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[SMM Review] Zinc in Shanghai fell more than 1 per cent. Most of the floating green and black green manure red and thin crude oil fell slightly.
Jul 5,2019 09:56CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 month 5 news: early this morning, most of the non-ferrous metals market fluttered green, as of 09:50, Shanghai zinc fell more than 1%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.3%, Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.2%, Shanghai copper, Shanghai nickel weak green, Shanghai aluminum only alone red, up nearly 0.5%; news, Glencore Congo KOV open-air copper and cobalt mine before the partial collapse, killing at least 43 illegal miners were killed, the Congolese army has arrived at the mine. Glencore said it hoped the military would "exercise restraint", use appropriate force and provide medical assistance. At present, the mine is still in normal operation. "after the collapse of the Glencore copper and cobalt mine, the army will arrive at the illegal trade site around the mining area and will be closed.

In the black system, iron ore fell by nearly 1.8%, threads rose by nearly 0.3%, hot rolls rose by nearly 0.2%, coking coal floated weakly green, and coke rose by nearly 1.1%. On the news side, according to Wenhua Finance and Economics, the Brazilian Senate committee has put forward some measures on mining safety in response to the Brumadi New tailing accident. Within 10 years, stop the operation license of all new tailing dams, stop operation at the operating tailing dams, and for the relatively stable tailing dams, stop operation within five years. At present, Brazil has 769 tailings dams, 42% of which operate without permission to operate. In addition, there will be an increase in taxes on mining companies, such as royalties, and an additional proportion of the net income of mining companies based on the scale of mining.

The last issue of crude oil fell nearly 0.2% in early trading, according to Huitong. According to Huitong, overnight international oil prices fell in light trading as data showed that US crude oil stocks fell less than expected last week and investors were worried about the global economy. As July 4 is the Independence Day holiday in the United States, traffic is significantly lighter than before. However, there are concerns that Iran may intensify its confrontation with the West, limiting the decline in oil prices.


Technical analysis:

Copper: focus on the non-agricultural data released in the United States in the evening, which will guide the trend of copper prices. At present, Shanghai Copper has lost all its EMA support, and the KDJ index continues to expand. It is expected to continue to maintain a weak trend of concussion today. Spot rising water recently continued to be strong, traders have an adequate supply of goods, and disk prices remain volatile, the overall market trading stalemate, today is still difficult to change the rising water pattern. It is expected that today's London copper 5900 to 5940 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 46200 to 46600 yuan / ton, spot water today 60-140 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: overnight aluminum price rose sharply, it is expected that today's aluminum run between 13700 yuan / ton and 13900 yuan / ton, spot discount is between 20 yuan / ton and 20 yuan / ton, today's price is higher than yesterday's price, the increase is less than 50 yuan / ton, it is suggested that the downstream on demand procurement, because near the weekend can be properly stocked. Due to the weak trend of aluminum prices in the early period, and the inventory continued to fall and superimposed spot is still rising for a long time, short confidence is insufficient, short positions are significantly reduced after midnight, nearly 5,000 positions are reduced within an hour, but the fundamentals are ultimately on the short side, and the space to continue to go up is expected to be limited. It is expected to run between 13700 and 13900 yuan / ton today, and Lunal is expected to run between 1750 and 1850 US dollars / ton today.

Lead: Lun lead closed for four consecutive negative, but the smooth degree of decline has slowed down, mainly because the upward trend still exists, there are some technical bottom-copying funds. The overall trend of Shanghai lead is basically in line with our view of interval concussion, but with the gradual narrowing of volatility, we need to be careful to break the inherent thinking trend.

Zinc: after the 5-day EMA, the back structure narrowed, the superimposed supply increased, and the bearish sentiment strengthened under the easing of the contradiction between supply and demand, but the low level of overall inventory was maintained, and the lower looking integer position was supported, running between $2400 and $2450 per ton within a day or range. Affected by the external market, Shanghai zinc is lower, the consumption off-season is coming, the demand is weak, the short position is suppressed, the KDJ index forms a dead fork, and the overall action energy is insufficient, running at 19150 yuan / ton within a day or in a range of 19150 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic to 1907 contract affixed 10-liter 40, double Yan liter water 20-liter water 60.

Nickel: overnight Shanghai nickel opened at 98280 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the plate, Shanghai nickel pressure daily average concussion downward, fell below the 98000 yuan / ton mark, the bottom 97550 yuan / ton line. At night, supported by the downward support of the US finger, Shanghai nickel bounced up to 98400 yuan / ton, closing at 98420 yuan / ton. Shanghai Ni 1908 position decreased by 1858 hands to 124298 hands, Shanghai Ni 1909 night trading position increased by 4430 hands to 123762 hands, the main contract is about to change positions for the month. Today, it is forecast that the Shanghai nickel 08 contract will fluctuate in the 98000-99000 yuan / ton range. Today should pay attention to the United States after the June quarter adjusted non-farm payrolls and the U. S. June unemployment rate data.

Tin: resistance above Lunxi is expected to be near the 10-day moving average of $18600 per ton. It is estimated that the lower support of Shanghai tin is located near the integer gate of 132000 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance is near the 5-day moving average of 135000 yuan / ton. Spot market, Shanghai tin main 1909 contract last night to maintain the focus of stability, is expected to quote today is 137,000 to 140500 yuan / ton.


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