression and then rise, as a whole still maintain the interval concussion situation. At the beginning of the day, due to the rebound of the US Index, the Shanghai Aluminum Master Company 1909 contract sank one after another from last week's high of 13995 yuan / ton to 13735 yuan / ton on Wednesday. Subsequently, due to the reduction of social aluminum ingot inventory, the market expected consumption in the future peak season. The aluminum price rose back to 13895 yuan / ton, but the upper space was limited. On Friday, the aluminum price fell slightly again, closing at 13875 yuan / ton. The weekly K line closed at the Xiaoyin line. Trading volume rose 150000 hands to 656000 this week, while positions fell 1118 to 245000, giving up some of last week's gains, with the center of gravity still below the 40-day moving average. As Shanghai aluminum fundamentals have not changed, alumina prices are low, consumption is weak, is expected to remain weak and volatile next week, while waiting for relevant macro events to guide the market, pay attention to next week's official Chinese PMI and U. S. trade account and other macro data.

This week East China aluminum ingot spot overall transaction is better, Friday slightly worse. The spot price in Shanghai is between 13770 and 13930 yuan / ton, the discount is between 20 yuan / ton and 20 yuan / ton, Wuxi spot price is between 13770 and 13930 yuan / ton, Hangzhou spot price is between 13790 and 13950 yuan / ton, and the spot weekly average price is slightly lower than that of last week. This week, a large household still maintained the pace of procurement, the holder's willingness to ship a few days ago was not strong, the middleman received goods actively at low prices, the overall market received more and less, the spot price was firm, and the overall transaction was active. However, the price rise on Friday was slightly urgent. Under the high price, the shippers' willingness to ship was greatly increased, but at this time, the market recipients showed fear of high performance, the trading pattern changed to more and less, and the actual transaction was slightly deadlocked. The same is true of downstream manufacturers, receiving goods at a low price in the first four days of the week, but Friday due to the early part of the inventory plus the price is not appropriate, did not stock up a large number of goods, the performance is mediocre.

Lead: this week, lead stocks continue to brush the recent 10 years low, bulls borrow to pull up the price of lead, a round of "soft warehouse" market started; At the beginning of the week, after the long film line of the Lun lead report on Friday, the funds that fell back from the high level of the market game began to enter, suppressing the concussion of Lun lead, during which it once reached US $2008 per ton, and reported that the physical negative line was closed, but near the 10-day moving average, Lun lead refused to fall deeply. A few days later, the main force used the decline of inventories to cooperate with the pull-up price. During the period, the cumulative three-day inventory of more than 5000 tons, LME lead 0-3 liter discount returned to back,. Lun lead successfully broke through the $2100 mark and reached $2117 a tonne, brushing a new four-month high, rising 3.08 per cent a week to $2110 a tonne as of 14-32. The overall macro is expected to be optimistic next week, market risk preference may be repaired, looking back at the trend of Lun lead, the technical aspect shows an accelerated upward stage, there are no signs of exhaustion; on the basis of fundamentals, next week can focus on tracking the following two contradictory points: the change of 1LME inventory and the change of 0-3 liter discount of 2LME lead. Trading recommended not to go against the trend, waiting for the end of this round of soft positions, technical signs of peaking, and then high to do short operation. The range is expected to range from $220 to $2130 per ton.

This week, the Shanghai lead main contract closely followed the external disk uplink, technically in the uplink channel, but the rising range and rhythm are far inferior to the outer disk; At the beginning of the week, due to the weakening of lead, Shanghai lead fell sharply, reported a long physical negative line, during which it was once as low as 16355 yuan / ton, and then as Lun lead strengthened, Shanghai lead followed the upward trend, closing up for 4 days in a row. At one point, it reached a new high of 16930 yuan / ton, refreshing a three-month high, and then fell slightly. Finally, it was reported at 16805 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.78%, and its position increased by 2906 hands to 68772 hands. Next week, domestic lead has a rising mood. Technically, the rise of Shanghai lead is not very smooth compared with Lun lead, and the high selling pressure is still relatively strong. In addition, the logic of bulls in Shanghai lead is to buy Shanglun lead up, so if the power of high lead is insufficient in the future, Shanghai lead may give priority to start the correction. On the basis of the above, basically all the electrolytic refineries have been overhauled earlier this week, and a certain pressure has been given to lead prices on the supply side. On the demand side, according to SMM, the terminal consumption has improved slightly this week, and the inventory of finished products in downstream dealers and storage enterprises has declined slightly, but the market circulation order is generally in the deep discount transaction. Above, we think that the current supply-side incremental pressure is the main logic to suppress the rising paste water. Next week, if Lun lead enters the callback, On the other hand, domestic consumption has further improved, and in the early stage, there may be the possibility of a backhand to do a reverse set of funds, so that even if domestic prices fall with lead, the decline may not necessarily exceed that of lead. The estimated range is 16450 to 16950 yuan per ton.

This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is 16350 to 16800 yuan per ton. Spot lead prices continued to rise this week, terminal consumption improved slightly, but the purchase of storage enterprises is still more cautious, there is no plan to significantly improve the start-up rate, the overall transaction of the market is general; in terms of primary lead, refineries follow the pace of lead price rise, actively adjust discount shipments, but a few days later, refinery inventory pressure decreased, as of Friday, refinery bulk single mainstream quotation for SMM1# lead price discount 150 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton offer. The trade market holder also actively quotes the shipment, but the absolute price compares the refinery bulk order quotation, the competitiveness is limited, therefore the holder adjusts the discount shipment, but the trade market transaction situation is extremely depressed, as of Friday, the domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to the 1908 contract discount 70 yuan / ton to the discount 20 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, with the fluctuation of lead price, the refinery production profit is better, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled lead discount to SMM1# lead average price 150 yuan / ton to 250 yuan / ton factory.

Zinc: this week, the 40-day moving average of zinc Sanlianyang re-test is still in failure, and the overall operation is weak and stable. At the beginning of the week, the overseas structure continued the support of Contango to offset the decline in inventories, the expectation of loose long-term supply dominated the market, the willingness to do long capital was not strong, but the return on replenishment was relatively limited, and the center of gravity of London Zinc remained stable around US $2420 per tonne. Due to the lack of guidance on fundamentals, the market turned to the macro positive guidance brought about by the Fed's interest rate cut. When non-ferrous metals were generally higher, Len Zinc homeopathic rushed up and retested the 40-day line. In the event of a short sniper to return to most of the gains in the week, back to all EMA narrow consolidation, the operating center of gravity held steady at around $2430 / ton. As of Friday, trading volume was down 18749 to 28154 and positions were down 1457 to 247000.

This week accompanied by short positions into the field, Shanghai zinc main force away from the 40-day moving average narrow range shock, the center of gravity held steady at about 19280 yuan / ton. At present, it is still in the off-season, the demand is stable and weak, at the same time, the growth of domestic smelting capacity is close to the extreme, the marginal variable is relatively small, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent. Although the inventory has not recorded a significant increase for the time being, it only interferes with the mood of filling short positions, which does not constitute a long motivation. Zinc in this cycle is subject to a narrow range of short position adjustment, running around 19280 yuan / ton around the 5, 10, 20 day moving average. The upper and lower space is less than 150 yuan / ton. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index fell 754000 hands to 2.338 million hands, while positions rose 7700 hands to 522000 hands.

This week, the contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1908 in Shanghai market is stable at about 60 yuan / ton, while Shuangyan and Chihong are stable at 80 yuan / ton. This week imports only a small amount of SMC circulation, to maintain the domestic discount 40-30 yuan / ton, near the weekend has rarely heard of. After the zinc price fell this week, the center of gravity of zinc price operation moved down at the beginning of the week, and the second batch of long orders of traders expired at the same time. The demand of current traders and downstream procurement demand was released at the same time, which led to a marked improvement in market transactions. Subsequently, the zinc futures stopped falling and stabilized into the interval shock, because there was no further replenishment demand downstream due to the weakening of orders. At the same time, the demand for replenishment orders also slowed down after the end of most of the long orders within a month of trading. The market transaction obviously weakens; Near the weekend, with the zinc price once again, the downstream market inquiry procurement demand has picked up, traders trading weak downstream real consumption slightly warming, market trading is high on both sides of the low, this week's overall trading volume increased compared with last week.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1909 contract discount 40-30 yuan / ton, Guangdong stock market than Shanghai market narrowed from 140yuan / ton discount on Friday to around 120yuan / ton discount. This week the zinc price basically maintains the platform arrangement, the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is abundant. The carrier is mainly shipping this week, and the quotation within the week is mainly focused on the 09 contract discount 40-50 yuan / ton, but the consignee is willing to float 10 yuan / ton to receive the goods under the quotation, and the trading between the traders is slightly deadlocked. Superimposed this week more long orders due, some traders temporarily hold steady Guangdong market spot rise paste water; for downstream, this week Guangdong more die-casting zinc alloy enterprises terminal orders again poor, downstream capital pressure is greater, more willing to reduce production behavior to deal with the off-season, the willingness to receive goods is not good. Overall, traders this week trading slightly divided, downstream transaction volume is relatively light, the overall transaction situation is worse than last week.

This week, Tianjin 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1908 contract water 40 80 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than the Shanghai market last week discount 30 yuan / ton narrowed to 20 yuan / ton discount. Within a week, the zinc price platform is sorted out, the smelter is shipped normally, and the market supply is more abundant. The price quoted by the holder this week fell from 60 to 110 yuan per ton for the 08 contract on Monday to 40 to 80 yuan per ton for the 08 contract on Friday, in which the high-priced brand has more circulation, but the market demand is mostly concentrated on the low-priced brand ordinary source of goods, so the decline in the high-priced brand zinc ingot is more obvious. This week, the downstream to maintain rigid demand to buy, although the terminal order into the off-season, but basically stable, there has been no obvious downward trend in recent weeks, the transaction brand this week focused on the low price of ordinary goods, superimposed Friday zinc prices down, and near the weekend, there is a rigid demand to buy and weekend reserves still contributed to a certain amount of consumption, the transaction situation in Tianjin this week is slightly better than last week.

Tin: due to the rise in the center of gravity of the US dollar index, the maintenance of weak and volatile crude oil prices, and the high inventory of LME tin, the Lunxi electronic disk maintained the pattern of pressure shock this week, blocking the upper US $17950. Even if there was a low recovery on Wednesday, it was difficult to break through this resistance. Subsequently, the trend of Lunxi showed a negative trend again, wiping out the gains of nearly half of Wednesday, falling US $17500 per ton within the week, and showing a small negative line at the weekly level. Below all EMA, it fell 0.14% this week, with a turnover of 1876, an increase of 113, and a position of 17020, an increase of 24. 4%. The deviation from the bottom of the weekly MACD index has not been effectively mitigated and is awaiting guidance from the Fed's interest rate decision next week.

This week, the long and short forces intertwined with the Shanghai tin main 1909 contract to maintain a concussion situation as a whole. On Wednesday, due to the suppression of short positions, it fell sharply by more than 2000 yuan per ton, falling to a low of 130760 yuan per ton in the week, and then the bulls entered the market and the short positions left the game. Shanghai tin rapid reverse pumping returned to the horizontal range again. In the near future, the trend of the main 1909 contract of Shanghai tin futures is triangular, and there is a possibility of breaking the position in the short term. The interest rate resolution announced by the Federal Reserve next week and the trade negotiations between China and the United States in Shanghai may have a certain impact on the trend of Shanghai tin futures. Friday's Shanghai tin closing price was 135300 yuan / ton, up 350 yuan / ton from Friday's closing price, up 0.26 per cent a week. In the week, the trading volume increased by 24716 hands, and the position volume increased by 24716 hands, while the position volume decreased by 1108 hands.

The main 1909 contract in Shanghai this week maintained a volatile situation, falling rapidly to a low of 130760 yuan per ton on Wednesday, and then the rapid reverse pumping returned to the horizontal range again. This week, spot prices in Shanghai and tin fluctuated up and down with the disk, the discount has not changed significantly, the trading atmosphere within the week as a whole maintained a weak state, downstream enterprises only rigid demand replenishment. When the tin plate in Shanghai fell sharply on Wednesday, set traders and downstream enterprises actively purchased at low prices, and the rising water range of the supply of sets was 500 to 1500 yuan / ton, but after the rapid reverse pumping of tin plate in Shanghai, the trading atmosphere in the spot market returned to mediocrity again. Friday mainstream trading price is 135000 to 136500 yuan / ton, all rising water performance high fall, set Yunxi rising water 1000 to 1200 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi rising water 600 to 800 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 300 to 500 yuan / ton.

Nickel: after a series of strong gains last week, there has been a sharp correction in nickel prices at home and abroad this week. Nickel fell 2.8 per cent on Monday, falling $14200 a tonne since $14650 a tonne. After a brief shock on Wednesday, it tumbled 3.44 per cent again on Thursday, falling below its 5-10-day moving average of $13930 a tonne. It was repeatedly tested around the $14000 / tonne barrier a week later. As of 16: 00 on Friday, nickel positions increased by more than 5, 000 to 288000 hands a week, trading volume fell 40000 hands to 42000 hands, and short positions gradually returned.

Shanghai nickel main 1910 contract 5 Yin, Monday fell more than 4%, since around 117000, directly below the 5-day moving average; after two days, Thursday fell more than 2%, piercing the 5-day moving average, breaking the 10-day moving average, down 110000 yuan / ton barrier, Friday pressure 5-10 EMA cross resistance level 112000 yuan / ton mark. As of today's close, Shanghai Ni 1910 contract week fell more than 6.07%, down 7190 yuan / ton from last week, the main weekly position increased by 46000 hands to 336000 hands, trading volume increased by 3.612 million hands to 6.343 million hands, Shanghai Ni Index increased weekly positions by more than 68500 hands, short positions vigorously increased to return to the dominant market.

Spot market, this week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract since Monday discount 350 yuan / ton continue to narrow, Friday base this newspaper discount 1908 yuan / ton or so. Russian nickel holders have a strong willingness to raise water, one is to predict that the current import loss is relatively large, the later inflow into the market is not much, and the other is that the willingness to ship at a loss near the cost line is not strong. Nickel prices continue to pull back this week, the first half of the week nickel prices although high pullback, but the emotional stimulus for the downstream is limited, the downstream is relatively pessimistic for the future market, only part of the downstream with a discount of 400 yuan / ton in 112500 yuan / ton around a small amount of goods. Nickel prices continued to decline in the second half of the week, in the vicinity of 110000 discount 300yuan / ton concentrated transaction is obvious, steel mills into the market replenishment, compared with the first half of the week improved. Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract rose 1400 yuan / ton on Monday, continues to expand to 1900 yuan / ton, Jinchuan maintenance affects part of the output in the past two months, the source of goods is a little tight, traders are relatively active to replenish the warehouse, Jinchuan Shengshui 1200 to 1400 yuan / ton, traders favor replenishment, Jinchuan Shengshui is still optimistic. Jinchuan downstream also in the second half of the week around 110000 to enter the market procurement is better than other periods. It is expected that the spot situation will be stable next week, Russia and nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 or discount water 1908 yuan / ton to discount 100 yuan / ton, Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract water 1700 to 2100 yuan / ton.

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