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[SMM Review] non-ferrous metals show a strong performance of aluminum and lead.
Jul 26,2019 10:06CST
translation
Source:SMM
In early trading this morning, non-ferrous metals were mixed, with Shanghai Aluminium up 0.76% at 13950 and Shanghai lead up 0.99% at 16850. Shanghai lead is further strengthened by the external disk. The black line rebounded after falling yesterday, with the market stronger and iron ore up nearly 2 per cent. (unit: yuan / ton)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 26 news: early this morning, non-ferrous metals mixed, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.76% to 13950, Shanghai lead rose 0. 99% to 16850. Shanghai lead is further strengthened by the external disk. The black line rebounded after falling yesterday, with the market stronger and iron ore up nearly 2 per cent. (unit: yuan / ton)

China and the United States will meet in Shanghai from July 30 to 31 to begin the 12th round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States on the basis of equality and mutual respect, a spokesman for China's Ministry of Commerce said Friday.

Overnight, the ECB left the three major interest rates unchanged and adjusted its forward-looking guidelines, which are expected to remain unchanged or lower until at least the first half of 2020; a highly loose monetary policy position is required for a considerable period of time, if necessary, interest rates will remain at current or lower levels. Mr Draghi said the ECB had not discussed the extent of potential interest rate cuts; inflation was expected to pick up by the end of the year, which would take longer than expected; and a third round of targeted long-term refinancing, (TLTRO), would help protect a favourable lending environment.

Recently, the major copper mining companies around the world have released their output reports for the second quarter of this year. Overall, the copper output of the eight major global mining companies fell 5.2% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period last year, and the total copper production fell 4.8% in the first half of the year. The rise in the interference rate of superimposed multiple mining areas can to some extent reflect the tension at the global mining end. View details. "

Copper, the spot market transactions are very poor, several areas of spot rise paste water shows a concussion trend. Scrap copper market transactions are light, the market waiting for the third batch of import approval.

Aluminum, alumina production flexibility, the current price below the space is limited, but the overall supply exceeds demand, the uplink is also weak, the second half of the concussion market. Aluminum prices short-term impulse can not be enough, yesterday's small decline in inventory mainly due to the reduction in arrival, there may be some in-transit inventory.

In terms of lead, the improvement of Sino-US economic and trade relations is expected to be positive, and the macro side is optimistic; the upward trend of lead is smooth, and stocks have dropped by nearly 5,000 tons this week; we are concerned about the impact of high-temperature industrial power restrictions on battery plants.

As for zinc, the whole is in the process of transferring overcapacity at the mine end to refined zinc. SMM expects that with the continuous increase of refinery supply in the short term, the zinc price may be further pressed in the future. If the zinc price continues to fall to the low level of 19000 yuan / ton in the early period, and further erodes the mine profit, the willingness of the domestic mine to reduce the processing fee may be strengthened. View details. "

Nickel, stainless steel terminal procurement is not good, traders believe that the price is inflated, the current wait-and-see more. In the short term, the disk is still the dominant factor in the capital level.

Black system, iron ore port warehouse rough decline this week, inventory accumulation still needs to be repeated; yesterday spot transactions in 855-865, steel mills overall inventory low, there is a replenishment of rigid demand, prices lower after the transaction is good. Finished product end: the current steel consumption off-season, inventory normal accumulation, but the cumulative range slows down. In the future, we need to pay attention to the downstream replenishment and the trend of environmental protection and production restrictions in August. When the overall profit is not high, the industry is not pessimistic.

On the crude side, last-term oil fell 0.23 percent to 440.5 yuan a tonne, supported by continued production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and its allies. U. S. crude oil prices have fluctuated in a range of $55 to $60 over the past month, but concerns about demand have limited price gains.

Us crude stocks fell 10.835 million barrels to 445.041 million barrels in the week ended July 19, well above market expectations of 4 million barrels, according to the EIA report. Us gasoline stocks fell 226000 barrels to 232.526 million barrels in the week ended July 19, after analysts had expected a drop of 730000 barrels.

The fall in production in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Tropical Storm Barry has had an impact on recent inventory data, but many analysts believe the continued decline in inventories has helped ease concerns about oversupply.

Technical analysis:

Copper: last night, mainly due to the Ministry of Commerce announced that China and the United States will hold the 12th round of high-level consultations, Shanghai copper opened high in the evening, and then the United States released better-than-expected durable goods order data, the US index continued to remain high, putting pressure on copper prices. The ECB left three major interest rates unchanged last night, but adjusted its forward-looking guidelines and is expected to keep current key interest rates unchanged or lower until at least the first half of 2020. At the macro level as a whole, the upward momentum of copper prices has been weakened as a whole. In terms of crude oil, demand is weakening in the macro environment, which makes oil prices rise and fall, which is bad for non-ferrous oil. Today, Shanghai copper closed the physical Dayin column, down to explore the Brin middle rail and the 20-day moving average, the MACD index is weak, the technical side of the lack of upward guidance on copper prices. Spot due to the recent end of the basic delivery of long orders, and the end of the month enterprises need to do settlement, the market turned light, next month the pace of low tickets will drive the market to slightly lower the quotation. It is estimated that today's London copper 5950 to 6000 yuan / ton, Shanghai copper 46800 to 47100 yuan / ton, spot flat water-liter water 60 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum prices have been stable and rose slightly in the evening, but have not yet fully recovered all the declines since Monday. The main company is expected to run between 13830 and 13930 yuan per ton for the 1909 contract day, while Lun Aluminum is running between 1805 and 1855 US dollars per ton today.

Zinc: overnight zinc received a bald small negative line, above the 40-day EMA suppression is still strong, within-day LME zinc inventory decline less than expected, Lun zinc or bias interval finishing, intra-day action can still be considered, the operating range may be about $2400 to $2450 / ton. Overnight, Shanghai zinc recorded a negative line, jumped off the middle track of Bolin Road as a whole, Shanghai zinc returned to the 10-day moving average platform finishing operation, the off-season effect of market consumption is significant, the domestic social inventory increase is expected to still exist, or run in the range of 19000 to 19500 yuan / ton within a day. Material 0 # domestic double swallow zinc pair increased by 50% to 90% in August.

Lead: recently, the amount of lead positions has continued to rise, and the characteristics of soft positions have been gradually reflected. Now we are concerned about the change of lme lead 0-3 liter discount. Shanghai lead closely follow the trend of lead, in the near future to judge the rhythm of the trend of lead in Shanghai, the trend of lead is the core logic.

Nickel: nickel closed at the mid-negative line, fell below the 5-10-day moving average, down the $14000 / ton mark, above the 5-10-day moving average cross resistance, today focused on whether the nickel can be stable above the $14000 / ton level. Shanghai nickel is concerned today about whether it can hold the 110000 yuan / ton gate. Spot price range 112000-114000 yuan / ton.

Tin: support below Lunxi is expected to be around the previous low of $17500 per tonne. It is estimated that the resistance above the short-term Shanghai tin is around 136000 yuan / ton, and the lower support is around 134000 yuan / ton, waiting for the direction of Shanghai tin in the near future. Spot market, Shanghai tin main 1909 contract last night to maintain a stable center of gravity, is expected to today's mainstream trading price of 135000 to 136500 yuan / ton.

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