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[minutes of SMM Aluminum Internal Morning meeting] the basic metal is rising in general & the aluminum fundamentals are still under pressure.
Jul 19,2019 10:06CST
translation
Source:SMM
Trading: London Aluminum opened at $1845 / ton yesterday, after the opening of a small downward probe and then concussion upward, as high as $1857 / ton, closed at $1851 / ton, the daily K line closed at 5 Lianyang, up $4 / ton, up 0.22 per cent. The 1909 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company increased its position mainly by bulls overnight, closing at 13895 yuan / ton in the evening, up 55 yuan / ton from the opening of the day.
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7.19 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Trading: London Aluminum opened at $1845 / ton yesterday, after the opening of a small downward probe and then concussion upward, as high as $1857 / ton, closed at $1851 / ton, the daily K line closed at 5 Lianyang, up $4 / ton, up 0.22 per cent. The 1909 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company increased its position mainly by bulls overnight, closing at 13895 yuan / ton in the evening, up 55 yuan / ton from the opening of the day.

Macro: (1) the Fed is expected to cut interest rates again. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on Thursday that Fed officials need to act quickly and forcefully when interest rates are low and economic growth slows. Fed funds rate futures show that traders now think the Fed is nearly 50% likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its July 30-31 meeting, compared with an expected 34%. Stimulated by the news, the dollar closed at 96.696 points overnight, down 0.54%. Overnight London gold prices brushed the highest level since May 2013, and the three major US stock indexes also closed higher. (2) under the background of dual support from policies and subsidies, the profit margin of most new energy vehicles is only about 23 percent, which is significantly lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and with the sharp decline in subsidies, many new energy vehicle enterprises will be very difficult to make a profit; (3) the central ecological environmental protection inspectors stationed in six provinces and cities + 2 central enterprises, and have accepted 809 reports.

Fundamentals: cost side, SMM alumina quoted price of 2547 yuan / ton, the same as the previous day; demand side, Xihua Jingkai District and Beijing Rongxi Technology Co., Ltd. held the construction aluminum formwork project signing ceremony on the 16th of this month, the total investment of the project is 800 million yuan, the first phase investment is 200 million yuan. Yesterday SMM statistics of the national aluminum ingot social inventory of 1.042 million tons, as a whole compared with last Thursday stable, Shanghai, tin, Tianjin, Gongyi four places inventory has dropped; aluminum bar inventory of 81100 tons, compared with last Thursday down 400 tons, Foshan warehouse fell significantly; By the end of June 2019, the domestic photovoltaic index 2.2269GW, combined with the previous announcement of 2019 total 3.5GW household photovoltaic index, household photovoltaic still remaining 1.27GW index, after the Energy Bureau announced household photovoltaic index, the market may usher in a wave of loading tide, the second half of the photovoltaic market is still available.

Spot: on Thursday morning, a large household around 13820 yuan / ton received more than 8, 000 tons in Shanghai and Wuxi. With the increase in aluminum futures, the spot price began to rise, starting to focus on 13830 yuan / ton. Between 20 yuan / ton and 10 yuan / ton, the price is basically the same as that of the previous day. Hangzhou transaction price is between 13850 and 13860 yuan / ton. In the morning, the holders were very active in shipping, but there was a slight stalemate. In the second stage of the transaction, the number of middlemen receiving goods increased significantly, and the trading between buyers and sellers was active. Downstream is still on-demand procurement, a small amount of stock and no bright spots. The overall deal in East China was better on Thursday.

Summary: the Fed's interest rate cut has increased expectations to drive metal inflation, aluminum consumption into the off-season, many of the main consumption of electrolytic aluminum into the phased accumulation of aluminum, and the cost end is still going down the channel, short-term aluminum fundamentals are under pressure, so in this round of macro pricing market, the increase is relatively small, only better than zinc, and alumina profits flow to the electrolytic aluminum link, do not recommend continuous pursuit of high, but based on the expectation of accelerating storage in the peak consumer season in September, It is still recommended that if there is a pullback, try to lay out multiple orders at 13500 to 13800 yuan per ton. Structurally, it is possible to focus on the borrow, positive positions inside and outside the 09 / 12 contract, but it is not recommended to open a new one. Spot prices are expected to rise 50 to 60 yuan per ton today compared with yesterday, and 10 yuan per ton for the current month.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)

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