[2019.6.28 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] Shanghai nickel four Lianyang wait and see G20 summit guidelines

Macro: on June 27, the financial data of industrial enterprises released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May 2019, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 1.1% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive (down 3.7% from a year earlier in April). Us GDP grew 3.1 per cent in the first quarter, in line with market expectations; US jobless claims fell more than expected last week, with initial jobless claims falling 6000 in the week to June 15. Today, we will focus on the G20 summit meeting, which opened in Osaka, Japan. On the data side, we focus on the initial annual rate of CPI in June in the euro area; the monthly rate of personal spending in the United States in May, the monthly rate of the core PCE price index in May, and the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer confidence Index in June in Chicago and June in the United States.

Spot nickel market: June 27, SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 100800 102500 yuan / ton. The discount of Russian nickel is about 300yuan / ton compared with Shanghai nickel 1908. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally reported a water rise of 1300 yuan / ton. Compared with Wuxi 1907 contract, Russian nickel generally reported a discount of 200 yuan to 100 yuan per ton, and Jinchuan nickel generally reported a rise of 1500 yuan per ton compared with Wuxi 1907 contract. Early trading hours, the price around 101000 yuan / ton shock, Russian nickel shipment is more difficult, Jinchuan nickel basically rising water 1200 yuan / ton transactions. The second trading period, Russian nickel holders continue to reduce Russian nickel sticker, but the effect is very small. Jinchuan nickel rising water is strong, supply and demand are weak. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan nickel is 102300 yuan / ton, 1300 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, and the mainstream transaction is 100800,102500 yuan / ton. After a brief shock in the afternoon, the market fell back to 101200 yuan / ton, close to the half-year settlement, the market is basically wait-and-see, the mainstream transaction at 100700 to 102500 yuan / ton.

Stainless steel market: on the morning of June 27, the cold and hot rolling guidance prices of stainless steel plants were raised by 50 yuan / ton. According to SMM research, the prices of state-owned 304-2B rough edge rolls in Wuxi market are 14450-14550 yuan / ton, private 304-2B rough edge rolls are 14200-14250 yuan / ton, and Dongte 304 / NO. 15 feet are quoted at 13600 yuan / t-13700 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, due to the rise of nickel inside and outside the market, the agent quoted price generally increased by 50 yuan / ton.

In terms of stocks: nickel stocks were 165500 tons on 27 June, an increase of 642 tons over 26 June.

The judgment of nickel price: the back structure of Shanghai nickel 1907 and 1908 contracts has basically disappeared, and the possibility of closing positions in 07 contracts is very low. After 08, the contracts are back structure, and the price difference is also narrower than before. Nickel prices have experienced a week of upsurge, many times break through the platform resistance level, in the short term or will continue to maintain a strong market. However, there is a difference between the strength of the market and the spot market, and the room for continuation is limited. Wait and see the possibility of profit-taking by bulls near the 103000 pass.