[SMM exclusive] in June, the final value of the PMI composite index for the nickel downstream industry fell sharply compared with the month-on-month comparison.

SMM July 2-the final value of the PMI composite index for the downstream nickel industry in June was 43.75%, down 0.86 percentage points from May, lower than the line of prosperity and decline, and slightly better than the expected value of 40.38%.

The composite production index fell 1.12 percentage points to 39.3% in June from a month earlier, below the line but better than expected at 33.55%. Downstream production in the nickel industry has been lacklustre this month. The production index of stainless steel industry in June was 40.04%, 9.61 percentage points higher than expected. The production reduction of stainless steel plants is still not high, and the production of 300 series stainless steel is expected to shrink slightly in June. The production index of alloy casting industry is 36.45%, which is much lower than the line of prosperity and decline, due to the dilution of demand and the production restriction of some enterprises. In addition, the performance of the battery industry is poor, the production index is only 11.58%, downstream demand has fallen sharply, and the ternary battery industry has reduced production more.

The composite new orders index for June was 38.53%, a slight increase of 0.11 percentage points from May, and continued to be below the line but 10.53 percentage points higher than the expected value of 31.67%. Demand in the lower reaches of the nickel industry continues to weaken. Among them, the stainless steel industry June new order index 39.23%, the transaction atmosphere is still flat, downstream demand remains low. The alloy casting industry also performed poorly. In June, the new order index of the alloy industry was 36.45%. Orders in the downstream home appliances, chemical and container industries fell slightly compared with the same period last year, while orders in some enterprises in June were weaker than in May, and downstream demand became weaker. The performance of new orders in the battery industry is poor, only 12.63%. At the end of the transition period of new energy subsidies, the recent safety accidents of new energy vehicles occur frequently, and the order situation of three-way battery factory is not satisfactory.

The composite raw material inventory index fell 1.01 percentage points to 49.32% in June from a month earlier, falling below the line of prosperity and decline. With the exception of the battery industry, the raw material inventory index of other industries is higher than the line of prosperity and decline. Due to the decline in overall demand, the decline in purchasing volume and the shortening of the purchasing cycle, the raw material inventory index fell sharply to 12.63%.

The composite inventory index fell 11.31 percentage points to 47.99% in June, breaking the line for the first time since April. Among them, the stainless steel industry June product inventory index 49.22%, down 12.32% compared with May, stainless steel plant high price to inventory slightly effective, although the demand is general, but with 300 series stainless steel production reduction and steel mill product structure, shipping strategy adjustment, 300 series stainless steel social inventory does have a certain decline. In addition, the battery industry product inventory index is 12.63%, the current new energy industry is in a painful period, battery enterprises actively go to the warehouse.

By industry:

Nickel downstream sub-industry PMI sub-index for June

Detailed values are shown in the following table:

The final value of PMI composite index of stainless steel industry in June was 44.28%, which was lower than the line of prosperity and decline, almost the same as in May and 5.49% higher than the expected value. The production index in June was 40.04%, unchanged from May. The production of 300 series stainless steel is expected to shrink slightly in June, but the overall production reduction is not high. June product inventory index 49.22%, down 12.32% compared with May, is the most obvious change in the index, June stainless steel high price to inventory has a certain effect, although the transaction atmosphere is still flat, downstream demand changes little, but with the 300 series stainless steel itself production reduction and steel mill product structure, shipping strategy adjustment, 300 series stainless steel social inventory does have a certain decline. In June, the purchasing volume index was 50.81%, and the price of electrolytic nickel rose greatly within the month. Because of its relatively abundant supply of fundamentals, the price of electrolytic nickel did not rise sharply with the electrolytic nickel. Therefore, stainless steel plants in the total demand for nickel is basically maintained, the purchase preference of nickel iron is higher, while the spot purchase of electrolytic nickel is relatively depressed.

The initial value of PMI composite index of stainless steel industry in July is 45.95%, which is lower than the line of prosperity and decline, and is expected to change little compared with June. The initial value of the production index is 42.41%, and the new order index is 42.41%. Since the middle and late June of the traditional off-season, some stainless steel plants have begun partial maintenance, which has a certain impact on the output, and the downstream demand will also show a weakening trend. The initial purchase volume index for July is 50%, which is expected to change little compared with June. Although the output has changed slightly, it will not obviously affect the overall purchasing rhythm of stainless steel plants. Purchase price index 25.96%, six-month nickel price rise deviated from the fundamentals, after the withdrawal of futures bulls, stainless steel plants are more bearish on July nickel prices.

The final value of PMI composite index of electroplating industry in June was 49.85%, slightly lower than the line of prosperity and decline, basically in line with expectations. The electroplating industry basically started normal in June, and the comprehensive indexes of production index and new order index in June were 49.73%, which was basically stable compared with May, and there was no obvious bright spot in the downstream consumption of electroplating. Only a few small factories reported slightly poor orders in June, and the medium and large downstream feedback orders remained basically stable.

The initial value of PMI composite index of electroplating industry in July was 49.73%, of which the production index and new order index were 49.51%. According to the downstream reaction, the situation of electroplating industry converged in July and basically maintained stable production.

The final value of the alloy industry PMI composite index in June was 42.63%, which was below the line of prosperity and decline, which was 2.63% lower than that of the alloy industry PMI composite index in May. The month-on-month decrease was mainly dragged down by the production index, new order index and purchase volume index. The alloy industry production index, new order index and purchasing volume index decreased by 4.55% in June, while orders in the downstream home appliances, chemical and container industries fell slightly compared with the same period last year. The order situation of some enterprises in June was weaker than that in May, and downstream demand became lighter. Some common carbon steel plants choose maintenance because of limited production.

The initial value of the PMI composite index for the alloy industry in July was 40.9%, which is expected to be 1.44% lower than that in June. The downstream consumption of the alloy industry will fall further in July, mainly reflected in the container industry and the home appliance industry. The production index, new order index and purchase volume index are expected to fall by 2.84% to 40.9% in July from a month earlier, below the line of prosperity and decline.

The final value of the battery industry PMI composite index in June was 25.44 per cent, down 15.50 per cent from the end of the previous month and below the expected 47.60 per cent. On the one hand, the transition period of new energy subsidies is over, battery factories choose to wait and see, on the other hand, the recent safety accidents of new energy vehicles occur frequently, downstream demand is not increased. This month's production index and new order index both fell sharply, to 11.58% and 12.63%, respectively, much lower than the line of prosperity and decline.

The initial value of the battery industry PMI composite index in July was 41.43%, which continues to be below the line of prosperity and decline, and the weakness of demand is expected to continue to drag down the production index and the new order index.

The final value of the PMI composite index for other industries was 49.62% in June, below the line for the first time in four months, down 1.71% from the previous month and below the expected 50.75%. In other industries, including nickel wire and nickel mesh, the index of new orders fell below the line to 43.15 percent, while exports remained depressed, with an export index of 40.43 percent, below the line.

The initial value of the PMI composite index for other industries is expected to be 47.81% in July, or production index has been dragged down due to poor orders.

Initial value of PMI downstream of nickel in July:

The initial value of PMI in the lower reaches of nickel in July was 45.78%, which was 2.02% higher than the final value in June.

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