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Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.6.24 to 2019.6.28)
Jun 28,2019 19:42CST
translation
Source:SMM
Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.6.24 to 2019.6.28)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, June 28 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

This week, senior executives in junior high school and the United States resumed dialogue to boost market sentiment. The Federal Reserve continued its dovish remarks. The expectation of a rate cut in July shook the dollar at a low level around 96 points. Non-ferrous metals were raised before the week. On the occasion of the G20 meeting, the cautious mood faced settlement in the middle of the year and at the end of the month. The bulls entered the market at the beginning of the week to avoid profits and risk aversion, which prevented the basic metals from falling back after they rushed higher. Spot is due to the mid-year settlement to strengthen the willingness to cash out, resulting in the suppression of transactions, SMMI rose more than 1% in the week after the rise to 0.32%. Within the week nickel continued to maintain a strong state, from US $12000 four consecutive Yang Chong higher than US $12700 / ton, a weekly increase of nearly 5%, Shanghai nickel rose, Monday on the station after 100000 yuan / ton, blocked 102000 yuan / ton, although not as strong as Lennie, but also increased 3.7%, spot in the fear of high sentiment and mid-year settlement capital pressure, the transaction is light, SMMI.Ni weekly up 3.39%. Lun Zinc broke through the recent moving average and fell back after breaking through US $2550 / ton. Shanghai zinc rose first and then suppressed, pushed up 20200 yuan / ton and reduced its position. The spot discount was magnified day by day, the transaction activity gradually decreased, and SMMI.Zn rose 0.4 per cent per week. Lun Copper fluctuated near the US $6000 pass, while Shanghai copper struggled around 47000 yuan / ton. The spot water rise was stable, but the transaction has been in a state of stalemate between supply and demand, with SMMI.Cu rising 0.32 per cent per week. Aluminum, tin and lead is weak, SMMI.Al weekly drop 0.5%, Shanghai aluminum first raise and then suppress, walk a inverted V, spot also because of semi-annual settlement, the transaction is light, the small rising water pattern is gradually weakened. Shanghai tin has been crawling in the low position of 143000 yuan for nearly two weeks, it is difficult to get out of the trough area, spot due to mid-year settlement led to weak supply and demand, rising discount water to maintain stability, SMMI.Sn weekly decline of 0.35 per cent. Shanghai lead to maintain 16000 to 16250 yuan interval concussion pattern, but spot due to the weakness of terminal storage enterprises, smelter cash willingness to lead to the gradual expansion of spot discount, spot weakness is obvious, SMMI.Pb weekly decline of 0.16%. The leaders of China and the United States will meet at the G20 summit over the weekend. The markets are waiting for the results of the talks, and the mood of caution is widespread. Next week, as we enter July, there will be a large concentration of domestic and foreign economic data, and the dollar index may return to a low level. Basic metals still face various risks. If the variety itself has a strong fundamentals, it can still maintain a more pattern, and the differentiation of basic metals will still be obvious.

 

Copper: the performance of Lun Copper this week rose and fell back. At the beginning of the week, as a result of a new round of trade talks between Chinese and US leaders during the G20 meeting, the macro trade mood improved, the US dollar fell below the 96 mark, superimposed the recent intensified conflict between the United States and Iraq, and the market expected crude oil supply to be affected. The US crude oil stocks announced this week dropped sharply, reaching an all-time high, pushing crude oil sharply higher to near the US $60 / barrel mark, and multiple advantages stimulated copper prices to rise positively. In addition to the positive macro-mood, the recent frequent copper mine accidents abroad, the strike at the Chuquicamata copper mine in Chile and the levying of mining taxes by the Zambian government on a number of domestic mining enterprises have attracted bulls to take advantage of the opportunity to do more on the low side. Copper prices have risen from US $5914.5 / ton at the beginning of the week to US $6063.5 / ton, and the center of gravity of Zhou du K Line has smoothly stood on the 5-day moving average. But then the United States warned that if the summit failed to make progress on the trade agreement, it would impose a large number of tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States, and the dollar rose as the market gradually digested the mood of expected interest rate cuts in the near future. Copper prices fell back under pressure and fluctuated near the $6000 / ton pass, and there was a risk of a dead fork signal at the opening of the KDJ index. Lun Copper increased its position mainly by bulls this week, with its position increased by 446 to 299000.

Shanghai copper also showed a strong upward momentum this week. Due to the opportunity for a turn for the better in the global trading environment in the middle of the week, short sellers took a risk to leave the market, copper prices rose strongly from a low of 46660 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 47530 yuan / ton, the K line closed in the middle of the week, and the high performance continued to be impulsive enough, and then the Sino-US negotiations made the market fall back cautiously, and the domestic consumer faced the off-season demand, the inventory pressure increased, the contract price spread widened in recent months, and the high copper price fell back. The daily K line lost its 40-day EMA support, the lower shadow line went down to the 10-day EMA, the KDJ index expanded at a high level, and the technical support became weak. This week, the overall trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index fell 262000 hands to 1.17 million hands, while position volume increased by 9084 hands to 598000 hands, mainly by bulls. Although the spot market this week gradually appears next month ticket quotation, but the market transaction at the beginning of the week still revolves around relying on the demand of the current month's invoice, the price difference between the next month's ticket and the current month's invoice is about 20 yuan / ton. Due to the existence of long single demand before the 25th, the holder quoted a firm price of 20 yuan per ton of water, and the supply and demand sides fell into a stalemate. Subsequently, some large enterprises in the completion of the long order, enterprises gradually into the middle of the year and the end of the month settlement, trade activity and daily decline, trading performance cautious, and a sharp rebound in copper prices, so that downstream fear of high, consumption is weak, spot quotations appear small discount, next month ticket weekend has a small discount, quoted to the discount 10-liter water 50 yuan / ton.

 

Aluminum: this week, Lun Aluminum was promoted before it was suppressed. At the beginning of the week, due to the existence of strong expectations of the Fed's future interest rate cut in the telephone superimposed market between China and the United States, the macro atmosphere warmed up. The dollar index continued to fall from its high last week to this week's low of 95.842, and all external metals were boosted. Under the background of the continuous reduction in LME aluminum metal stocks, Lun Aluminum gained strength from a low of US $1770 / ton, recording three consecutive Suns, breaking through the 60-day moving average above and hitting a high of US $1838 per ton. Refresh the highest level since mid-May, but as the market changed its attitude and waited again, aluminum prices lost short-term news stimulus, and it was difficult to go up again when their fundamentals were too empty, and then began to fall back to their highs. As of 16:40 on Friday, Lun Aluminum had recorded two more negative days, closing at US $1790.5 / ton. Zhou K Line recorded a Xiaoyang line, with its center of gravity moving up from last week, but still located in the lower track range of Brin Channel. This week's position reduction of 11379 hands to 664000 hands, short position reduction, weekly KDJ three-line convergence upward, but given the large number of macro data next week and the uncertainty of the G20 summit results, Lunal is expected to have limited upward space next week.

The 1908 contract of Shanghai Aluminium Company fell higher this week. At the beginning of the week, as a result of the telephone conversation between the leaders of the trade negotiations between China and the United States, they agreed to continue to communicate and release good signals. Coupled with the expected signal from the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the future, the US Index fell back, the macro atmosphere improved, the metal turned red across the board, and aluminum prices rose in the footsteps of other metals. From the low of 13750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it reached the highest level of 13945 yuan / ton in the middle of the week on Thursday. Adjacent to the weekend, because of the opening of the G20 summit, Macro atmosphere turned to wait and see, especially concerned about the final outcome of the Sino-US trade agreement, the early macro good news was digested, aluminum prices began to fall back at a high level, falling more than 100 yuan a day, low hit 13780 yuan / ton low, give up most of the increase at the beginning of the week, the Japanese K line returned to below the 5-day moving average. This week K line closed at the Xiaoyang line, the center of gravity is basically the same as last week, above the pressure on 5-20-40 daily average, trading volume increased by 7410 hands to 627000 hands, position decreased by 24694 hands to 244000 hands, short positions mainly, but the operation on Friday is weak, Zhou du KDJ third line continues to go down, MACD line from red to green. As the fundamental state of Shanghai Aluminum itself is still empty, if there is no big macro news boost next week, it is expected to continue to be weak and run below 10, 000.

Spot trading on the 5th of this week was flat from Monday to Wednesday, worse on Thursday and better on Friday. The spot transaction price in Shanghai is between 13790 yuan / ton and 13930 yuan / ton, and the discount is concentrated between 10 yuan / ton and 10 yuan / ton. The average weekly price is slightly higher than last week. Wuxi transaction price is between 13800 yuan / ton and 13930 yuan / ton, and Hangzhou transaction price is between 13830 yuan / ton and 13830 yuan / ton, respectively. the trading price in Wuxi is between 13800 yuan and 13930 yuan / ton, and the transaction price in Hangzhou is between 13830 yuan and 13960 yuan / ton. Near the end of June or the middle of the year, some traders or downstream manufacturers due to the settlement of accounts or the production of semi-annual reports to consider, business volume or procurement volume plan to reduce, this week spot discount slightly expanded. There are plenty of tickets in the first few days of the week and next month, with a price difference of about 10 yuan per ton, nearing the end of the month on Friday, and tickets will begin to dominate next month. As a result of the disk hanging upside down superimposed rising water state has not changed, the first four days of cargo holders are very active, traders and middlemen are more active, but the actual transaction is general, Friday because the spot price fell more than 100 yuan than the previous day, the holder cherished the sale, the quotation began to be firm, the middleman's willingness to replenish and receive goods at a low price was significantly increased, and the receiver began to occupy the mainstream and the transaction was better. This week, downstream manufacturers in the first four days to rigid demand delivery, Friday due to weekend inventory superimposed recognized low prices, the volume of delivery increased significantly compared with previous days.

 

Lead: this week, Lun lead still maintained a strong upward momentum, with a weekly close of 4 Lianyang, the logic of which is still driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, coupled with the fact that the current LME lead inventory is in a low position, stimulating long buying, briefly reviewing the market this week. At the beginning of the week, the bulls launched an offensive, Lun lead broke through the platform and reached a high of US $1944.5 per ton at one time, brushing the highest level in the last two months, in the next few days. Lun lead slowed its upward slope under the influence of geopolitical turmoil, but still moved along the 5-day moving average, rising 1.57 per cent a week to $1938.5 a tonne as of Friday. A lot of more important economic data will be released next week. Because the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July, if the US economic data is more pessimistic next week, or if the market increases its expectations for a rate cut in July, the short-term US index will be weaker in the short term. At the same time, in terms of technology, the short-term technical indicators of Lun and lead show a clear bullish arrangement on the 5th, 10th and 20th EMA, but there is one problem to be cautious about. The current LME lead 0-3 liter discount structure returns to contango, or indicates that the overseas squeeze market may come to an end in the future. Based on the above analysis, we give a cautious bullish view on lead next week, with an estimated range of $1890 to $1960 / ton.

This week, Shanghai lead trend and Lun lead deviation, the performance of high pressure down, mainly due to the domestic lead fundamentals are pessimistic, funds to high-altitude lead-based. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead was once as low as 15910 yuan / ton, and then the news of Yuguang maintenance spread in the market. Some short sellers temporarily left the field to wait and see in order to keep profits. At the same time, they also attracted some speculative bulls to enter the market. Under the joint efforts of the two forces, Shanghai lead exploration went low near the platform of 16300 yuan / ton. However, the good times were not long. In the short position, it was found that even if Yuguang overhauled, it could not reverse the weakness of the fundamentals, and the short positions re-entered the market. In the next few days, Shanghai lead weakened continuously and gave back its gains at the beginning of the week, during which it broke through the 10,000 mark at one point. As of Friday, Shanghai lead 1908 contract reported at 16020 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.34%, and the main position increased by more than 10,000 hands. In terms of domestic data next week, China's official manufacturing PMI in June (expected to be 49.5 before 49.40), the final value of China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June, and China's foreign exchange reserves in June (US $100 million). According to domestic data, the manufacturing PMI forecast for June remains pessimistic, focusing on whether there will be any new news on domestic monetary and fiscal policy, and focusing on the news of trade progress at this weekend's G20 meeting. Technically, lead prices still do not get rid of 15900 to 16300 range shock, now whether the upper pressure level or the lower support level, according to the need to cooperate with the fundamentals of the expected difference to break, the current fundamentals are still pessimistic, so overall, next week lead prices are cautious and weak, the range is expected to be 15900 to 16200 yuan / ton.

This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is between 16000 and 16250 yuan per ton. Lead prices rose and fell this week, but terminal consumption did not improve, storage enterprises to sell production, market trading is bleak; primary lead, this week due to Henan Yuguang and Minshan began maintenance, Henan area bulk order discount price slightly narrowed, as of Friday, refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price to 80 yuan / ton. Trade market is also weak, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation for 1907 contract flat water to 50 yuan / ton of water; recycled lead, due to the terminal consumption downturn, renewable enterprises can only continue to expand the water in the market transaction, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled lead on the SMM1# lead average price of 200,150 yuan / ton factory.

 

Zinc: this week, the zinc rush back down, cautiously waiting for macro guidance. At the beginning of the week, macro optimism is still high, non-ferrous metals are generally strong, and the collocation of high Back and low inventory of zinc has become an effective support for bulls. Lun Zinc recorded a 5, 10, 20 day moving average of 2553 US dollars / ton on two Lianyang stations, followed by renewed twists and turns in the economic and trade prospects between China and the United States. The market risk aversion mood significantly warmed up, the activity of zinc trading dropped and Back declined rapidly, and the zinc inventory of LME recorded a continuous increase and returned to more than 100000 tons. Bearish pressure on the return of more than half of the week to 2485 U. S. dollars / ton of sorting around the operation, carefully waiting for macro guidance. As of Friday, trading volume fell 5855 hands to 46651, while positions rose 6197 to 265000.

Shanghai zinc this week to adjust the expected difference, Shanghai zinc main 1908 contract high after unable to stand firm. At the beginning of the week, due to the active replenishment of the lower reaches of the warehouse, the social inventory of zinc did not show accumulation; at the same time, the cancellation of nearly 15000 tons of warehouse receipts made the market worried about holding positions in July. And the northern refineries will carry out routine maintenance from July to August, and the growth rate of domestic refined zinc supply will slow down. The basic micro-positive superimposed optimistic macro sentiment, the market bullish mood obviously warmed up, Shanghai zinc warehouse reduction upward, 3 Lianyang broke through the 20-day EMA pressure reached 20180 yuan / ton, however, after the zinc rose, the spot market cooled significantly, and the imbalance between supply and demand was exposed again. At the same time, the funds before the G20 summit were more cautious to wait and wait. The zinc operation center of gravity fell again to 20000 yuan / ton gate, and stepped down to 19800 yuan / ton or so. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index fell 679000 hands to 3.295 million hands, and positions fell 52510 hands to 622000 hands.

This week, Shanghai market 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract from 40 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton discount 60-discount 40 yuan / ton; Shuangyan, Chihong rising water 80 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton-flat water, import SMC, Spain, India to 0 # domestic zinc discount 50-10 yuan / ton.

At the end of this week, the pressure on the capital surface is slightly reflected, while the new long order between traders has just begun, and every rise in the lower reaches is dominated by digestion and inventory, rapid cooling of consumption, deepening imbalance between supply and demand, increasing pressure on rising and sticking water, and a stronger willingness to ship goods. In the morning market, the competitive price adjustment increased, and the daily decline rate of rising water at the beginning of the week was about 40 to 50 yuan / ton. After turning into the discount of 50 yuan / ton in the second half of the week, the enthusiasm of the market to continue to reduce prices weakened, and the supply and demand sides deadlocked. The main trading volume was contributed to the long order transaction in the morning market, and then the transaction was light, and the overall transaction dropped more obviously than last week.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1908 contract rose 140 yuan to 160 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market from 80 yuan / ton discount to Pingshui near. This week the refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant. Demand for long orders this week was concentrated after Wednesday, which coincided with the expiration of more long orders last month, supplemented by a new round of long orders. But the downstream purchase demand is not good, mainly because the zinc price falls in the early stage, there are more stocks when the zinc price falls, the subsequent consumption purchase quantity is overdrawn, the superimposed downstream order is gradually worse, and the order quantity of many die-casting zinc alloy enterprises is obviously lower than that of last week, and the willingness to receive goods is not good. Overall, this week, in addition to Wednesday part of the long single demand contributed to a certain market trading, the actual consumption downstream has not improved, the overall contribution of trading volume is very limited, overall, the transaction is relatively flat this week, worse than last week.

This week, Tianjin 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract rising water near 50 100 yuan / ton, Tianjin market increased from 60 yuan / ton last week to about 100 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the circulation of goods in Tianjin market was relatively small, mainly due to the fact that some downstream manufacturers picked up goods from the warehouse at the end of the week, resulting in a decline in warehouse volume, but refinery shipments were still on the way, resulting in a shortage of market supplies and a strong willingness of the holders to hold up prices. The quotations focused on the 1907 contract liter water 150 to 290 yuan / ton, the shipment was relatively smooth, but due to the shortage of supply, the transaction volume was not much. Since Wednesday, some of the goods have gradually arrived at the warehouse and circulated in the market, and the circulation of the market has turned to be abundant. Until Friday, the spot rising water dropped from 150 to 290 yuan / ton to about 50 to 100 yuan / ton, but the willingness to receive goods downstream became weaker. The main reason is that when the zinc price went down last week, the lower reaches bought more to replenish the stock volume, or to a certain extent overdrawn part of the follow-up consumption, so the spot water rise is difficult to maintain and decline rapidly. This week's transactions are mainly low-priced sources of goods, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively flat, the overall transaction situation has improved compared with last week.

 

Tin: this week Lunxi maintained a weak consolidation, the center of gravity has moved down, the daily line level gradually below all averages. Under the influence of the continuous increase in Lunxi stocks, the recovery of the dollar index during the week and the uncertainty of the G20 summit meeting between China and the United States, Lunxi overall maintained a weak trend of shock. The weekly MACD index is more normal, but the KDJ index stepped into the oversold area; the angle between 10 and 40 EMA is too large, so the possibility of further pullback of Lunxi technology should be cautious in the short term. At present, Lunxi trading volume of 1158 hands, a decrease of 94 hands. Position 15660 hands, reduced 361hands.

This week Shanghai tin showed a concussion trend, shock range high and low down. During the week, Shanghai tin was mainly guided by short forces. At the beginning of the week, short positions suppressed the decline of tin Changyin in Shanghai, and short positions took profits, and disk positions went up. Subsequently, as a result of the short position again, the Shanghai tin center of gravity moved down. From the weekly level to close with the negative line this week, the center of gravity has moved down, Friday's closing price will soon reach the weekly level Brin channel track around 142200 yuan / ton, KDJ indicators into the oversold area, there is further downward pressure in the short term. The week closed at 143110 yuan per ton, down 1190 yuan from last week. The turnover was 57384. Increase by 3204 hands. The position was 43800 hands, an increase of 2268 hands.

This week, spot prices in Shanghai and tin followed the overall volatility of the market, Friday spot prices in Shanghai and tin 142500 144000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the overall transaction was slightly better than in the later period. This week, only the supply of low-priced small brands was favored by the market, and some downstream enterprises purchased a small amount of goods, but then, due to the end of the month, the Shanghai-tin spot market gradually weakened. Liter discount this week is generally stable, Friday set cloud tin liter water 200 yuan / ton-flat water, ordinary cloud word sticker 600 to 700 yuan / ton, small brand discount 800 to 1000 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: following a sharp fall in the dollar to around 96.2 from 97.7 last week, the dollar is at a full-week low this week, and the dollar has been weak recently, mainly due to expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The external market has been strong this week, mainly due to the recovery of macro atmosphere and the accident at Glencore's nickel pig iron plant, showing a stepped four-continuous yang from Monday to Thursday, with nickel rising from a maximum of $12000 per ton to $12770 per tonne, refreshing the previous high of $12495 per tonne and running above the multi-track moving average to the upper rail boundary of the Brin track. On Friday, it was blocked by a high, consolidation around $12700 a tonne. Lennie closed at the Dayang line this week, increasing its position by 714 tons to 270000 tons, and KDJ opened its mouth upward.

Shanghai nickel rose this week, rebounding from 98000 yuan / ton to around 99000 yuan / ton in the first half of the week. It closed at Cross on Wednesday and fell back from a high of 101000 yuan per ton. The second half of the week to continue the early rally, refresh the previous high, a high of 102360 yuan / ton. In the near future, mainly affected by macro warming, nickel price trend is strong. At the same time, on the fundamentals, Glencore nickel iron plant accident, and stainless steel storage situation for the fundamentals of the mood has a certain support. Focus on the progress of trade negotiations between China and the United States at the G20 summit on Friday and Saturday, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of cutting interest rates. Shanghai nickel closed at the Dayang line this week, reducing its position by 39000 to 203000, while trading volume increased by 835000 to 3.695 million, with KDJ opening upward.

Spot transactions and rising discount, starting this week, the market basically reported Russian nickel, Jinchuan nickel rising discount. SMM is the market, mainly based on the analysis of Shanghai nickel discount. This week, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1907 contract since Monday discount 200 yuan / ton continue to expand, Friday has been reported discount 600-discount 500 yuan / ton, but the transaction is still not ideal, mainly because the spot market supply is sufficient, and downstream due to higher prices, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and close to the semi-annual settlement, capital pressure leads to light spot trading. Part of the rigid demand to take goods customers in the disk 9.89 yuan / ton and 100500 yuan / ton near a small amount of replenishment. Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1907 contract rising water is relatively stable, this week basically rising water 1000 yuan / ton. Although the spot market transaction is flat, but this week Jinchuan company to produce nickel, No. 1 electrolytic nickel supply is not much, rising water is strong. Next week is the second half of the year, the first half of the week is expected to wait and see, the second half of the week is expected to be sold or improved, next week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 or discount water 600 yuan / ton to discount 300 yuan / ton, Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract water 1000 to 1300 yuan / ton.

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