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Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.07.01 to 2019.07.05)
Jul 5,2019 19:07CST
translation
Source:SMM
Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.07.01 to 2019.07.05)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, July 5 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

 

At the close of the G20 summit in Osaka last weekend, Xi special will make optimistic progress, but at the micro level, the PMI of the manufacturing industry in various major economic systems has continued to decline, the slow trade war between China and the United States and the optimistic situation has cast a shadow, at the same time, there are continuous frictions between the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea, economic sanctions between the United States and Iraq and the resulting confrontation between Iran and Western countries are still escalating, and the pressure of economic decline in the international situation is increasing. Some economies have taken easing measures to deal with it, and the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to rise, but there is still uncertainty about the timing. The center of gravity of the recovery of the low dollar has risen to a concussion around 96.77. Gold has won a strong trend in risk aversion. Most of the non-ferrous metals have fallen under pressure, and the bears have made a large-scale attack. SMMI fell 1.32% per week, led by tin and nickel, and Shanghai Tin fell by the limit for two consecutive trading days. The decline is more than 10, 000 yuan, 127700 yuan / ton from above 140000 yuan, and the decline of Lunxi and falling week is also more than 6%. In the domestic spot market, due to the high price of smelter, rising water is high and selling at a low price, SMMI.Sn is down 3.85% per week, showing that there is a price without a market. The nickel market is led by nickel, led by short, a one-day collapse of more than 3%, Shanghai nickel the biggest decline of more than 4%, spot rising water, every low downstream replenishment increased, promoting a rapid recovery of low, recover some of the decline, SMMI.Ni fell 3.03% per week. the market is led by nickel, led by short-sellers, plummeting more than 3% in a single day, and the biggest drop in nickel in Shanghai has been more than 4%. Lun zinc 0-3BACK structure collapsed, Lun zinc fell rapidly, Shanghai zinc is under short pressure, from 20, 000 yuan pass straight down to 19500 yuan / ton, only then has the slow characteristic, the week biggest decline has been to 2.5%, after a week recovers the partial decline trend to the week drop 1.93%, the spot rises slightly, the SMMI.Zn weekly drops 2.54%. The biggest decline in the week has been 2.5%, the recovery of part of the decline has been 1.93%, the spot rose slightly, and the SMMI.Zn fell 2.54% per week. Although Shanghai lead is still in the original range of 16000 to 16250 yuan / ton shock, close to the six thousand mark, attracting some storage enterprises to buy at bargains, SMMI.Pb fell 0.16 per cent per week. Shanghai aluminum in the touch of 13650 yuan line soon after the low recovery, spot to maintain a small increase in water and low buying enthusiasm, SMMI.Al week down 0.07%, within the week performance of good resistance. According to the US non-agricultural data released on Friday, with the concentration of economic data next week, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut have improved, the dollar's low level has picked up, the basic metals are still under pressure, and the bears should not be underestimated. The basic metals face delivery in the same month next week, and the market lows may have limited room to continue to rise in the off-season effect of consumption in July and August.

 

Copper: the performance of Lun Copper this week rose and fell back. As a result of the agreement to restart economic and trade talks after the G20 meeting of the US and China leaders over the weekend, the US side said that it would not impose new tariffs on Chinese goods "for the time being." Lun Copper jumped to a high of US $6075 per ton before Monday. However, due to no substantial improvement in macro, the weakness of the global economy has exacerbated the market's concern about global crude oil demand, which plunged nearly 5 percent within the week. In addition, due to the delivery of more than 30, 000 tons of LME copper stocks, Bullish risk aversion, copper prices fell back quickly, down $5840 / ton in the middle of the week, instantly fell below the multiple recent moving average, the upper pressure greatly increased, weekly decline 2.7%, weekly K line closed at the physical big Yin column, the positive gold fork pattern formed before KDJ was broken. This week, Lentong reduced its position mainly by bulls, with its position reduced by 3907 to 296000.

This week, Shanghai Copper plummeted along with the high level of Lun Copper, rising sharply to 47450 yuan / ton on Monday, but the positive mood was quickly digested, the low US dollar recovered, and China announced that the PMI of the Caixin manufacturing industry fell in June, ending the previous four consecutive months of growth. In June, the prosperity of China's manufacturing industry dropped significantly, the economy was further under pressure, domestic demand shrank obviously, and external demand was still supported by the factor of "grabbing exports." The month-on-month increase in inventories last week also seems to confirm the fact that the off-season of domestic consumption is coming early, so short sellers take advantage of the high level, copper prices all the way low, within the week is now 3 even negative, the biggest decline of more than 2.5%, the center of gravity lost all recent EMA, and fell Brin middle track, lower 46220 yuan / ton, the decline has stopped, although the week after the decline has converged to 1.55%, but the technical performance has been empty again. This week, the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 26510 hands to 620000, mainly by short positions, and over the weekend, the main position completed the month change.

This week, cross-month into the second half of the trading cycle, enterprise funds unbound, early in the week when the market level is high and has not fallen, the market can circulate goods source also did not see a large number of surges, especially good copper is still tight, at the beginning of the month, the holder has no throwing pressure, strong willingness to push, then the disk plummeted, traders and downstream bargain buying significantly improved, the market inquiry atmosphere is positive. The carrier pulled up the quotation all the way from 30 yuan to 100 yuan per ton of water at the beginning of the week to 70 yuan per ton of water and 150 yuan per ton of water. Week later. At the end of the week, copper stopped falling and rose, and after the lower reaches of the river had a low price inventory, it stopped, and there was no rush to replenish the goods. Under the rising water, the enthusiasm of the traders also converged, the rising rhythm stopped, and the supply and demand sides showed the sawing situation again.

 

 

Aluminum: this week Lun aluminum first suppressed and then rose. The main reason was that the final PMI value of the US Markit manufacturing industry in June was better than expected, with the US index rising from 96.198 to 96.828, with the overall pressure on non-ferrous metals falling back, and the performance of aluminum relatively resistant to decline. The main reason is that LME aluminum stocks continued to decline during the week, so that Lun Aluminum began to rebound after hitting a low of $1771.5 / ton on Tuesday, and tried to break through the 60-day moving average above the 60-day moving average on Friday, reaching a high of $1810.5 / tonne. As of 17:28 on Friday, Lun Aluminum was at $1807 / ton, almost wiped out the week's decline, recording Sanlianyang. On the holding, as of Thursday, the aluminum position increased by 17165 hands to 681269 hands. Next week still needs to pay attention to the impact of the weekly macro data on the US index, but the current London aluminum is still stronger than the domestic Shanghai aluminum, next week there is still the possibility of an upward breakthrough.

The 1908 contract of Shanghai Aluminium Company was suppressed and then raised this week. Monday into the third quarter consumption weakened and aluminum ingot inventory narrowed to give short confidence, short into the flat state of Shanghai aluminum continued Friday's decline, recording three consecutive negative, low hit 13635 yuan / ton. With the digestion of weaker consumer sentiment, the departure of short sellers and the recovery of more than 20,000 tons of social aluminium ingot inventories on Thursday, bulls gained confidence and Shanghai aluminium rebounded. It is worth mentioning that the concentrated closing of short positions on Thursday night caused Shanghai Aluminum to break through the 10 / 20 EMA one after another, reaching a high of 13895 yuan per ton, but after the next day of trading, bulls were not confident enough to close their positions and leave the market on Friday afternoon to close at 13790 yuan per ton, returning to the 5 / 10 EMA. The weekly position was built by 29370 to 214708 hands, and the position of Zhoudu Shanghai Aluminum Index decreased by 17974 to 676080, mainly by long positions. At present, on the one hand, the expectation of weakening domestic aluminum consumption in the third quarter remains unchanged, and at the same time, there is still room for decline in the prices of electricity and alumina, which makes the cost of electrolytic aluminum move downward; on the other hand, the enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum production is low, the month-on-month ratio of construction is basically the same, the output has not increased significantly, and the inventory of social aluminum ingots has maintained a certain rate of decline. Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a weak range of shocks next week, running between 13500 and 13850 yuan per ton.

This week, the spot price in East China was first suppressed and then rose, and the transaction was average at the beginning of the week, and it improved obviously near the weekend. The spot price in Shanghai is between 13630 and 13810 yuan / ton, the price is between 20 yuan / ton and 20 yuan / ton, Wuxi price is between 13640 and 13810 yuan / ton, and Hangzhou price is between 13650 and 13840 yuan / ton. Although the inventory in Shanghai and tin continued to decline this week, but the market supply is still relatively sufficient, the overall transaction on Monday is flat, Tuesday and Wednesday aluminum prices down, the holder low price delivery convergence, some high price, spot rising water with it, although the inquiry between active but the actual transaction is not much, the willingness to receive goods in the middle and lower reaches of the week is flat, basically on-demand procurement-based, so the previous few days of aluminum ingot transactions are more general. Friday's aluminum price rose nearly 50 yuan / ton from Wednesday's price, but due to the preparation of goods downstream near the weekend, the purchase volume increased significantly compared with the previous few days, the holder shipped actively under the high price, the middleman also traded actively, the overall transaction was better.

 

 

Lead: this week, lead closed for 5 consecutive negative, ending nearly 4 weeks of unilateral rally, of which we mentioned many times, when the LME lead 0 to 3 liter discount structure returned to congtango, overseas forced positions came to an end, coupled with the strong volatility of the dollar index this week, but also suppressed the space above Lun lead; At the beginning of the week, under the pressure of the low anti-pumping upward of the US Index, Lun lead fell one after another from its high levels, breaking through the 5 -, 10-and 20-day EMA support one after another, and the US $1900 mark was also lost at the same time, laying the weak market for the week. In the next few days, the downward range of Lun lead slowed, as low as US $1871.5 per ton during the period, and then fluctuated at US $1880. As of Friday 13-50, Lun lead was reported at US $1883.5 per ton, down 2.56 percent per week. In the macro data set next week, as the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in July has reached 75%, partly suppressing the height of the US index, it is also expected to ease the downward pressure on lead, which is expected to be dominated by interval concussion next week. Technically, it can still give some support; the expected range is 1860-1920 US dollars / ton.

This week, Shanghai lead continued range volatility, the market trading strategy is basically around 16000 to 16300 range of high selling and low absorption, but recently, Shanghai lead daily volatility narrowed, we think that in the near future there may be the possibility of breaking the inherent trading model; At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead opened higher, pulling up 1.74% in one day, during which it was once as high as 16285 yuan / ton, and reversed the previous part of the decline, but as expected, due to the weak fundamentals of lead, the short position was active in the next few days, and the lead price fell back, during which time it was as low as 15925 yuan / ton. Although some of the protection funds were constantly trying to raise the price, they could not reach the market short selling pressure. The final Shanghai lead 1908 contract was quoted at 16010 yuan per ton, a weekly decline of 0.06 percent, and the position was reduced by 5710 hands to 50750 hands. Domestic lead fundamentals, the supply side last July is the process of lead smelters to resume production one after another, and terminal passenger car sales and other data performance is low, coupled with high inventory of finished products, July has not seen signs of improvement in consumption, overall, lead fundamentals are still pessimistic; Technically, the range of lead prices around 15800 to 16300 yuan / ton is as long as 2 months. Recently, with the narrowing of intraday volatility, it is necessary to be careful to break the inherent thinking; the expected range is 15900 to 16250 yuan / ton.

This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is 15950 to 16200 yuan per ton. Low lead prices this week, terminal consumption has not improved, storage enterprises to sell fixed production, but in the spot lead prices fell to around 10,000, some storage enterprises began rigid demand procurement, but the overall market trading is still light; In terms of primary lead, the bulk orders of refineries are generally shipped by discount, but in July, the capital flow of enterprises has been relaxed, and the spot discount has narrowed. As of Friday, the mainstream price of SMM1# lead in refineries is equal to 50 yuan / ton of discount. Trade market is also weak, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to 1907 contract flat water to liter water 50 yuan / ton; recycled lead, renewable enterprises still discount price in the market transaction, but because of the low lead price, suppress refinery profit space, as of Friday, renewable lead mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount 150 to 100 yuan / ton factory.

 

 

Zinc: the rapid collapse of Back structure this week significantly weakened the support of Len Zinc, and the center of gravity of Len Zinc operation continued to move down. At the beginning of the week, under the backdrop of macro optimism, the Lun Zinc Jump opened directly on the US $2500 / ton integer level, touching US $2538 per ton in intraday trading, but the optimism was difficult to sustain, and at the same time, the US finger pulled up pressure, and the zinc price shock did not hesitate to directly drop US $2500 / ton integer level. The center of gravity of the operation moved down to US $2460 / ton for a little finishing operation, and the macro short news was basically released and returned to the fundamentals. Although LME zinc stocks maintained a downward trend, but the Back structure accelerated collapse, directly fell to around $9.50 / ton, later supply moderation is expected to intensify, Lun Zinc regained its downward trend and moved down to $2425 / ton, with up and down space of less than $10 / ton, European trading hours straight below $2400 / ton integer position approaching the year's low, the overall operation is weaker. As of Friday, trading volume was down 9005 to 42475 and positions were down 9030 to 257000.

The supply of consumption in the off-season is growing steadily, the action is insufficient, and the multi-way moving average of zinc under pressure in Shanghai is lower. At the beginning of the week, the macro-positive was good to boost the next zinc straight line, then the shock went down, and the operation was quite weak. In July, domestic consumption turned into an absolute off-season, but the supply was still steadily growing close to the peak, and the supply and demand of refined zinc continued to be out of balance. Basically, there was no positive support in the face of zinc prices, and there was still a certain distance from the mine cost support below. There was no sharp contradiction in the short-term zinc fundamentals, because the logic of the fall in the price of zinc was clearer and smoother. Zinc phase by the external disk and macro-guiding operation is more obvious, zinc with the fall of the operation center of gravity first adjusted to 19650 yuan / ton near a narrow range of shock, up and down space of about 19650 yuan / ton, and then the center of gravity accelerated down to 19450 yuan / ton to temporarily stop the fall finishing, the overall operation is weaker. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index fell 461000 hands to 2.834 million hands, and positions fell 30422 hands to 592000 hands.

This week, Shanghai market 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract from 30-discount 20 yuan / ton to 10 to 30 yuan / ton; Shuangyan, Chihong discount 10-liter 10 yuan / ton to 30 to 50 yuan / ton, imported SMC, India to 0 # domestic zinc discount 70-30 yuan / ton, low price sources are more popular. At the beginning of the month, the market capital level was relaxed, and the willingness of traders to actively sell goods has been weakened. At the same time, the contract position was high that month, and the market still had doubts about the squeeze. At the beginning of the week, some traders entered the market at a low price to disrupt a pool of spring water. Long single participants were worried about the subsequent impact, and also actively received goods. The market circulation was slightly tightened, and the market quotation narrowed down to a stable operation near Pingshui. However, the zinc futures market is expected to be more bearish. Before the absolute price falls obviously, the downstream procurement maintains the rigid demand, and the traders occupy the dominant position. Friday zinc fell sharply, the willingness of the market to receive goods increased significantly, long orders and downstream procurement performance are better, transaction atmosphere weak warming, the overall transaction this week is limited compared with last week.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1908 contract rose 130 to 140 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market discount of 80 yuan / ton to Pingshui near. The refinery shipped normally this week, and the circulation of goods in the market was very abundant. Except Friday, the price is running relatively smoothly during the week, and the quotation of the holder is concentrated around 160 yuan / ton of 1908 contract. Most of the market trading is contributed by traders, and the downstream basically maintains the purchase on demand, but does not contribute a large amount of consumption. On Friday, zinc prices fell by a large margin, which coincided with the narrowing of the monthly difference between the same month and the following month. In order to actively ship goods, traders quoted for contracts in the following month lowered the water price to about 130 to 140 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Just in the run-up to the weekend, the willingness of the lower bank to buy stocks at the lower end of the river was significantly improved. Overall, trading this week was mainly contributed by traders, and the market was basically flat compared with last week. This week, Tianjin 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract rising water 50 to 120 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai market rose water 100 yuan / ton last week narrowed to 60 yuan / ton. The normal shipment of refineries within the week, the circulation of goods in the market is abundant, and the spot water supply in Tianjin market has been downgraded continuously within the week. From about 40 yuan per ton of 1907 contract on Monday to 0 to 80 yuan per ton of 1907 contract on Thursday, the main reason is that most of the downstream are galvanized plants, but the problem of inverted cost in the early stage of galvanizing plants has not yet been alleviated. Recently, it is faced with the problem of less orders and lighter orders, superimposed on the price bearish sentiment downstream, the main reason is that most of the downstream galvanizing plants are mainly galvanizing plants, and the problem of upside down costs in the early stage of galvanizing plants has not yet been alleviated. The willingness to receive the goods is not good. Zinc prices fell again on Friday, the decline was more obvious within the week, superposition weekend is just around the corner, the willingness of downstream reserves is significantly stronger than within the week, market transactions focused on the 07 contract rising water 50-120 yuan / ton. Overall, except Friday, the rest of the week market transactions are relatively flat, Tianjin market transactions this week compared with last week basically flat.

 

 

Tin: under the influence of domestic Shanghai tin and short-seller forces, Lunxi plummeted on Tuesday, falling 6.43% in a single day, down $17585 / ton, to its lowest level since July 2016. the low buying of Lunxi stopped falling and rose again, and Lunxi rebounded for the second day in a row, recovering some of its losses at the beginning of the week, down 1.9 per cent a week. The recovery is now back to the 5-day moving average and is currently blocked at $18500 a tonne. The cycle level MACD index has the bottom deviation, coupled with the KDJ index is near the overshoot line, there may still be recovery space in the future.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange maintained its consolidation on Monday, and in the next two days, due to a comprehensive crackdown on short positions on the capital side, Shanghai Tin quickly fell below the horizontal range low of 140000 yuan / ton since November 2016. as the bulls left the market, Shanghai tin continued to fall rapidly to a low of 127780 yuan per ton, resulting in a continuous decline in the limit board. After the super-fall, some short positions closed their positions and left the market, and the bulls took advantage of the opportunity to buy at a discount. The tin center of gravity rose and moved up in Shanghai. The price of tin for the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed at 134000 yuan per ton on Friday, down 9110 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 338000, an increase of 280000. The position was 40768 hands, an increase of 3032 hands.

This week, as a result of the Shanghai tin plate surface by the capital pressure fell sharply, smelters to maintain a high level of quotation, especially in Yunnan smelter strong willingness, but traders in the hands of the price of set prices fell sharply along with the disk, the actual transaction price this week as low as 133500 to 135000 yuan / ton, Friday spot actual transaction price of 135000 to 135600 yuan / ton, the actual spot transaction price on Friday is 135000 to 135600 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price fell as low as 133500 to 135000 yuan / ton, and the actual spot transaction price on Friday was 135000 to 135600 yuan / ton. In terms of discount, due to the sharp fall in the tin disk surface in Shanghai, the spot discount in Shanghai and tin once soared to 3000 yuan / ton in Yunxi, 2000 yuan / ton in ordinary Yunzi, 1500 yuan / ton in small brand rising water, 1500 yuan / ton in small brand rising water, 1200 yuan / ton in ordinary Yunzi rising water / ton, 1 000 / 1 100 yuan / ton in small brand rising water, and 1000 / 1 100 yuan / ton in small brand rising water on Friday, as a result of the sharp fall in Shanghai tin plate surface, Shanghai tin spot rising discount water once soared to Yunxi Shengshui 3000 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi rising water 2000 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 1 500 yuan / ton. On the downstream demand side, due to the sharp drop in spot prices in Shanghai and tin to the lowest level since the end of 2016, downstream enterprises are willing to buy from traders, and on Friday, the inventory of most downstream enterprises has become saturated and weak. The overall transaction of smelters this week was light due to high prices.

 

 

Nickel: at the beginning of the week, the G20 sent good news that most of the other basic metals were strong, but after briefly pushing up the nearly three-month high of US $12850 at the beginning of the day, Lennie was hit by a short-lead critical attack, plummeting more than US $500a ton in one day, falling by more than 3% in a single day, and the long head was pulled out the next day. Lennie fell to US $12010 / ton, which was supported by the 20-and 40-day moving average below. Bullish low buying gradually recovered some of the decline at the beginning of the week on Wednesday, ending the positive line for three consecutive weeks, down 2.64%.

Shanghai nickel, due to the withdrawal of the main domestic bulls, also fell sharply, falling nearly 4% in two days since Monday's 102000 yuan / ton, falling below the Boll line and below the Boll line, down 96500 yuan / ton line. In the second half of the week, although the low rise, but the upper pressure multiple moving average, subject to 99000 yuan / ton gate, the recovery is weak. The recent change in the market has temporarily come to an end, the withdrawal of the main long funds, nickel prices gradually returned to weak supply and demand, a weekly decline of 3.4%. On the supply side, the domestic pure nickel inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks, the increase is obvious; the new production capacity of nickel pig iron is gradually released, due to steel mills gradually increase the proportion of nickel pig iron use, is currently in a weak balance, but there is still a new release in the later stage. On the demand side, under the pressure of the global economy, the growth rate of stainless steel downstream consumption is slow, stainless steel inventory is at a high level for a long time, and steel mills gradually reduce production to release inventory pressure. Therefore, from the point of view of nickel supply and demand, it is still weak in the long run.

Spot market, this week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract since Monday discount 500 yuan / ton or so, Friday base this newspaper discount is about 300 yuan / ton, Russian nickel discount narrowing is mainly due to the first half of the week prices fell sharply, boost downstream take goods sentiment, especially when the price fell to 100000 yuan / ton and 97200 yuan / ton, spot trading is active, downstream bargain into the market to replenish the warehouse. The second half of the week price low rebound, downstream procurement sentiment receded, more in the wait-and-see, buy Xing is not strong, waiting for further price correction. Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract rose 1000 yuan / ton on Monday, and then gradually expanded to Friday reported rising water 2600-2800 yuan / ton, Jinchuan rising water continues to expand, mainly due to the recent Jinchuan No. 1 electrolytic nickel supply is tight, the first half of the spot market due to a sharp fall in prices, transactions improved, resulting in Jinchuan rising water continuously, while Jinchuan company cherish the sale of 1 # electrolytic nickel. In the second half of the week, the market tends to be the same as Russian nickel. However, the shortage of goods in Jinchuan led to the strong willingness of the cargo holders to lift the water, and the rising water was strong. It is expected that next week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 or discount water 400 yuan / ton to discount 200 yuan / ton, Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract water 2500 to 3500 yuan / ton.

SMM Weekly Review
basic Metals Weekly Review

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