SMM, July 19 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-
This week, the market in the global interest rate expectations, the dollar rose and fell back, domestic half-year economic data showed that the economy is stable, bulls strong into the market, basic metals in the capital-driven red, SMMI rose 2.63% per week. Among them, nickel has shown a bright performance for the second week in a row, with nickel hitting a record high of US $15000 per ton in Shanghai, and reaching the all-time high of 120000 yuan per ton in Shanghai. At one point in the week, it reached the limit, again forming an increase of 10 per cent next week. Spot Jinchuan nickel rose in the context of smelting and maintenance in the same period, and SMMI.Ni rose 14.33 per cent a week. The second variety favored by funds is lead, which is strong in a row, breaking through US $2000, rising US $2070 per ton, and rising as much as 4.6 per cent in Shanghai. Shanghai lead followed the rise to break through the original concussion box range, breakthrough station 16500 yuan / ton blocked around 16700 yuan, the weekly increase of 3.5 per cent, spot lead fear of high sentiment, the holder is eager to cash on the high, expand the discount, SMMI.Pb weekly rise 2.65 per cent. Zinc followed, with a US $2500 / ton zinc station. The Shanghai zinc short position left the market in a hurry, the center of gravity moved up to 19600 yuan / ton, and the spot water rose by about 70 yuan / ton. SMMI.Zn rose 2.5 per cent per week. London copper stood at $6000 / ton, up $6100 / ton, Lun copper rose 2.2 per cent per week, Shanghai copper hovered at 47000 yuan line, rushed up 48000yuan/ tons, but fear of high sentiment hindered spot trading, holders in order to cash in discount trading, SMMI.Cu weekly up 2.14 per cent. Lun aluminum strong straight above $1850, although Shanghai aluminum rose, but blocked the four hurdles, the operating fluctuation range narrowed, spot discount 20 yuan / ton, SMMI.Al weekly up 1.46%. Within the week, only tin is still weak and difficult to change, has not been associated with other metals, is still out of the pressure situation, SMMI.Sn weekly decline of 0.18%. The rally fully demonstrates the role of capital, need to be alert to these favored items have initially shown signs of overbuying, next week need to pay attention to these huge increases in positions this week, risk appetite is already high.
Copper: Lun Copper jumped low this week. Affected mainly by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations this week, the market waited for the Fed to release further interest rate cut signals at the beginning of the week, and then released strong and better-than-expected US retail sales data for June, lowering the market's forecast for a rate cut. The dollar rallied 97.4, and superimposed the recent fall in the price of crude oil, which suppressed copper prices and lowered the price of copper by $5927.5 / ton. from Monday to Thursday, the center of gravity was basically stable at $5980 per ton. Blocked by the $6000 round mark. Until Friday, as the chairman of the New York Federal Reserve pushed interest rate expectations further, superimposed the recent improvement in European data, the situation of Britain's hard Brexit was alleviated, the pound rebounded and weakened the market's preference for the safe-haven dollar, which fell 97% below the barrier to a low of 96.6, causing the base metals to turn red across the board. In addition to the warm macro mood, this week the CSPT group signed the third quarter copper concentrate TC floor price around 55 US dollars / ton, the market worries about the raw material side further increased, positive mood strongly pushed copper prices higher, Lun Copper was pushed up to 6102.5 US dollars / ton on Friday, a one-day increase of 2%, daily K line broke Brin on track, and the center of gravity recovered all recent averages, technical indicators improved. Lun Copper rose 2.2 per cent in the week, dominated by short positions, with positions falling by 15332 to 291000.
Shanghai copper performance this week first suppressed and then rose, early in the week also hovered in the interval concussion pattern, there was a breakthrough surge on Friday. At the beginning of the week, all kinds of domestic data for the first half of the year were released, showing a bright performance and stable economy. Copper prices rose 47280 yuan / ton from a low of 46530 yuan / ton, but the 47000 barrier failed to maintain stability. After the good news was digested, copper prices gave up some of their increases and fell slightly. Until Friday, amid the general rise in the basic metals, the price of bullish copper rushed up rapidly, and at the beginning of morning trading quickly rose to a high of 47920 yuan per ton. Accelerated in the afternoon has climbed to 48040 yuan / ton, the main one-day 1909 contract positions increased by nearly 55000 hands, an increase of 2.5 per cent. The weekly position of the main contract has increased by more than 60, 000 hands, and the bulls have led to a strong increase in positions. The center of gravity of the Shanghai Copper Day K line has also been tested on the track to Brin. The red energy column of the MACD index has been obviously elongated, and the situation of the dead fork of the KDJ index has been cracked.
On the spot side, on Monday this week, facing the contract for monthly delivery, the market began to quote the 1909 contract, starting from Pingshui-Shengshui 80 yuan / ton, attracting the attention of the market, the market inquiry atmosphere is active, the receipt is positive and concentrated, the overall transaction atmosphere can still be below, led to the mood of raising the price of the holder, the quotation was raised to 30-80 yuan / ton, with the higher level of the plate and the firmness of the rising water, the market began to show a stalemate pattern. After two consecutive days of sawing until a week later, with the further cautious stop of downstream consumption, traders' willingness to buy and sell is also correspondingly blocked, and trade buying is also stagnant. Some holders are forced to relax and lower their quotations after considering that the supply of goods in their hands is difficult to digest quickly. And due to the sharp rise of nearly 1,000 yuan on Friday, there is a discount supply in the market. The price is quoted to 20 yuan / ton-70 yuan / ton of water, in order to attract trade to receive goods. But fear of high sentiment spread, the deal is more difficult.
Aluminum: this week Lun aluminum trend is stronger, recorded five Lianyang. Monday Lunlun aluminum opened at $1823.5 / ton, the opening shock operation low hit a week low of $1822.5 / ton, after the aluminum quickly rose above the 5-day moving average, closed at the highest point, recorded Dayang. From Tuesday to Friday, on the one hand, the center of gravity of Lun Aluminum kept moving up with the 5-day moving average, always closing above the 5-day moving average; on the other hand, in the absence of sudden good news stimulus, there was great pressure above $1855 per tonne. During the period, Lun Aluminum reached a high of $1857 per ton on Thursday, but never saw a substantial breakthrough, which narrowed the operating range and accumulated impulse energy. Lun Aluminum was trading at $1854.5 a tonne as of 15:15 on Friday, continuing to try to make an upward breakthrough. On the holding, as of Thursday, Lunlun aluminum positions reduced by 17771 hands to 688897 hands. Lun Aluminum is back above the 5-day moving average, poised to pay attention to US and European economic data from Tuesday to Thursday. In the atmosphere of interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States, if the US finger weakens, Lun Aluminum is likely to break through the existing pressure level and continue to push up.
This week Shanghai aluminum main company changed to 1909 contract, its week maintains the concussion upward. Shanghai aluminum opened at 13790 yuan / ton on Monday, only after the opening of the bulls briefly left the market hit a week low of 13780 yuan / ton, after the social aluminum ingot inventory data released only an increase of 1000 tons, consumption performance is not obvious, coupled with the external market led to a rapid rebound, Monday and Tuesday recorded Erlianyang. Wednesday, Thursday short relative high active entry pressure, Shanghai aluminum are only slightly down, recording a longer shadow line. At the same time, due to Thursday's announcement that the aluminum ingot inventory was flat and could not confirm the market expectation of weaker consumption, on Friday, driven by the weakness of the US Index and the floating red of the outer plate and surrounding colored varieties, bulls took the initiative to enter the Shanghai aluminum rally as high as 13975 yuan / ton at one point, reaching the 60-day moving average near the 60-day moving average, closing at 13935 yuan / ton, standing above the 5-10-20 moving average. Weekly position increased by 50826 hands to 246114 hands, mainly long position increase, and contains part of the position transfer position. Zhou du Shanghai Aluminum Index positions increased by 38062 hands to 704768 hands, mainly long positions, of which the number of positions increased by 20306 on Friday. The short-term fundamentals have not changed. On the one hand, the domestic aluminum consumption is expected to become weaker from July to August, and at the same time, the prices of electricity and alumina still have room to fall, making the electrolytic aluminum cost move downwards; on the other hand, the enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum production is lower, the start-up month-on-month ratio is basically the same, the output has not increased significantly, and the increase of social aluminum ingot inventory is small, and the consumption is weak. It has to be said that the strength of the external market, as well as the strong performance of the surrounding non-ferrous varieties also have a short-term boost to Shanghai Aluminum. Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to maintain interval volatility next week, the center of gravity will move up, there is a short-term touch of 14000 yuan / ton gate, however, in the short-term lack of fundamental support, only long-term consumption is expected, especially if the increase in social aluminum ingot inventory, Shanghai aluminum will also have a significant decline.
Early this week in East China and near the weekend preference, the other days of the transaction is flat. The spot price in Shanghai is between 13800 and 13920 yuan / ton, and between 20 yuan / ton and flat water. The average weekly price is nearly 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. The transaction price in Wuxi is between 13800 and 13920 yuan / ton, and the transaction price in Hangzhou is between 13830 and 13940 yuan / ton. This week, a large household to maintain the daily purchase rhythm of thousands of tons, to enhance the heat of transactions in the East China market. As the spot aluminum price rises day by day, the holder under the high price shipment is very active, the market presents the more and less situation, but at the same time because some middlemen are not optimistic about the future market, with the aluminum price rising, also began to pick up spot futures, traders as a whole more active trading. However, the downstream transaction this week is average, the receipt of goods is flat, at the beginning of the week due to the expected expansion of the discount after the month, the day of replenishment is less, with the subsequent rise in aluminum prices, fear of high sentiment began to highlight, basic on-demand procurement-based, near the weekend there is no significant stock situation.
Lead: this week, Lun lead continued a strong trend and returned to the top of the US $2000 mark, leading to the rise of funds in the factors leading to the strength of Lun lead. That tracing back to the source is the subject matter of hype. LME lead low inventory as the premise, the Gaoria lead refinery maintenance as the fuse, a brief review of the trend of Lun lead this week, at the beginning of the week, Lun lead appeared strong throwing pressure when it touched US $2000, but the main capital withstood the throwing pressure. Running in a narrow range of US $1980, a few days later, the Gaolia lead Refinery began to overhaul, affecting production of more than 10, 000 tons. The market hyped the market again. Lun lead strengthened for three days in a row, breaking the suppression of 60 lines at the weekly level. At one point, it reached 2070 US dollars per ton, brushing the highest level in the last three and a half months. Market buying sentiment was high. By 14: 00 on Friday, Lun lead was reported at 2055 US dollars / ton, up 4.6% per week. It rose 9.22% in two weeks. Macro data are less released next week, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still gives a more dovish speech. At the same time, Europe can pay attention to the initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in July (the previous value is 47.6 and expected 47.8). Although the expected value is better than the previous value, when it is still below the boom-bust line, the eurozone manufacturing industry has not seen any improvement yet. This also makes the market begin to look forward to whether there will be new fiscal and monetary policies under the replacement of the EU president, so as to boost the economy of the European Union. In addition to macro data, the progress of Sino-US trade and the situation in the United States and Iraq need to be paid attention to. However, judging from the recent market public opinion, we have not seen any obvious improvement yet. That returns to the trend of Lun lead. The technical averages are arranged in a long line, and the market sentiment is high. Emotional or continue to promote the rise of lead, but at the same time, 2000 to 2100 range belongs to the chip-intensive trading area, the pressure of short-term material stability is greater, so next week lead or slow down the upward speed, the probability of concussion in the high range is greater. The operating range is expected to be $2000 to $2100 per ton next week.
This week, Shanghai lead closed for 4 Lianyang, driven by lead in London, and successfully broke through the top of the shock box for 2 months, while the current rise in domestic lead prices is completely dependent on the pull of funds. In a brief review of the trend of lead in Shanghai this week, at the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead briefly consolidated one day after concussion upward, successfully breaking through the suppression of the moving average, and the start of the market at the beginning of the week was driven by the closing of short positions, and the Shanghai lead index reduced its position by more than 7400 hands on two days. The short position closing logic or funds are worried about the sustainability of the strength of the lead. In the next few days, the bulls first resisted the selling pressure of 16300 yuan, and then launched a premeditated offensive to promote the increase for two consecutive days. During this period, it touched as high as 16725 yuan / ton, refreshing the highest level since March, but was later pressed at the weekly 40-day moving average and the integer gate. 16700 yuan, Shanghai lead gave up a small increase, and finally reported at 16675 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 3.54%. The position of Shanghai lead 1909 increased by 24590 to 65842, and the Shanghai lead index increased by 8334 to 105452. From the analysis of the fundamentals of lead, the balance between supply and demand of lead in July is further aggravated, the spot discount of lead ingots in the circulation market is expanded to 100 yuan / ton, and the primary price difference of regeneration is expanded to 300 yuan / ton. All the indicators point to pessimistic expectations, so it is difficult for us to support the continuous rise of lead prices. On the technical side, the daily volatility of lead price is magnified, the box platform is successfully broken through, and the averages of each road begin to turn upward, so there is a strong driving force for technical lead. In addition, due to the recent increase in the sensitivity of domestic lead prices to Lun lead, we can not ignore the guidance of the trend of the external market. Combined with the analysis of fundamentals and technical aspects at home and abroad, we think that next week Shanghai lead or follow the upward rhythm of Lun lead. The probability of concussion in the range after pushing up is greater; the expected range is 16450 US $16900 / ton.
This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is 16000 to 16575 yuan per ton. Spot lead prices rose this week, due to the downturn in terminal consumption, fear of high and cautious mining, market transactions are bleak; primary lead, refineries follow the pace of lead prices, actively adjust discount shipments, as of Friday, refinery bulk order mainstream quotations for SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton discount. Trade market holders are also actively quoting and shipping, but because the spot absolute price is higher, the transaction situation is extremely depressed, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead ordinary brand to 1908 contract discount 50 yuan / ton to Pingshui; In terms of recycled lead, with the fluctuation of lead prices, refineries' production profits have been repaired. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled refined lead on the SMM1# lead average price discount 200 yuan / ton to the discount 300 yuan / ton factory, individual enterprises discount 350 yuan / ton factory.
Zinc: this week, zinc concussion upward 3 Lianyang test 40-day moving average, the upper suppression of strong temporary no effective breakthrough. At the beginning of the week, the Fed, the leader of the macro economy, did not lower its interest rate expectations, and all non-ferrous metals had upward momentum. At the same time, with the approach of the centralized delivery date, the Lme zinc inventory continued to decline and the back expanded. With the support of the fundamentals, the Len Zinc warehouse reduction went up through the 10-and 20-day EMA, and was blocked in the 40-day EMA. After the centralized delivery was smooth and excessive, the back narrowed again and turned to the short-term supply and demand side of contango, without contradictory support. After rising US $2500 / ton integer barrier and 40-day moving average double suppression is more difficult to break through, Lun Zinc negative decline, the performance of non-ferrous metals slightly weak, but Friday non-ferrous metals generally pulled up, Lun Zinc again tested the 40-day moving average. As of Friday, trading volume was down 12277 to 38702 and positions were down 3047 to 247000.
This week, Shanghai zinc main 1909 contract reduction position upward, passive with the external market, the domestic fundamentals are still lack of positive support. At the beginning of the week, boosted by the trend of the external market, due to the impact of the refinery maintenance cycle on the pace of goods, the social inventory fell beyond expectations, and the domestic short selling confidence dropped temporarily. The center of gravity of the Shanghai zinc stepped up operation moved up to 19600 yuan / ton, and recorded a high level of 19645 yuan per ton in the week. However, it was close to the 40-day moving average. Strong pressure, coupled with the high level of the outer disk also blocked. Shanghai zinc main warehouse down back to the upper level of 19400 yuan / ton near finishing, below 20, 5 days EMA to form a support, Friday again tested 40-day EMA. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index fell 40598 hands to 3.076 million hands, and positions fell 35868 hands to 518000 hands.
This week, the 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1908 contract in Shanghai market is stable at about 60 yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong self-rising water is about 50 yuan / ton, and the imported SMC, AZ and India maintain a discount of 60 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton for 0 # domestic zinc. The contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1908 in Shanghai market is about 60 yuan / ton, about 80 yuan / ton, 60 yuan / ton and 30 yuan / ton, respectively.
This week accompanied by the return of zinc, consumer off-season enterprise orders weakened, no price to stimulate the downstream subjective purchasing enthusiasm to decline, maintain the rigid demand procurement state, the actual consumption contributed less to the transaction. At the beginning of the week, due to the expiration of the first batch of long orders within the month, and the second batch of long orders will also expire next Monday, and the zinc price is low and high, traders are more active to make up the order on the basis of the average price of the net, and the quotation of rising paste water is stable at about 60 to 80 yuan / ton in the week. Near the weekend, due to the problem of transfer of ownership in the third-party warehouse, the market offer is divided, but the replenishment of the long order is nearing the end. The market quotation is still in the range fluctuation, the performance is stable. This week traders contributed to the main transaction, the overall transaction slightly less than last week.
This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1909 contract discount 70-50 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market expanded from 1909 yuan / ton discount on Friday to around 140yuan / ton discount. Within this week, zinc prices rose, refineries actively shipped, the circulation of goods in the market was relatively abundant, and most of the cargoes were shipped, and the spot rising water in the market fell rapidly, from a discount of 40 yuan per ton to a discount of 80 yuan per ton on Monday to a discount of 80 yuan per ton on Friday. The main reason is that the zinc price enters the upward channel, and when the main contract price falls to 19000 yuan / ton in the early stage, there is a slight reserve for the lower reaches, which is overdrawn for consumption this week; the off-season effect of orders of die-casting zinc alloy enterprises in South China is becoming more and more significant, and the downstream orders continue to deteriorate, and the willingness to receive goods becomes lighter. On the whole, the main trading in Guangdong this week is contributed by traders, but because the delivery and receiving providers are still divided and superimposed upward, the trading situation of traders this week is not as good as last week, and the transaction volume downstream has weakened again, and the overall transaction volume is worse than that of last week.
This week, Tianjin 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1908 contract water 20 to 60 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai market from 1908 yuan / ton last week to 30 yuan / ton discount. Within a week, zinc prices stopped falling and rising, refineries actively shipped, the market delivery is increasing, significantly more abundant than last week. The holder is actively shipping within the week, but the transaction is weak, resulting in a continuous decline in spot water supply. Since the Tianjin market quotation on Monday focused on 90 yuan per ton of water for the Shanghai zinc 1908 contract, it fell to about 20 yuan per ton for the 1908 contract on Friday. Under the condition of abundant circulation of goods in the market, most of the downstream are cautious and wait-and-see, and are still more bearish on the price. During the period when the zinc price fell to 19000 yuan / ton in the previous period, the buying volume downstream still has a certain overdraft for subsequent consumption. Superimposed downstream is mostly galvanizing plants, into July, orders continued light, so downstream did not make more contribution to consumption, Tianjin market transactions this week compared with last week again.
Tin: this week, the Lunxi electronic disk showed a general trend of suppression and then rise, and the center of gravity moved down obviously. At the beginning of the week, due to the rise in the dollar index and the fall in crude oil prices, Lunxi fell under pressure. Subsequently, crude oil prices and the dollar index both fell, Lunxi weak and stable to maintain low consolidation, although the attempt to fall below the low point at the beginning of the week, but the decline in the dollar index to some extent support the trend of Lunxi prices, Lunxi failed to move down, a small rally on Friday. This week, the center of gravity of Lunxi moved down obviously, the level of the weekly line decreased, and the solid part was located below all the EMA. Weekly decline of 1.07%, trading volume of 1410 hands, a decrease of 218 hands, position of 16676 hands, an increase of 172 hands. From the technical form, the circumferential level MACD index appears the bottom deviation form, Lunxi short-term existence of technical callback.
This week, Shanghai tin overall maintained a low consolidation, the center of gravity moved up slightly. Due to the influence of short forces, after being suppressed by short positions and falling in the form of negative lines at the beginning of the week, short position closing profit-taking pushed up the price of tin plates in Shanghai by more than 1500 yuan per ton. Subsequently, due to the interweaving of multi-empty forces, the Shanghai tin overall maintained the concussion pattern, the center of gravity moved up slightly. The pattern of fluctuation in the range around 132000 to 137500 yuan / ton remained unchanged this week. Friday's closing price of Shanghai tin was 134950 yuan / ton, up 290 yuan, or 0.22 per cent, from Friday's closing price. In the week, the trading volume decreased by 47874 hands to 105000 hands, and the position volume decreased by 3956 hands to 28342 hands.
This week, the Shanghai tin market maintained at 132000 to 137500 yuan / ton range volatility, Shanghai tin spot prices fluctuated up and down with the disk. Some arbitrageurs bought a small amount of tin ingots when the price of tin plates rose in Shanghai. On the demand side of downstream enterprises, only a small number of enterprises have a weak supply of rigid demand. This week Shanghai tin spot market transaction atmosphere is general. On Friday, the mainstream trading price in the Shanghai-tin spot market was 135000-137000 yuan / ton in the morning, and fluctuated to 135000-136000 yuan / ton in the afternoon. Spot premium, rising water range due to weak demand has not changed significantly, Friday set cloud tin rising water 1100 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud character rising water 1000 to 700 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 600 to 400 yuan / ton.
Nickel: nickel prices have continued to rise strongly this week. Nickel stood above multiple averages during the week, moving up the track along Brin, continuing its upward trend, breaking through the $14000 / tonne and $15000 / tonne barrier since the opening of $13540 / tonne on Monday. On Thursday, it rose nearly 4 per cent to $15115 / tonne, the highest level since July 2018. Lun Ni has 13 Lianyang, since last week rose nearly 9%, this week to continue to work hard, the biggest weekly increase of more than 10%, within the week position increase is broken, bulls completely dominate the market.
Shanghai nickel followed the trend of nickel rally, strong gains and capital inflows are maintained in the first place. Shanghai nickel main 1910 contract rose 5 days, driven by bulls continued to increase positions, since the opening of the 104500 yuan / ton line on Monday, with a bright increase in positions and trading volume, breaking through the previous high level one after another, breaking through the 110000 yuan / ton mark on Wednesday, up more than 5% on Thursday, and touching the trading limit at one point in intraday trading. As of Friday, shanghai nickel 1910 rose 119240 yuan per ton, targeting an all-time high of 120000 yuan, up nearly 4%, and trading volume exceeded 1 million on Friday. Shanghai nickel index rose nearly 14% this week, trading volume has reached more than 10 million hands, strong bulls led by has shown overbought situation.
Spot market, this week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract since Monday discount 1908 yuan / ton continue to narrow, Friday base this newspaper discount is about 300 yuan / ton. Nickel prices rose step by step this week, Russian nickel sticker is still narrowed mainly due to the first half of the week steel mills in the 108000 yuan / ton position into the market procurement, a considerable amount, the first half of the overall trading improvement. Prices rose sharply in the second half of the week, basically close to historical highs, downstream procurement sentiment receded, more in the wait-and-see, buy Xing is not strong. Second, downstream actively seek other alternative raw materials, reduce costs, demand continues to weaken. However, the Russian-nickel discount maintained around 300 yuan per ton, first, due to a substantial loss in imports, the holder expected that the source of imports in the later period was limited; second, it was close to the cost position and did not want to ship at a loss, so the holder had a strong willingness to lift the water. Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract rose 1000 yuan / ton on Monday, the first half of the week basically maintained at 1000 yuan / ton, the second half of the week gradually increased to Friday to 1350 yuan / ton, this week the downstream is basically wait-and-see, only rigid demand for goods. In the first half of the week, after Jinchuan rose to maintain stability, some traders entered the market to purchase, but the rhythm was cautious, at the same time, the overall supply of Jinchuan was tight, raising the rising water to a certain extent. It is expected that the spot situation will be stable next week, Russia and nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 or discount water 400 yuan / ton to discount 200 yuan / ton, Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract water 1 300 1 700 yuan / ton.
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