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Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.7.8 to 2019.7.12)
Jul 12,2019 19:43CST
translation
Source:SMM
Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.7.8 to 2019.7.12)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, July 12 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

At the beginning of the week, as the public value of the US non-farm payrolls data was higher than expected, the US dollar rose sharply and rose above 97.5. A week later, Powell dove raised its forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July, and the US dollar fell below 97 points. Us crude oil inventory data recorded a sharp reduction, oil prices rebounded, and basic metals were generally boosted. SMMI rose 0.05 percent per week, nickel led the way again, nickel rose 6.58 percent per week, and nickel rose 5.98 percent in Shanghai. Bulls dominate the market, but spot fear of high caution is widespread, trading is blocked, not as strong as futures, SMMI.Ni weekly rose 4.49 per cent. Lead performance skyrocketed and plummeted, capital forces around the market, but smelters low price sales, storage enterprises once low briefly showed an increase in buying, SMMI.PB weekly increase of 0.47%. The price of copper rose at first and then rose, and the rising water remained stable, while SMMI.Cuwas up 0.42 per cent per week, while the price of copper rose by US $5950 per tonne in Shanghai and returned to the 46500 yuan per tonne line in Shanghai, where copper prices first suppressed and then rose, while SMMI.Cuwas up 0.42 per cent. Within a week, zinc became a weak variety, Shanghai zinc struggled around Wanjiu, spot low water also showed a stalemate, SMMI.Zn weekly decline of 2.05%.

Shanghai tin week continued to show short strength, but the spot rise did not see a significant expansion, it can be seen that downstream consumption is weak, SMMI.Sn weekly decline of 0.91 per cent. Although the Lun aluminum is strong, but the Shanghai aluminum rush high fall situation is obvious, the spot rising water holds steady, but the disk fluctuates greatly, the spot performance is cautious, SMMI.Al weekly drop 0.65%. In the face of delivery next week, and the concentration of economic data at home and abroad, the Federal Reserve will soon hold a meeting on interest rates, and the dollar will be under pressure under the guidance of interest rate cuts, and the direction of speculative capital will also attract more attention. It is directly related to the trend performance of each metal, and the differentiation of each metal performance will be more obvious.

 

Copper: the performance of Lun Copper was suppressed and then raised this week. This week's focus has been on the Fed's rate cut. At the beginning of the week, as the US non-agricultural data rose by 224000 in June, exceeding expectations and previous values, market sentiment toward the Fed interest rate cut moderated, with the US dollar rising to 97.6, and copper prices bottomed out at the beginning of the week after four days of negative pressure. 5791 US dollars / ton, but then at the beginning of the week, Powell dove, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that trade uncertainty and concerns about the global economy seemed to continue to weigh on the prospects of the US economy, and that the Fed would take "appropriate" action. To maintain economic growth in the United States. The dollar plummeted and fell below 97, boosting copper prices to recover from rapid lows and bulls rising sharply, rising 2.45% in a single day on Wednesday, getting rid of all EMA pressure, recovering multiple recent EMA, standing above the 20-day EMA, rebounding up $5998 / ton a week later, with a maximum increase of more than 3.5%, and maintaining a high and volatile pattern.

This week, Shanghai copper performance volatility is larger, within the week to form two major jump gap. At the beginning of the week, due to the sharp rise in the US dollar, copper prices were pressed straight from the platform above 46000, and the daily K line formed a small short gap, lengthening the lower part of the shadow line to 45640 yuan / ton, and taking profits from short positions. Subsequently, Fed doves superimposed positive crude oil, and Sino-US trade also seems to have signs of resumption of negotiations, macro multiple positive to promote the center of gravity of copper prices directly jumped to around 46500 yuan / ton, high up to 46790 yuan / ton position, daily K line below the 5th and 10th EMA support, and the center of gravity up to Brin middle rail, the technical side began to improve. This week, the overall trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index increased by more than 170000 hands to nearly 1.5 million hands, and the position decreased by more than 37000 hands to more than 580000 hands, mainly by short positions. On the spot side, at the beginning of this week, as a result of the relatively loose supply of goods, the holder's willingness to change cash was strengthened and the offer was actively lowered. At the beginning of the week, the quotation was reduced from 50 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, due to the copper price falling below 46000 yuan / ton, the market increased the enthusiasm of buying on the low side, the trading turned warm, and the holders quickly turned to the high price to cherish the sale, and held firm after the week to hold firm in the rising water 60-liter water 120 yuan / ton, Downstream every low to buy after holding inventory, the disk is high to return to cautious wait-and-see, traders difficult to depress the price of low-priced goods, the market again shows a stalemate pattern.

 

Aluminum: this week, Lun Al raised and then suppressed, and the center of gravity moved up as a whole. On Monday, Lunlun Aluminum ran as low as $1796 a tonne, after which it had been trying to break through upward as its averages gradually narrowed. In addition to the closure of the Polynesian Aluminij aluminum plant on Monday night, Len Aluminium rose above the 5-day moving average at the end of the European session, followed by Powell's early morning speech on Wednesday, which strengthened the expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut. Non-ferrous metals as a whole rose sharply. Lun Aluminum reached a high of US $1852.5 per tonne, and the following two days, Lun Aluminum fell back and fluctuated near the 5-day moving average. As of 18:06 on Friday, Lun Aluminum was at $1824 a tonne, above the 5-day moving average. On the holding, as of Thursday, the aluminum position increased by 25399 hands to 706668 hands. Lun Aluminum has returned to above the 5-day moving average, but there is still a lack of momentum overseas to push it up further, and it is expected to maintain range volatility above the 5-day moving average next week.

This week, the Shanghai Aluminum Company 1908 contract concussion runs in the lower moving averages. Monday, Tuesday Shanghai aluminum fundamentals did not improve, because Monday social inventory decline narrowed, Shanghai aluminum remained weak shock, input two consecutive yin, Wednesday Shanghai aluminum remained weak, low touched 13690 yuan / ton, in the evening due to the impact of Polynesian Aluminij shutdown, Shanghai aluminum received external drive, multi-head active entry Shanghai aluminum rebound to touch the 20-day moving average, and then continue to be due to the weakness of the US index, the outer market led to the Shanghai aluminum center of gravity to continue to move up. Interestingly, at one point, Shanghai Aluminum reached a high of 14015 yuan per ton at the start of trading on Wednesday night, but made a rapid return. The next day, due to the social aluminum ingot inventory from reduced to increased, the lack of basic support under the Shanghai aluminum shock fell back, back to the 5, 10-day moving average. Weekly position reduced by 13224 hands to 201484 hands, mainly long position reduction. The position of Zhoudu Shanghai Aluminum Index decreased by 9374 hands to 666706 hands, mainly by short positions. At present, on the one hand, the expectation for the weakening of domestic aluminum consumption in the third quarter remains unchanged, and it is also best to confirm that the inventory of social aluminum ingots is changing from reduction to increase, and at the same time, there is still room for decline in the prices of electricity, alumina, and so on, resulting in the downward movement of electrolytic aluminum costs; on the other hand, the enthusiasm for the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production is relatively low, the start-up month-on-month ratio is basically flat, the output has not increased significantly, and the overall maintenance of Shanghai aluminum remains weak and volatile. However, with the external environment, the US index interest rate cut is expected to increase, we need to be alert to the macro positive short-term boost to Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the entry point. Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a weak range of shocks next week, running between 13500 and 13850 yuan per ton.

This week, East China spot transactions are slightly worse than last week, spot aluminum ingot prices to range shock-based. The transaction price in Shanghai is between 13700 and 13820 yuan / ton, and the discount for the current month is between flat water and 20 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week. The spot price of Wuxi is between 13700 and 13820 yuan / ton. The average price of Wuxi aluminum ingots is slightly higher than that in Shanghai, and the price in Hangzhou is between 13710 and 13840 yuan / ton. This week, the supply of goods in East China market is more abundant, the main roles of transactions between Shanghai and Wuxi are traders and middlemen, and the main trading roles in Hangzhou are downstream manufacturers. This week, the cargoes are still active, and the replenishment of the lower part of the middlemen is also more active, the rhythm of receiving goods is more stable, and the overall transaction in East China is OK, but the downstream manufacturers have not shown any obvious willingness to replenish or stock up this week. Because the price fluctuates greatly within the week, the lower reaches is afraid of being high, and the lower reaches is in a wait-and-see mood because of its short expectations for the future market, so it will maintain the state of on-demand procurement within the week, only slightly better on Friday. But the stock was lower than traders had expected. Overall, sales this week were worse than last week, or a sign of weaker consumption in the off-season.

 

Lead: at the beginning of the week, under the stimulation of multiple good news, such as the easing of trade tensions between China and the United States, the increase in the probability of expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the postponement of the resumption of production at the Pearl Port lead Refinery, the solid long positive line was closed for three days in a row, and the pressure was straight to the US $2000 mark above, but after hitting a high level of US $1987 / ton, Lun lead fell back at the 40-day moving average at the weekly level, which also dealt a blow to the confidence of some bulls in their positions in the next two days. Lme lead 0-3 structure returned to the BACK, market expected to squeeze the market or re-appear, and then promote the Lun lead shock upward, but the good times are not long, some holders see the situation decided to close the position, so on Thursday Lme lead stocks slightly increased 1800 tons, the slight increase in stocks completely hit speculators to do more confidence, so Lun lead high down, the next two days basically at US $1950 around the amplitude of 20 US dollars / ton, as of Friday 13 50, Lun lead was reported at $1970.5 a tonne, up 4.98 per cent a week. As the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in July is expected to be as high as 97%, the pressure of strong volatility in the US Index is expected to be strong next week. Looking back at the US index next week, looking back at the lead, the current technical level has walked out of the obvious upward trend, and technically there is the possibility of continuing to break through the upward trend. However, on the basis of fundamentals, the inventory on Thursday will make up or suppress some of the bulls' determination to buy, so the future market will pay attention to the changes in LME lead stocks. It is expected that the trend of Lun lead is dominated by high shock. The range is expected to range from $1820 to $2000 per ton.

This week, the trend of lead in Shanghai is more "evil", and the logic behind it is that the intraday volatility is greatly magnified, in which the disturbance of fundamentals is relatively small, dominated by capital forces. In the case of deep capital intervention, it is suggested that it is more safe to wait and see outside the market. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead continued to be weak, and short funds frequently opened positions. On Tuesday afternoon, the market short sentiment reached its peak. Shanghai lead once broke through the bottom of the box and reached a new low of 15655 yuan per ton. Under the wailing of the market, Shanghai lead reversed on Wednesday. The main force of the plate continued to strengthen by borrowing the outer plate, and the lead price was raised at the end of the night. During this period, it reached 16450 yuan / ton, brushing a new high in the last two months. Market sentiment fluctuated sharply in two days, and over the next two days, long-short funds, worried about another strange volatility in the market, began to close their positions and left the market. Finally, the Shanghai lead 1908 contract was reported at 16085 yuan per ton, up 0.44 percent a week, and its position was reduced by 6916 hands to more than 43000 hands. At present, the fundamentals of lead are hardly optimistic, and there is no basis for lead prices to move out of the unilateral upward trend. We will still maintain the view of concussion next week, but due to the recent increase in volatility in Shanghai lead day, it is recommended to maintain a cautious view in next week's trading. The estimated range is 15850 to 16250 yuan per ton. In addition, the main contract may be replaced to the 1909 contract next week.

This week spot lead mainstream trading range of 15800 to 16100 yuan / ton. This week, the spot lead price fell to below 10,000, some storage enterprises began to replenish the warehouse at a low price, but due to the continued downturn in terminal consumption, this part of the procurement is dominated by rigid demand. In the next few days, the market volatility intensified, the panic of the storage enterprises rose, began to wait and see carefully, the market trading turned light; In terms of primary lead, this week, when the spot lead fell to less than 10,000 yuan, the refinery began to push the price out. A few days later, with the price repair, the refinery began to adjust the shipping of the rising paste water. As of Friday, the mainstream price of the refinery bulk order was 50 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead. The trade market quotation follows the market, as of Friday, the domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to the 1908 contract flat water to the liter water 50 yuan / ton; the renewable lead aspect, the renewable lead enterprise still with the discount price in the market transaction, but because the lead price is low, suppresses the refinery profit space, as of Friday, the renewable refined lead mainstream quotation to the SMM1# lead average price discount water 100 yuan / ton.

 

Zinc: this week, the weekly line of zinc turned red, and the bottom returned to rise in a narrow range of concussion operation. At the beginning of the week, the market risk preference sentiment was still suppressed. Although the LME zinc inventory continued to decline, the collapse of overseas structure to contango showed that there was no fierce contradiction between short-term overseas supply and demand. Under the guidance of long-term loose supply, the unilateral downward trend of London zinc hit a bottom of US $2355 / ton, followed by Powell's high "dove" interest rate cut expectation heats up, loose expectations ignite risk preference sentiment, and most non-ferrous metals turn red higher. The center of gravity of Len Zinc has returned to a narrow range around $2400 per ton, but the strong performance of US economic data has lowered the expected range of interest rate cuts, and timely overseas structures have returned to the state of small Back. Coupled with the re-introduction of monthly concentrated delivery next week, the action under zinc prices can be weakened and continue to fluctuate around the $2400 / ton barrier. As of Friday, trading volume was down 4940 to 44273 and positions were down 6361 to 248000. This week Shanghai zinc main 1909 contract around 19100 yuan / ton narrow range concussion operation, the fundamental is weak has not changed. At the beginning of the week, the macro view did not show optimistic performance, bearish sentiment continued to dominate the market, the main position increase in Shanghai zinc continued to dominate the market, the main position increase in Shanghai zinc continued to break the bottom of 10,000 yuan / ton, and some of the relatively low funds temporarily stopped making profits and leaving the market. Coupled with the return of macro optimism, Shanghai zinc warehouse reduction backfilled all the decline, but the fundamental performance was extremely weak. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, the market was short of long power. In due course, the contract price spread was balanced out in an all-round way, resulting in arbitrage opportunities. The main short selling force of Shanghai zinc has been strengthened again, and the operation center of gravity has dropped to 19000 yuan / ton integer gate near the narrow range finishing operation. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index rose 282000 hands to 3.116 million hands, while positions fell 38184 hands to 553000 hands. This week, Shanghai market 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract from 30 to 60 yuan / ton to 60 to 70 yuan / ton; Shuangyan, Chihong from 50 to 80 yuan / ton to 70 to 100 yuan / ton, imported SMC, India to 0 # domestic zinc discount 70-40 yuan / ton, near the weekend has little circulation. Zinc this week to maintain low operation, into the off-season after the downstream orders to dilute, more on-demand procurement on demand to enter the market, hoarding willingness is not strong, downstream consumption participation is relatively stable and no bright spots. On the other hand, the trading between traders is gradually heating up. Due to the expiration of a batch of long orders in the middle of the month, the intention of receiving goods from the gap between traders is stronger, and the spot rising water is also rising and stabilizing. In due course, the price difference between the month / the next month continues to narrow and turn to contango10-30 yuan / ton. The value holders of the month and the receiver are profitable, and the trading between traders is obviously better. However, the supply of long orders in the market is gradually tightened, making the spot quotation rise slightly again. However, direct docking downstream brands Shuangyan, Chihong, Dongling, torch and other quotations are stable, while imported zinc on the domestic discount has not narrowed, in essence, trading between traders this week dominated, downstream actual consumption compared with last week there is no greater bright spot.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1908 contract discount 50-30 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market from Friday near Pingshui to discount 100 yuan / ton. This week, zinc prices down, refineries slightly cherish the intention to sell, but due to the market circulation of goods more, and did not cause a greater impact. The spot offer from the holder to the 08 contract rose 120 yuan to 160 yuan per ton on Monday, falling to 50 yuan to 30 yuan per ton for the 08 contract on Friday. The main reason is that the contract base difference between the month of the week and the following month continues to narrow, from 140 yuan / ton on Monday to around 30 yuan / ton on Friday. Guangdong market holders quoted prices for the next month, resulting in a rapid decline in spot water. However, the market transaction is still relatively light, mainly due to the downstream zinc alloy enterprises into the off-season, superimposed downstream bearish sentiment is stronger. On the whole, trading this week was mainly contributed by traders, and the market transaction situation was slightly worse than that of last week.

This week, Tianjin 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1908 contract water 100 200 yuan / ton, Tianjin market compared with Shanghai market rose 60 yuan / ton last week to 100 yuan / ton. Within the week, zinc prices went down, refineries slightly cherished sales, and superimposed some refineries slowed down the pace of delivery, resulting in fewer goods arriving in Tianjin market. Since Wednesday, the circulation of market supplies has gradually tightened, and the willingness of holders to hold up prices has been stronger. The spot zinc rising water in Tianjin market has been rising continuously. From 70 to 120 yuan per ton for 07 contracts on Monday to 100 to 200 yuan per ton for 08 contracts on Friday, The monthly difference between the current month and the following month continued to shrink to around-20 yuan per ton. This week, the pace of delivery of refineries slowed slightly, the circulation of goods in the market tightened obviously, and within the week, rigid demand was basically maintained in the lower reaches, mainly on the sidelines. Zinc prices fell slightly on Friday, just in time for the weekend to come. downstream every fall to make up for the purchase willingness to have a more obvious improvement. This week downstream goods basically to maintain rigid demand, every fall a little reserve, this week the market transaction situation is basically the same as last week.

 

Tin: this week, the Lunxi electronic disk showed a general trend of suppression and then rise, and the center of gravity remained stable compared with last week, with a weekly decline of only 0.08%. The trading volume was 1470, a decrease of 1119. Position 16604 hands, reduced by 11 hands. At the beginning of the week, short positions increased and Lunxi fell under pressure as the dollar index rose. Subsequently, affected by the domestic Shanghai tin once again, Lunxi fell to a low of US $17905 per ton in the week, and hit bottom to recover nearly half of the decline in the previous period. From the weekly level, the current MACD bottom deviation form, coupled with the weekly level 10 and 20 to 60 EMA angle is too large, it is expected that Lunxi may maintain a small return state of the whole stock in the short term.

This week, the Shanghai period tin overall showed a trend of first promotion and then inhibition. At the beginning of the week, due to the early short force to close a large number of profit-taking, Shanghai tin rose sharply by 2580 yuan / ton, and in the next two days to maintain a high consolidation. However, after the market rose, short positions were once again attracted into the market to suppress the market, and Shanghai tin fell again by nearly 3000 yuan / ton. However, the capital strength of this round of short positions was not as strong as last time. In the falling market dominated by short forces, the departure of long explosive positions once again pulled down the Shanghai tin market price. After falling to a low of 132840 yuan / ton in the week, some short positions closed and attracted long positions to push up Shanghai tin prices. Erased nearly half of the previous decline. The closing price of tin for the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Friday was 134660 yuan / ton, up 660 yuan, or 0.49 per cent, from Friday's closing price. In the week, the trading volume decreased by 185000 hands to 153000 hands, and the position volume decreased by 8470 hands to 32298 hands.

Shanghai tin spot prices this week to follow the Shanghai tin plate first raise and then suppress. Although the tin disk fluctuated sharply this week in Shanghai, with a maximum fluctuation of nearly 3000 yuan / ton, due to the basic completion of the replenishment warehouse at the lower end of the week, this week, in addition to the low price sale of tin ingots by individual smelters on Wednesday, some downstream enterprises and traders bought goods on the low side, the demand side of the downstream enterprises remained weak as a whole, and the rising discount area was not significantly expanded due to weak demand. On Friday, the mainstream trading price in the Shanghai tin spot market was 135000 to 136500 yuan / ton, Friday set cloud tin rose 1200 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi rose 700 to 1000 yuan / ton, small brand rose 300 to 600 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: Lun Ni week continued to close for 5 days, from US $12450 / ton line, under the bulls continuous increase in positions, below the multiple EMA support to form a strong rebound upward trend, standing on all EMA, one after another broke through the platform before the high, touch high US $13300 / ton, weekly increase of 6.58 per cent.

Shanghai nickel trend followed the Lun Ni, to maintain the first inflow of capital within the week, the main 1908 contract on Monday relying on 98000 yuan / ton low, but also long to increase positions, rising all the way, showing a ladder upward trend, as of Friday closing, Shanghai nickel reached 104000 yuan / ton gate, breaking the three-month high before the platform, up 5.93% per week. The Shanghai nickel index increased its positions by nearly 140000 hands in the week, with bulls completely dominant in the market.

Spot market, this week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract since Monday discount 350 yuan / ton continues to expand, Friday base this newspaper discount 1908 yuan / ton or so. Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract water 2500 yuan / ton on Monday gradually narrowed to 1200 yuan / ton water. Russian nickel discount expanded, Jinchuan water narrowed, mainly due to rising prices, resulting in cautious downstream goods, more in the wait and see, superimposed last week low replenishment is sufficient, rigid demand is basically satisfied, only part of the recent did not replenish the downstream of the warehouse, the first half of the week nickel price below 100000 yuan / ton pass near, enter the market in a small amount of procurement. Prices skyrocketed in the second half of the week, the spot market tends to calm, the buyer to wait and see. It is expected that next week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 or discount 500 yuan / ton to discount 200 yuan / ton, Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract water 1 200 to 1 700 yuan / ton.

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