Macro: (2:00 Beijing time on June 20) the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, in line with widespread expectations, but also made major adjustments, making the market expect to cut interest rates in July by more than 90%. The dollar fell all the way down yesterday, brushing the latest two-week low; The renminbi rose again on Thursday, rising 500bp onshore, the biggest gain in nearly seven months, breaking the 6.85 mark, while offshore renminbi rose more than 400bp a day, up for three consecutive days. Crude oil, supported by geo-tensions, US crude stocks fell and OPEC+ production fell, with PetroAmerica up more than 5 per cent and Brent up nearly 3.9 per cent. Data today is basically no important data, in the afternoon and evening will be released in the euro zone and the United States Markit manufacturing PMI initial value, the United States in May existing housing sales annualized total, and so on.
Nickel spot market: yesterday morning Russia nickel than Wuxi 1907 leveling water to liter water 50 yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel than Wuxi 1907 contract generally reported 700 yuan / ton of water. Russian nickel and Jinchuan rising water is generally down, traders feedback that the recent spot market supply gradually increased, and yesterday morning market prices rose as a whole, downstream consumption is weak, spot market trading is very light, some traders Russian nickel discount in the shipment, but the quantity is not large. Jinchuan Company has also been actively shipping water in the near future. Traders followed the reduction of Jinchuan Shengshui, Jinchuan nickel ex-factory price of 100000 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from the previous day, the mainstream transaction at 99650 100200 yuan / ton.
Nickel pig iron market: according to SMM research, Yangjiang area began power restriction yesterday, mainly due to the local conventional line transformation, is expected to return to normal in 15 to 20 days, local nickel pig iron and stainless steel plant production has been affected. According to a nickel pig iron factory in Yangjiang area, it is expected to affect about 10% of normal production. The output of nickel pig iron in this area was 5000 metal tons in May and 500 metal tons in June, accounting for about 1 per cent of the national nickel pig iron production in May.
Stainless steel market: yesterday morning stainless steel plant cold hot rolling guidance prices are raised by 50 yuan / ton. According to SMM research, the prices of state-owned 304-2B rough edge rolls in Wuxi market are 14300-14400 yuan / ton, private 304-2B rough edge rolls are 14100-14150 yuan / ton, and Delong 304 / NO. 15 feet are quoted at 13300 yuan / t-13350 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, as a result of Shanghai nickel pull up, Qingshan hot coil sealed, agents generally raised 50 yuan / ton. The deal improved a little all day.
In terms of inventories, nickel stocks were 170100 tons on 20 June, a decrease of 1002 tons compared with 19 June.
Nickel price judgment: with the decline of the squeeze atmosphere, the disk is difficult to return to strength, the price fluctuation in the short term is greatly affected by the macro mood, since the telephone exchange between Chinese and US leaders, trade war to return to the hope of negotiations, the macro atmosphere has improved, from the previous bad to neutral. It is expected that the nickel price is weak in the short term, and the space for a sharp decline is also very limited.
