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[SMM Black Review] Don't worry about the ignorance of the road ahead. Who in the world doesn't know the "price"?
Jun 26,2019 18:06CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Do not worry about the road ahead ignorance, who in the world do not know the "price"


Current Review (26 June)



< 1 > spot aspect.


Today's steel market prices are generally stable: individual regions are mixed, most regions are stable; East China region Hangzhou fell 30%, Shanghai is weak and stable. Trading volume: overall is OK. At the time of writing, the price of steel billet in Tangshan area stabilized to 3600 yuan / ton (the lowest increase of 3410 yuan / ton so far).


Market mentality: pick wild flowers by the fence and inadvertently see Nanshan.



Phase II steel.


Black system: overall high conditioning, the end of the material is stronger than the end of the raw material.



RB1910 main contract:


During the day, there was a huge reduction in positions and tail positions to 160000 hands, with a strong shock between 3966 and 4013 during the day and a close of 3998. The main organization has a net increase of 4700 hands per day.


HC1910 main contract:


During the day, there was a substantial increase in positions and tail positions to 20410 hands, with a strong concussion between 3944 and 3896 and a close of 3916. The main organization within the day net multi-empty phase left, net more than 70 hands.


Iron ore l1909 main contract:


During the day, a huge reduction in positions, tail positions to 50040 hands, in the day between 799 and 808 between the bottom rebound, tail, close 804. The main organization within a day net more than 20909 hands (only Yongan net more than 19901 hands).



Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:


During the day, a small increase in positions, tail positions to 11444 hands, in the day between 2082.5 and 2118.5 concussion rebound, closing 2105.5. The main organization has a net increase of 5257 hands per day.


Coking coal JM1909 main contract:


During the day, a small reduction, tail reduction to 7030 hands, within the day between 1381 and 1389 narrow range strong shock, closing 1378.5. The main organization within a day net single 399 hands.


Forecast for tomorrow.


1. Spot: the probability of early weakness and strong afternoon is large.


two。 Futures:


RB1910 main contract: between 3880 and 4030 concussion.


HC1910 main contract: between 3830 and 3950 concussion.


Iron ore l1909 main contract: between 770 and 815 concussion.


Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2050 and 2130 concussion.


Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1410 concussion.


< 4 > advice for current operation: maintain the same.


1. On the spot side:

In practice, the author recommends that those who have completed the replenishment of inventory at a low price:

It is appropriate for smooth rolling operation that the appropriate amount of output is greater than the input, and the right amount of the low is greater than the output of the smooth rolling operation.

Tardy: looking back can make up the right amount of inventory, although it is still too late.


two。 Futures.


In terms of the end of the finished product:

Short rhythm: every high stop to leave the field, the upper edge of the value near the empty single appropriate amount of intervention; the lower edge of the trend near the single and then gradually involved. Do not dance with the hindsight of riding a wall, it is not advisable to chase up and down.



On the raw material side.


Iron ore L1909 contract: within the range, every along the value near the empty, the lower value near the cloth more. Fast in and out.



Demon Jiao J1909 contract:

The first round of lifting and landing basically landed.

It is appropriate to throw high and low absorption in the range of 2050 to 2130.


Coking coal JM1909 contract: maintain the same.

It is appropriate to wait and see or intervene in the vicinity of the value (although the author says that it is still tasteless to eat in the vicinity of the value).


< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. The ten-day price of Fujian Sangang is stable.


two。 Pay attention to the sunrise of inventory data tomorrow: it is expected that the stock will be difficult to continue, and the probability of double decline is high.


3. Raw material end.

Iron ore:

The arrival volume is expected to be 11.06 million tons from June 16 to 22, down 1.38 million tons from the previous period, according to SMM Nonferrous Network data. Spot price fell 5 yuan to 840 yuan / ton, advance price 830 to 833 yuan / ton (62%PB powder). The discount of stage ore is 109 yuan / ton, and the stage mine is supported by deep discount, and the probability is in the range of 770 to 815.



The market for Shanxi environmental protection production restrictions are more looking forward to superimposed steel enterprise profit repair on the road, the second round of raising and lowering the probability of stillbirth, the third round of price increases are on the line. Low cloth should be a good option, the author especially for the fourth quarter of the raw material demand is more expected.


4. Qilianyang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., has stepped into the author's forward-looking forecast range along the value, has risen three types of brand spot, spot rebound range has not been peer. Although today strong concussion, huge reduction of positions, short rhythm uplink space is limited. Every high short space, more stable option.


With words and information from Monday to Tuesday.

1. Tangshan pass:

Tangshan Municipal Government: supervisors have been stationed in iron and steel enterprises on the 24th of this month to supervise and suspend production restrictions on schedule.

two。 Environmental protection and production restriction

This round of environmental protection to limit production thunderstorm counterparts, the scope is not limited to Tangshan area; follow-up attention to thread production in Jiangsu Province; for details, see SMM Nonferrous Network report, do not repeat.

Friendly reminder: environmental protection to limit production is not only limited to the long process, the short process is also within range.

3. Those who are late in spot and future steel are advised.

Although the trend is unstoppable, the steel EMA deviates seriously. Wait for a look back and dare to come into play again, the high chase needs to be cautious.



With yesterday's heart words and information.


1. The author's forward-looking forecast:

Downward trend: the resistance fell in May, and it was smoother in the first and middle of June; time and space dimension: 300 + 30, 45 days. Landed on schedule.

Rebound trend: there is a good chance of starting a rebound from the end of June to the first ten days of July. Expectations are on the way, wait and see!

As for the forward-looking forecast of environmental protection and production restriction: the next "moderate rain" falls to the ground. It's an accident, it's inevitable! I don't know!


two。 The production and iron ore demand reduction affected by environmental protection and production restrictions can be found in the SMM Nonferrous Network report.

The limited production (by landing) in Tangshan alone affects the rough estimated output of about 4.08 million tons per month, and the demand for iron ore is reduced by about 7 million tons per month. As for the other regions, the probability of falling to the ground gradually. Diamond price is easy, Yongan seat is far away and close, what does it mean?! Don't be trapped.


The 3.G20 summit will be held in Osaka, Japan, on June 28 and 29. Pay attention to the handshake between the heads of state of China and the United States!


4. The scale of local bond issuance has further accelerated, with a high probability of 900 billion yuan on its back in June.


5. The rebound is on the way and will not collapse, but the trend is difficult to reverse. It is particularly important to grasp the rhythm.



The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see the outlook for the steel market in June and the weekly review on June 14 and 21.


Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781


(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)



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