SMM, June 23-since the middle of June, some governments in Henan Province have asked local carbon enterprises to limit production. Among them, Zhengzhou has implemented wrong peak production since June 15, and Jiaozuo area has limited production by 30% for one month at the beginning. According to the SMM survey, most of the relevant enterprises are still in normal production and have not been affected. As the environmental protection becomes stricter and the production of carbon enterprises becomes more and more normal, how will the commercial anode market be affected in the second half of the year? SMM will be analyzed from both sides of supply and demand.
On the supply side, the national commercial anode start-up rate was 64.33% in May, and the commercial prebaked anode start-up rate in Henan, where the environmental protection inspection was the most stringent, was only 32%, the lowest level among the provinces in the country. However, several waves of environmental protection instructions have greatly weakened the productivity of commercial prebaked anodes in the province, and carbon enterprises with losses or substandard emissions have withdrawn from the commercial prebaked anode market. and most of the domestic carbon enterprises still producing anodes have completed the transformation of ultra-low emissions, so the current environmental protection and production restrictions will not seriously deal a blow to the already depressed starting rate of commercial anodes. In addition, the supporting new anode production capacity of the aluminum plant will be put into production one after another in the second half of the year (such as 350000 tons of Fushun Aluminum Industry, 200000 tons of Yunnan Aluminum, 280000 tons of new materials in Shanxi, etc.). It is also contributing to the increment of domestic prebaked anode supply.
On the demand side, the speed of new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is relatively slow, a small number of aluminum plants in March-May anode prices at a historical low when a large number of anodes, but in June, aluminum plants basically on-demand procurement, there is no previous large number of reserve behavior. And has been two rounds of heating season to stop production of the "baptism", this winter electrolytic aluminum plant will not appear before the phenomenon of panic stock.
Therefore, SMM expects anode pricing will still be based on cost, in the context of oversupply, is still in the buyer's market, and it is difficult for environmental protection to stop production again.