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Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.6.17 to 2019.6.21)
Jun 21,2019 19:41CST
translation
Source:SMM
Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.6.17 to 2019.6.21)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, June 21 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

High-level dialogue between China and the United States resumed this week, with a brief boost to market sentiment, while the Federal Reserve meeting announced that interest rates would remain unchanged in June, but removed the word "patience" and expectations of a rate cut for the year were raised. While tensions in the Middle East continued, the center of gravity of the rebound in crude oil shifted upward, and on the whole, the market risk preference obviously warmed up, leading to the recovery of low levels of non-ferrous metals, but the fundamentals of supply and demand were still not too optimistic, the spot performance was still suppressed, and the weekly SMMI was still down 0.47%. Among them, only copper maintained a rally, SMMI.Cu rose 0.88%, copper futures at home and abroad were in a hurry to leave the market, and long positions increased to push up the low level of the disk. Spot rising water to maintain stability in the strong copper prices. Zinc prices fell sharply within the week, especially after Shanghai zinc fell below 20,000 yuan, the short lead accelerated the decline, the weekly decline was 3.78%, the holder's willingness to cash for cash increased significantly, spot water rose synchronously, SMMI.Zn fell 4.82% per week, leading all metals. Nickel rose before suppression, Shanghai nickel more than 100000, but the spot rising water is also declining, downstream fear of high, on Friday, long bag for safety, Shanghai nickel gave up gains, SMMI.Ni fell 1.25% per week. Lead is dragged down by zinc, Shanghai lead to maintain the box 16000 to 16300 yuan / stew interval shock, but the smelter appeared discount shipment, terminal storage enterprises wait and see, SMMI.Pb weekly decline of 0.62%. Shanghai aluminum blocked ten thousand four points rushed back down, spot stability, but at the end of the month, the willingness to ship increased, SMMI.Al fell 0.57 per cent per week. Shanghai and Wuxi stable 143500 to 145000 yuan / ton range concussion, spot discount closed slightly, SMMI.Sn fell 0.35% per week. There will be a lot of data from Europe and the United States next week, plus the G20 summit will be held soon, macro sentiment will still have great ups and downs, in addition, close to the end of June, each category of metal will increase the willingness to cash, spot throwing may increase, but consumption will also be more obvious, market risk performance is greater, guard against metal rush down.

Copper: Lun Copper showed a low rebound this week. Market sentiment adjusted with the pace of the Fed's rate cut this week, and the market maintained expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut to be announced this week. Although the outcome of the meeting failed to cut interest rates, the Fed finally announced a dove, pushing US stocks to rise for three consecutive times. Approaching record highs, US bond yields plummeted, federal funds rate futures showed higher expectations of a rate cut in July, and the dollar's performance plummeted. It fell from a high of 97.77 in the week to about 96.6. In addition to the Fed rate cut, President Xi spoke on the phone with the President of the United States on the 18th. Market tensions about trade between the two countries have slowed down, and he expects the leaders of the two countries to make substantial progress in trade relations between the two countries during the G20 summit. The RMB rose rapidly to around 6.83. Lun Copper took the opportunity to pull up from a low of US $5776 per ton at the beginning of the week. Over the weekend, it broke through the US $6000 / ton mark and rushed up to a high of US $6027 per ton. The weekly increase was 2.46%. The center of gravity of Lun Copper smoothly reached the middle rail of Brin, supported by multiple recent averages below, ending the weekly K-line 9 continuous negative pattern, the weekly MACD index green energy column has narrowed, and KDJ is expected to form a good gold fork in the low position and continue to be good for the price. This week, Luntong was mainly characterized by a long position increase attack after the short position was forced to evacuate, and its position increased by 24 4 hands to 299000 hands.

At the beginning of this week, the overall center of gravity of Shanghai copper remained stable at 46200 yuan / ton, during which the 46000 yuan / ton mark was lowered by 45990 yuan / tonne. Subsequently, it was also guided by the market's willingness to cut interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Especially after the easing of trade sentiment between China and the United States, the copper price center of gravity jumped and rose, and the upper high went straight to 47000 yuan / ton. The level was 47170 yuan / ton, although the high level subsequently failed to hold steady. The copper price partially vomited. However, the overall center of gravity climbed near the middle rail of Brin, and below the position of 46600 yuan / ton formed a jump gap, supported by the 5th, 10th and 20th EMA, the weekly technical indicators also showed multiple advantages. The main force increased its position by 1.1% a week. After the spot market was delivered at the beginning of the week, the spot quotation was maintained in the range of 30 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton. As traders have the demand for delivery of long orders within the week, they intend to look for low-priced goods in the market, so the holders have a strong sense of price, do not rush to reduce prices and sell goods, market trading sentiment remains deadlocked, and then the market level rises sharply, downstream fear of high sentiment highlights, high copper prices inhibit market transactions, supply and demand continue to show a state of stickiness.

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum remained volatile in the range below $1800 a tonne this week. The US dollar index rose sharply on Monday as US retail sales data performed well in May, putting pressure on all metals. Lun Aluminum hit its lowest price since January 11, 2017 to $1745 a tonne in a weak state of its own. Subsequently, due to a telephone call between the leaders of China and the United States, and Trump said he was looking forward to meeting again in Japan, the market atmosphere improved, the next day the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate resolution, doves spoke to boost the market, and the dollar fell. The outer metal turned red across the board, and the aluminum rose, with a brief high of $1807.5 a tonne, but fell below the $1800 / tonne mark again on Friday because of the pressure above. As of 16:40 on Friday, Lun closed at $1770 a tonne, while the weekly K line closed at the Xiaoyang line, with a center of gravity roughly unchanged from last week and still below all EMA, with short positions this week dominated by short positions. Due to the weak supply and demand side said last week, and this week's short-term good news is difficult to continue in the long term, is expected to maintain range volatility next week, focus on next week's dollar index and US new home sales, durable goods orders and other macro data.

Shanghai aluminum performance this week is weak and volatile. On Monday, the Shanghai Aluminum main Company 1908 contract continued to test the 13800 yuan / ton barrier, but it has always been difficult to break through the upward trend. Under the condition of the high background of the US Index superimposed by the fundamentals, the trend fell to 13760 yuan per ton. On the following three days, spurred by telephone calls between Chinese and US leaders and good news from the Federal Reserve to release the expected signal of interest rate cuts, aluminum prices recorded three consecutive positive days, with the center of gravity rising one after another, and finally broke through the 10-day moving average on Thursday. The high reached the highest point in the week of 13920 yuan per ton. However, after the short-term news was digested by the market, metals such as zinc and nickel began to fall sharply on Friday, and aluminum prices also fell against the backdrop of their own weak fundamentals. Friday trading almost gave up all its gains in the previous three days, falling more than 100. The low price of 13745 yuan / ton refreshed the lowest price since the end of March and closed at a long negative line. This week K line closed at the Xiaoyin line, recorded 5 weeks of continuous yin, position increased by 28052 hands to 269000 hands, still short to increase positions, the center of gravity fell below all EMA, Zhou du KDJ third line continued to significantly down. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain weak and volatile next week, with continued weakness in consumption and a slight downward trend in costs as a major drag.

Spot trading prices held down before noon for five consecutive days this week and then rose, and fell back again on Friday. Aluminum prices fluctuated more widely before noon three days ago, and the actual spot prices in Shanghai and Wuxi also fluctuated obviously. in addition, there was almost no price difference between the two places, but this week the price difference between the two gradually appeared and remained around 0 to 20 yuan per ton. This week, the spot price in Shanghai is between 13840 yuan and 13910 yuan per ton, and the rising water on the plate is maintained at about 10 yuan per ton from flat water. The weekly average price is nearly 140 yuan per ton compared with last week. Wuxi price is between 13840 yuan and 13920 yuan per ton, and Hangzhou price is between 13870 yuan and 13960 yuan per ton. This week disk upside down plus discount premise has not changed, in a large number of days ago did not purchase on the wire, the holder actively shipped, traders meet low replenishment and active trading with middlemen, downstream manufacturers this week a few days ago basic on-demand procurement, attitude wait-and-see, near Friday in the price fall superimposed in the case of stock demand, began to increase the purchase volume. Taking into account the downstream goods matching degree, the market as a whole a few days ago this week, there is no obvious bright spot, Friday transaction preference.

Lead: this week, Lunlead broke through the US $1900 pressure platform, and the overall focus of operation gradually shifted upward. At the beginning of this week, due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the United States, the Lunlead probe rebounded, closed for two consecutive days, and returned to the upward track. In the next few days, the Federal Reserve made another dovish speech at the meeting, and the expectation of interest rate cuts increased in the future. The US finger plummeted, boosting non-ferrous metals to gradually strengthen, but Lun lead was dragged down by domestic lead prices. Hit a high of $1933.5 / ton, then concussion fell back, temporarily stabilized above $1900, as of 15-30, Lun lead reported a 1.25% increase in 1896.5; In the macro data set of Europe and the United States next week, the expected value still shows that the global trade turmoil is still a drag on the US economy, which has provided impetus for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July. In addition, next week will focus on the dialogue between the heads of state of China and the United States at the G20 meeting. combined with next week's macro events and data, the pressure for the dollar to rise and fall will be greater, providing conditions for the stable upward rise of non-ferrous metals, but it will be confused by the trade situation, and next week will be in the middle of the settlement cycle. It is expected that the market trading activity will decline next week, the probability of capital risk aversion is high, during which the short-term upward channel of Lun lead has been opened, and there is still the possibility of breaking through the platform next week. The range is expected to range from $1870 to $1930 per ton.

The main contract of Shanghai lead was replaced to 1908 this week, and the trend of Shanghai lead was raised before suppression this week, but the overall operating range was still not separated from the 16000-16300 box. At the beginning of the week, led by the continued strength of lead in Shanghai, it closed in Sanlianyang and reached as high as 16340 yuan per ton, but the whole process of going up was accompanied by the intervention of long funds, which was slightly different from the process of rising in the past, which also gave the upward space of lead prices a certain imagination, but the good times were not long. After two days, the short funds saw that the fundamentals of lead had not been improved, coupled with the slowdown in the upward movement of lead and the entry of short positions. Shanghai lead returned to rise, finally reported at 15965 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 0.84%, the position increased by 16718 hands to 45656 hands; Next week, there are no data to focus on in China, only the profits of industrial enterprises above the size of China in May (100 million yuan) will be released. From the basic point of view of the current domestic lead, there will be no fundamental change next week, the increase of production on the supply side will continue to put pressure on lead prices, while on the terminal consumer side, passenger car sales and production are still in the process of bottoming out. Battery enterprises have begun to reduce production because of the high inventory of finished products. In this case, we still maintain the view that lead prices are cautiously weak. Therefore, the Shanghai lead 1908 contract is expected to run at 15850 to 16150 yuan per ton next week.

This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is 16050 to 16250 yuan / ton. Lead prices are low and volatile this week, terminal consumption has not improved, storage enterprises to sell production, market trading is bleak; primary lead, refinery bulk orders are generally shipped by discount, as of Friday, refinery bulk orders on the average price of SMM1# lead flat water to 100 yuan / ton. Trade market is also weak, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to 1907 contract flat water to liter water 50 yuan / ton; recycled lead, renewable lead enterprises still with discount price in the market transaction, as of Friday, recycled lead mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead price discount 150 to 100 yuan / ton factory.

Next week spot lead mainstream trading price may run at 15900 to 16150 yuan / ton. Into next week, storage enterprises are still fixed production, terminal consumption is difficult to improve, procurement to rigid demand; primary lead, Hunan Shuikoushan, Inner Mongolia Chifeng Mountain gold and silver lead production this week, but the output will be released next week. In addition, due to the downturn in downstream consumption, refinery quotations are still maintained at this week's level; on the trade side, the holder may maintain the normal shipping rhythm, and traders are expected to bid up the discount next week to maintain this week's level; in terms of recycled lead, as lead prices continue to be depressed, enterprise production profits are not high, and the original price gap for regeneration is expected to maintain this week's level. However, if the lead price breaks down, the renewable primary price difference is expected to narrow, and the mainstream trading price of recycled refined lead is 15800 to 16100 yuan / ton.

Zinc: this week, the impact of zinc fell back, above the US $2500 / ton integer gate suppression is still strong. At the beginning of the week, with the end of the domestic "squeeze out", the decline of Len Zinc was obvious at the time of the Asian disk, but the combination of high Back and low inventory was still good for Lunzinc. the superimposed macro side improved, and the bottom of Len zinc returned to rise again by breaking through the integer barrier of US $2500 / ton. however, under the conduction of internal and external fundamentals, the accumulation of overseas inventories was only a matter of time, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term was alleviated after the end of centralized delivery. After the short-term mood boost, the market focused on the actual progress of the trade negotiations, the macro positive for the weak fundamentals of Len Zinc, the downward driving force, Lun Zinc three consecutive weeks to spit out all the gains, and there is still the possibility of further exploration.

This week, high-level dialogue between China and the United States resumed, expectations of further contraction in external demand weakened, while senior levels continued to push for the expansion of domestic demand, and expectations of a further decline in economic fundamentals weakened. After the end of the "squeeze", the return to its own fundamentals Shanghai zinc broke down, once again out of all averages. On the last day of delivery at the beginning of the week, with the recovery of smelter production and close to the peak, social inventory turned to growth, and after consumption turned into the off-season, supply and demand will be further out of balance. With the closing of positions and leaving the market in that month, the monthly difference has returned to less than 200 yuan / ton, and the monthly difference has dropped from about 500 yuan / ton to less than 200 yuan / ton. the main zinc increase in Shanghai is far from 20,000 yuan, but the recovery of macro sentiment will boost the market. Zinc try to repair the center of gravity up to 20200 yuan / ton or so slightly finishing, but based on its own weak fundamentals, superimposed spot surface rising water continued to expand and highlight the contradiction of short-term supply exceeds demand, market shorting mood heats up, Shanghai zinc main force increase warehouse downward accelerated decline, refresh January low to 19405 yuan / ton, the fundamentals are not positive driving factor.

This week, the contract of 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 in Shanghai market has changed from 350 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton, and Shuangyan and Chihong have changed from 350 / 400 yuan / ton to 160 / 180 yuan / ton, and imported SMC, Spain and India to maintain a discount of 30-flat water for 0 ~ # domestic zinc.

On the last day of delivery this week, with the bulls fleeing in that month, the monthly difference between that month and the next month dropped from about 500 yuan / ton to less than 200 yuan / ton. Based on the spot return trend, on the same day, the market quotation was quickly reduced from 350 to 400 yuan / ton to about 200 to 240 yuan / ton. In the later stage, due to more occupation of warehouse receipts, coupled with the fact that the trading chief concentrated replenishment of the warehouse after the zinc period went down, there were also downside purchases in the lower reaches. Spot quotations stabilized temporarily after the release of demand, but there was no pressure on supply in the spot market, and the full interpretation of oversupply increased the buyer's right to speak. During the same period, under the gradual decline of zinc, the waiting mood in the downstream was getting stronger, and the contradiction between supply and demand intensified after the market demand cooled. By Friday, the quotation had dropped to 100 yuan to 130 yuan / ton, and the transaction became lighter day by day. However, the overall transaction volume increased slightly compared with last week.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1908 contract rose 230 to 240 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market from rising water 110 yuan / ton to discount 80 yuan / ton. This week the refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant. At the beginning of this week, at the end of the month delivery, the market is still expected for the subsequent warehouse receipt outflow, the zinc price is more bearish, the market is not willing to receive goods, Guangdong spot water is difficult to maintain, the overall July contract quoted in Pingshui to Shengshui 30 yuan / ton. Since Thursday, the downward range of the disk has been relatively large, the downstream has stopped to wait and see, the enthusiasm for receiving goods has improved, the market has turned to active trading, and the spot water rise has been maintained at about 20 to 50 yuan per ton for the July contract. Compared with last week, downstream orders have significantly improved, for the follow-up normal production of the willingness to store at a low level. Overall, the first half of the market transaction situation is flat, the second half of the market transaction situation improved, for this week's market transaction contributed to more trading volume.

This week, Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract rising water 150 to 200 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai stock market last week discount 20 yuan / ton to rising water 60 yuan / ton. During the week, the plate went down, refineries slightly cherished sales, and the circulation of goods in the market decreased slightly. When the price was higher within the week, the holder reported a rise of 210 to 400 yuan / ton in the 07 contract, and the bearish atmosphere downstream was thicker and the willingness to receive the goods was not good. When the price is low in the following week, the holder's quotation is concentrated on the 07 contract rising water 150 to 220 yuan / ton, downstream is willing to replenish the warehouse, contribute more trading volume, among them, Hongye, Chihong and other ordinary low-price brand goods as the main source of goods, Zijin and other high-priced brands because of less circulation, so the trading volume is also relatively small. On the whole, the trading atmosphere in Tianjin has heated up this week, and the transaction situation has also improved compared with last week.

Tin: this week Lunxi overall maintained the concussion finishing situation. At the beginning of the week, LME tin stocks increased by more than 1000 tons for two consecutive days, resulting in a downward trend in the European market from Monday to Tuesday, but then due to the positive news side of President Xi Jinping's appointment with US President Trang on the 18th, LME basic metals generally rose, and Lunxi rose, ending the decline brought about by the large increase in inventories in the early period. The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate resolution on Thursday, although interest rates remained stable, but Lunxi rallied because of a clear signal of a rate cut. The center of gravity fell slightly again on Friday. Zhou Nailun tin overall weak maintenance and stability, MACD indicators still show a downward trend, but low KDJ indicators formed a gold fork, the future is expected to maintain consolidation or some upward.

This week, Shanghai tin overall suppression and then rise, early in the week by a sharp increase in Rensi inventories caused by the impact of falling factors all the way down. On the evening of the 18th, China and the United States made it clear that the macro news that would meet at the G20 summit was affected by positive factors. The next day, after the tin rush in Shanghai rose to 144990 yuan / ton, it was blocked and retreated. Subsequently, short profit taking continued to push up the price of tin in Shanghai, and the price of tin in Shanghai fell slightly after it jumped short on Friday. The weekly level of Shanghai tin entity was supported by the 5-day moving average of 144000 yuan / ton, closing at 144300 yuan / ton, with a trading volume of 54180 hands and a position of 41532 hands, a decrease of 126 hands.

This week, spot prices in Shanghai and tin followed the trend of Shanghai tin as a whole, first suppressed and then rose. In the spot market, due to the decline of the tin price in the early stage compared with last week, the profit space of the arbitrageurs is insufficient, and the willingness to receive goods is suppressed, while the downstream enterprises still maintain a higher level because of the decline in prices, and the wait-and-see mood is strong and the interest is weak. Subsequently, due to the impact of external trading on the Shanghai tin plate down again, Shanghai tin spot prices fell to 142600 to 144000 yuan / ton, downstream enterprises bought and warmed up, the transaction has improved compared with the previous period. However, the tin price rose, downstream enterprises wait-and-see mood intensified, the overall trading atmosphere of the spot market is general. Liter discount, this week the discount range narrowed slightly, this Friday set of cloud tin liter water 100 yuan / ton-flat water, ordinary cloud word sticker 400 to 600 yuan / ton, small brand discount 800 to 1000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: the Fed's interest rate resolution shows that the Fed is quite certain to cut interest rates this year, with the dollar falling all the way to a recent two-week low as of Friday, while the positive impact of Sino-US trade negotiations has been boosted by a sharp fall in the dollar. Lennie rose from $11800 to around $12300 a tonne from Tuesday to Thursday, but was under pressure above its 60-day moving average. Friday, nickel plate significantly lower, back to step on the 5-day daily average rebound. Lennie closed at the Dayang line this week, increasing its position by 2316 to 269000. The adhesion of KDJ overlaps and diverges upward.

This week, Shanghai nickel performance is not as strong as the outside market, many times up the 100000 yuan / ton gate fell back. Shanghai nickel 1906 contract delivery this week, 07 contracts have moved positions or understanding, the squeeze atmosphere alleviated, Monday to Thursday basically around 99500 yuan / ton wide shock. Friday or by the end of the month and a half of the year settlement, mainly to long positions, as of Friday during the day close, Shanghai nickel out of the Dayin line, fell through the multiple moving average. There has been no significant change in nickel fundamentals recently, with oversupply concentrated in the third quarter. The macro impact is more obvious, including the progress of the Sino-US trade negotiations at the G20 summit next week, the Federal Reserve's expectation of cutting interest rates, and so on, or there may be some support for nickel prices. However, considering the quarterly settlement of nearly half a year, there may be a certain withdrawal of funds, due to the dominance of bulls in the early period, nickel prices may be further weakened. Shanghai nickel closed this week in the negative line, position increased by 88000 hands to 243000 hands, trading volume fell 38000 hands to 2.971 million hands, KDJ leveled out.

This week Wuxi 1906 contract to 1907 contract, because the contract Back structure has 1906 yuan / ton price difference, so after the month change, Russia nickel to Wuxi 1907 contract from last week's flat water to raise water 350 yuan / ton, Jinchuan 1907 contract water rise from about 850 yuan / ton to about 950 yuan / ton. Although the water rose on Monday, but this week Russian nickel and Jinchuan rising water has been falling, as of Friday, Russian nickel rising water fell to flat water, some traders reported discount. The rising water in Jinchuan fell to 700 yuan per ton. Mainly due to the increasing supply of domestic goods, part of the supply of 1906 contract delivery into the spot market, superimposed import sources, sufficient market supply, Jinchuan company actively reduced water shipment. Due to the continuous increase in domestic stocks this week, it is expected that next week Russian nickel to Wuxi 1907 yuan / ton or discount 200 yuan / ton to liter water 100 yuan / ton, Jinchuan to Wuxi 1907 contract liter water 500 yuan / ton. Absolute prices have been relatively high this week, so overall spot transactions are not ideal. However, some of the downstream in the high 99000 and low 98500 yuan / ton position, according to their own production situation and optimistic judgment on the later stage of nickel prices, the overall volume of procurement is not large. Especially in the domestic spot continues to increase, traders are basically shipping-based situation, downstream take goods more cautious, more in the wait-and-see. Jinchuan Company has been actively downgrading the rising water shipment, but due to the overall inventory in Shanghai is not much, Jinchang this part of the supply is more sufficient, so the Jinchuan nickel transaction in Shanghai is also not ideal, superimposed downstream consumption is now lighter, traders are more active to receive goods.

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