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[SMM Daily Review] Black series led the way for non-ferrous metals to fall by nearly 2 per cent in Shanghai.
Jun 21,2019 16:47CST
translation
Source:SMM
Today, domestic commodity futures closed mixed, led by non-ferrous metals, Shanghai copper rose slightly, Shanghai tin rose 0.24%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 2%, Shanghai nickel fell more than 1%, Shanghai lead, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 1%. Black rose the most, with hot rolls rising by more than 2%, iron ore by nearly 1%, thread by more than 1%, coke by nearly 1%, and coking coal by 0.5%.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM6 21 month news: today's domestic commodity futures closed mixed, non-ferrous metals led the decline, Shanghai copper rose slightly, Shanghai tin rose 0.24%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 2%, Shanghai nickel fell more than 1%, Shanghai lead, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 1%. Black rose the most, with hot rolls rising by more than 2%, iron ore by nearly 1%, thread by more than 1%, coke by nearly 1%, and coking coal by 0.5%.

LME copper fell slightly on Friday, falling 0.07 per cent to $5968 a tonne in the three months to 15: 00 Beijing time. Shanghai Copper main 1908 contract opened high and fell back, the highest in the day 46980 yuan / ton, the lowest 47070 yuan / ton, closing price 46850 yuan / ton, trading volume 165000 hands, a daily increase of 284.98 million hands; position 246000 hands, a daily increase of 838 hands. The base difference was expanded to 50 yuan / ton, and the price of Shanghai copper was slightly expanded to-50 yuan / ton from 1907 to 1908. SMM spot 1 # electrolytic copper quotation 46860 46940 yuan / ton, the average price is 70 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day. SMM reported that spot quotations are still deadlocked, downstream to maintain a rigid demand procurement rhythm, next week when the delivery of long orders, and face mid-year settlement, market supply remains abundant, the spot rise may be significantly reduced, but due to the spot market at the end of May risk events, or will lead to June invoice shortage and quotation firm, next week invoice and next month invoice spread may be widened. LME zinc fell below the moving average today, falling 0.95 per cent to $2442 a tonne as of 15-16 Beijing time. SMM spot 0 # zinc offer is 19910 to 20010 yuan / ton, the average price is 60 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day. SMM reported that smelters cherish the sale of zinc after the decline, but the rising discount continues the downward trend, traders mainly to ship, but the actual consumption participation is limited, the overall transaction is not much different from yesterday.

Yesterday, Iran shot down a US drone directly, raising geo-tensions in the Middle East. Within a week, the rise in international oil prices fermented and US crude oil rose by about $5. Today, the domestic crude oil system is still on the strong side, but after the morning break, chemical futures concentrated on selling pressure, closing SC crude oil led by 3.24%.

SMM analyst's brief comment on June 21:

Copper: today, Shanghai Copper main contract 1908 opened at 46850 yuan / ton in the morning, immediately after the opening shock rose to the highest level of 46930 yuan / ton, then the disk fell slightly, but due to the lack of market confidence, it was difficult to stand firm. In the afternoon, short positions actively increased, copper prices all the way down to a small shock around 46790 yuan / ton, and then further fell to the lowest point of the day, 46720 yuan / ton, nearly falling below the 46700 yuan / ton mark, followed by a rally at the end of the day, the copper price fell all the way to a small shock around 46790 yuan / ton, then fell further to the lowest point of the day, 46720 yuan / ton, nearly falling below the 46700 yuan / ton mark, and then rose at the end of the day. And charged at 46850 yuan per ton. It rose 10 yuan per ton, or 0.02 percent. Today, Shanghai Copper's main contract position increased by 838 hands to 246000 hands, while trading volume increased by 28000 hands to 165000 hands. The Shanghai Copper Index today reduced its position by 2650 hands to 588000, while trading volume increased by 49000 hands to 301000. Copper in Shanghai rose slightly today and fell back, mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the optimism of Sino-US negotiations gradually digested by the market, short-term news side difficult to form a lasting support for the rise in copper prices, superimposed tensions in the Middle East made the market more worried about the macro-economy, oil prices have also been falling today, copper prices lack of momentum. The market still needs to pay further attention to the process of negotiations between China and the United States, and then judge the trend of copper prices. Today, Shanghai copper closed negative, below by Brin middle rail support, MACD indicators continue to maintain the red column elongated, technical face copper price slightly support, evening waiting for the outside market guidance, test whether Shanghai copper can hold 46700 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum main company 1908 contract opened in the morning at 13840 yuan / ton, the first trading stage pressure operation at 13860 yuan / ton, low hit 13825 yuan / ton, because before noon always difficult to get up the power, in the afternoon short began to increase the position pressure, Shanghai aluminum all the way down, straight below the daily average, fell to 13745 yuan / ton low in the day, refresh the lowest price since the end of March, the end of the market slightly recovered, closed at 13765 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton, Down 0.86%, trading volume increased by 36888 hands to 152000 hands, position volume increased by 9476 hands, position moved backward, short position increased mainly, daily KDJ three-line aggregation downward to form a dead fork. Closing at the Changyin line today, giving back all the gains in the previous three days, it can be seen that the market has basically digested the macro good news of the previous two days, and the focus has returned to fundamentals. Under the background of the downward pressure on alumina prices at the cost end, short sellers take advantage of the opportunity to suppress aluminum prices. Considering that it is difficult to change short factors in the short term, it is expected to continue to run below the Wansi pass in the evening, and continue to pay attention to the long short position changes and the market trading atmosphere in the evening.

Lead: Shanghai lead 1908 contract opened at 16280 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, short put added code into the market, Shanghai lead shock down, and then stabilized at 16015 yuan / ton first line consolidation, and then short-term profit departure, Shanghai lead concussion platform rose slightly to near the daily average, near the close, due to the overall weakness of non-ferrous metals, Shanghai lead fell below the 10,000 integer mark, and recorded an intraday low of 15945 yuan / ton, finally reported at 15965 yuan / ton, down 155yuan / ton, down 0.96%. Position increased by 6392 to 45656. Shanghai lead reported to the Dayin line, initially formed a downward channel, broke through the middle rail support of Brin Road, and 5, 10 days EMA formed a dead fork, Shanghai lead upward resistance is greater, pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can recover the psychological barrier at night.

Zinc: the main 1908 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19710 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. Shanghai zinc fluctuated at 19650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. Near noon, short positions entered the market neatly to depress zinc prices. Shanghai zinc quickly and unilaterally fell until 19410 yuan / ton. The short end of the market left the market slightly, giving Shanghai zinc a certain amount of momentum to stop falling. After a little finishing, it closed down to 19450 yuan / ton, down 385yuan / ton from the previous transaction, down 1.94%. Trading volume decreased by 104000 hands to 537000 hands, and position volume increased by 35088 hands to 333000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc closed a big Yin column, unilateral downward refresh month low, the overall operation around Brin Road under the track, KDJ indicators show downward, and no signs of falling. There was a surge of 35000 short positions in the day, indicating a strong bearish mood in the market, with a sharp increase in short positions for two days in a row. During the superimposed day, the overall social inventory in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin recorded a small increase, and the subsequent market still had expectations for the inventory increase. Shanghai zinc fundamental support weakened, stop falling kinetic energy still to be considered. Expected to run at night or near the lower rail of Brin Road.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1908 opened at 99400 yuan / ton today, Shanghai nickel overall weak operation during the day. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai nickel pressure of 99000 yuan / ton first-line shock fell, below by the 10-day moving average of 98200 yuan / ton first-line support after a small fluctuation. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel center of gravity around 98300 yuan / ton first line narrow range concussion, closed at 98310 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 1450 yuan / ton, down 1.45%, position decreased 8000 hands to 243000 hands, trading volume increased 78800 hands to 778000 hands. All day, Shanghai nickel main contract closed in the negative line, has fallen below the 5-day moving average. The outflow of funds from the Shanghai nickel index was 234 million yuan. In the evening, Shanghai nickel can be supported by the 10-day EMA, holding the 98000 yuan / ton gate.

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