[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 628: the Ministry of Environmental Protection reiterated the ban on environmental protection across the board, and iron ore hit a new high.

In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed 64 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 4065 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed up 56 yuan / ton at 3953 yuan / ton; I1909 closed 17 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 838.5 yuan / ton; J1909 closed 16.5 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 2071 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 3.42 million transactions, an increase of 91700 to 2.56 million; I1909, 2.35 million, an increase of 59400 to 1.77 million; in terms of capital flows, the net inflow of RB1910 funds today was 425 million yuan; and the net inflow of I1909 funds was 632 million yuan.

Viewpoint: high shock. Today, after the Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection reiterated the ban on environmental protection and production restrictions, market concerns about iron ore demand eased and iron ore prices rebounded sharply. Today, the I1909 contract hit a new high of 844 yuan per ton. At present, the general pattern of iron ore fundamentals has not changed. The realization of supply contraction expectations and the continuous decline in inventories reflect the strength of its fundamentals. In addition, the disk is still in a state of high discount. Form a strong support for the price. As far as finished materials are concerned, the speed of social thread inventory has slowed down this week, while the factory warehouse has declined, the overall expectation is better, and the shrinkage of the supply side has gradually become a reality. In the later stage, environmental protection still has the possibility of increasing the suppression of supply, and the disk surface has been supported. However, at present, the thread base difference has shrunk to 48 yuan / ton, and the hot coil has seen a small increase in water, which restricts the price. Further gains in the market also need to be driven by a stronger spot. In terms of coke, after the steel mills in Hebei area raised and lowered coke, many steel mills began to follow up on the second round of raising and lowering, and some coke enterprises have accepted the price reduction. In addition, the operating rate of coking plants continues to rise, and the inventory of coke enterprises is also accumulating. It is expected that the short-term coke price will still be weak, but with the second round of raising and lowering short interest, the price further downward space is limited, and the decline can be stopped.

Strategy: RB1910 contract to see the range (3900, 4150); I1909 contract to look at the range (750860), more single Fenggao reduction, fall back and then pick up, rolling operation.

Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.