[2019.7.19 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] the influx of funds into the nickel market continues to push up the industrial chain as a whole

Macroscopically: in the early hours of the morning, New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams said in a statement that "when you only have so much stimulus on hand, it is worthwhile to act quickly to lower interest rates at the first sign of a recession." The US index fell briefly, or on heightened expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Yesterday, the public value of the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 21.6, slightly higher than the previous value, but the four-week average changed little. On the crude side, U.S. crude oil both fell more than 1% as crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will rise after last week's hurricane. Today, we focus on the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in July.

Electrolytic nickel: according to SMM investigation, due to the recent deterioration of nickel sulfate market, a smelter in Guangxi basically suspended the production of nickel sulfate and turned to electrolytic nickel. As of today, electrolytic nickel plate has been successfully produced, expected to reach 600 to 800 tons in July and about 1000 tons in August.

Nickel pig iron: on Thursday, according to SMM research, a southern steel mill this week high nickel iron purchase price of 1080 to 1090 yuan / nickel point, to the plant including tax, up from the transaction price of 980 to 1000 yuan / nickel point last week, delivery will be from the end of August to mid-September.

Nickel sulfate: after the nickel price continued to break through the upper platform this week, the nickel sulfate plant could not accept the further expansion of the loss, actively raising the quotation to 24000 to 25000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction was 24000 to 24500 yuan / ton, up about 1500 yuan / ton from the mainstream last week.

Stainless steel: as of yesterday, the daily guide price of Wuxi Taigang has been raised by 200 yuan / ton for 4 consecutive days, 304th NO.1 quoted at 15600 yuan / ton, 304 / 2B quoted at 15400 yuan / ton, and 304 medium board quoted at 16650 yuan / ton. Stainless steel plant guidance price has been raised, agent quotation has also increased, but the agent said that the actual transaction is weak.

In terms of inventories, nickel stocks were 148200 tons on 18 July, a decrease of 144 tons compared with 17 July.

Nickel price judgment: there is no substantial and significant news change on the supply and demand side, the recent continuous rise in nickel price and the positive measures of large stainless steel plants are also inseparable, and the products in each link of the industrial chain are also in a state of passive follow-up, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. however, the pace of the capital-supported bull market is more difficult to grasp, and it is basically not suitable for unilateral traders to enter the market now. Follow-up attention to the trend of funds. Many rumors about Indonesia, such as financing, policy changes, etc., are worth analyzing and measuring, but they are also lack of guidance for the short-term market.