[2019.7.11 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] the probability of interest rate cuts in the United States is rising, and the internal and external markets are generally higher.

Macroscopically: the dollar index closed sharply lower yesterday, with the dollar falling further after the release of the minutes of the Fed's June meeting, falling 0.47 per cent to a recent three-day low of 97.03. Powell said on Wednesday that concerns about trade policy and global economic weakness "continue to depress the outlook for the US economy" and that the Fed is prepared to "take appropriate action" to maintain decade-long economic expansion. Uncertainty since the Fed's June meeting continues to put pressure on the economic outlook. Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, hinted that he was open to the option of cutting interest rates. Expectations of a FOMC rate cut were reinforced, weakening the dollar. Spot nickel market: SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 101900 to 103900 yuan / ton. The discount of Russian nickel is about 400 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai nickel 1908. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally quoted water 1400 to 1500 yuan / ton, a few higher quotations are basically non-market. Early trading hours, prices rose sharply, as high as 103000 yuan / ton, higher than yesterday, spot transactions are unusually light, downstream due to higher prices in wait-and-see, Jinchuan nickel water than yesterday, buyer's market. In the second trading period, the price was stable at 102000 yuan / ton, and the spot was still not ideal. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company was 103500, 2500 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, and the mainstream transaction was 101900-103800 yuan / ton. Although the nickel price has fallen in the afternoon, but the spot stimulus is limited, the transaction enthusiasm continues in the morning, basically by the seller quotation primarily, the mainstream transaction 101700 to 103700 yuan / ton. Stainless steel market: the guiding price of stainless steel factory was generally flat yesterday. According to SMM research, the prices of state-owned 3042B edge cutting rolls in Wuxi market are 14400 14500 yuan / ton, private 3042B rough edge rolls 14100 14200 yuan / ton, Delong 304 / NO. Fifteen feet is 13600 to 13700 yuan per ton. Although the nickel price is strong today, but the actual demand for stainless steel downstream is weak, the overall transaction is light. In terms of stocks: 153600 tons of nickel were in stock on 10 July, a decrease of 492 tons compared with 9 July. Nickel price judgment: the recent external market trend strongly led to a wave of market, fundamentals and news have not yet provided obvious upward momentum, the future market pay close attention to the external market data, is expected to be strong in the short term, Shanghai nickel main contract 103000 is the latest resistance level, wait and see if it can break through again.