[2019.7.16 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] maintaining a strong nickel spot is still not good enough for stainless steel plants to raise their quotations actively.

Yesterday announced China's second quarter GDP annual rate, the previous value: 6.4%, expected: 6.2%, announced: 6.2%; China's June industrial added value annual rate, previous value: 5%, expected: 5.2%, published: 6.3%. In the first half of the year, the overall operation of the national economy was stable and continued to advance steadily. In July, the New York Fed manufacturing index was-8.6, expected 2, released 4.3, higher than expected, and the dollar index rose slightly at night. Today's data focus on the unemployment rate in the UK in June and the number of jobless claims in June; the euro zone adjusted trade account in May (100 million euros); the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in June, the monthly rate of the Import Price Index, the monthly rate of industrial output and the monthly rate of US business inventories in May.

Nickel spot: July 15 SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 105 300 per ton. The discount of Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 is about 500yuan / ton, which is slightly larger than that of Friday. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally quoted water 1000 to 1100 yuan / ton, a higher price is basically non-market. In the early trading period, the price fluctuated around 106000 yuan / ton, and the response of the spot market was mediocre, mainly by traders, only individual traders entered the market for inquiry, and the downstream was basically on the sidelines. The sharp rise in nickel prices led to the continued weakening of downstream demand and the active search for other alternative raw materials. Jinchuan nickel water continued to narrow compared with last week, the market is also no feedback. In the second trading period, the price rose slightly, the trading situation did not improve, the premium remained stable, and the demand was light. In the afternoon, nickel prices continue to fluctuate around 106000, the market is basically calm, the holder actively shipped, but the effect is very small, fewer buyers into the market, the mainstream transaction at 105 200 to 107 100 yuan / ton.

Nickel pig iron: July 15, according to SMM research, a steel mill in the south this week high nickel iron inquiry price is 970 to 980 yuan / nickel point, to the plant including tax, the mainstream transaction price is the same as last week. However, due to the current nickel price rose sharply, the price has not been concluded, if there is a deal or will be higher than this price.

Stainless steel: although the actual transaction is flat, the large stainless steel plant still follows the nickel price strong, raises the guidance price primarily. On July 15, the guiding price of cold rolling in stainless steel plants was generally 100 to 200 yuan / ton higher than that on Friday. According to SMM research, the price of state 3042B edge cutting coil in Wuxi market is 14600 14800 yuan / ton, and the price of private 3042B rough edge roll is 14400 14500 yuan / ton. Recently, as a result of nickel prices continue to rise, stainless steel prices rose slightly, but the actual demand downstream is weak, the overall transaction is light.

In terms of inventories, nickel stocks were 150300 tons on 15 July, a decrease of 516 tons compared with 12 July.

Nickel price judgment: in addition to the bullish price factor is still dominant, the recent strong rise in nickel prices, and the recent improvement in the macro environment, the strengthening of expectations of interest rate cuts in the dollar and the performance of nickel's own fundamentals are still good, stainless steel plants have not significantly reduced production as expected, the market has revised the pessimistic expectations of the previous period. In addition, from the emotional point of view, the recent frequent natural disasters in Indonesia also provide a certain amount of hype. In the short term, there is a strong trend, but there is no substantial and obvious support in the case of high space is limited.