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[SMM Review] Black series continued to expand iron ore by more than 2 per cent hot coil and rebar by more than 1 per cent
Jun 20,2019 09:50CST
translation
Source:SMM
In early trading, there were different ups and downs, not much. Shanghai nickel fell nearly 1%, Shanghai tin rose 0.3%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.2%, Shanghai aluminum fell 1%, Shanghai lead fell 0.74%, Shanghai copper fell slightly. Black rose more significantly, coke by 0.36%, iron ore by more than 2%, hot coil by nearly 1.5%, thread by more than 1%, and coking coal by 0.61%.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM6 19 news: early trading non-ferrous ups and downs, not much, Shanghai nickel fell nearly 1%, Shanghai tin rose 0.3%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.2%, Shanghai aluminum fell 1%, Shanghai lead fell 0.74%, Shanghai copper fell slightly. Black rose more significantly, coke by 0.36%, iron ore by more than 2%, hot coil by nearly 1.5%, thread by more than 1%, and coking coal by 0.61%.

Overnight Shanghai copper main 1908 contract opened at 46780 yuan / ton, after the opening straight line hit the high 46890 yuan / ton, then performance with the decline outside the market, short active increase position, copper price shock downward vomit yesterday's rise, until the end of the day fell in the bottom yesterday formed jump gap position, the end of the market down 46660 yuan / ton, closing 46710 yuan / ton, fell 28 per cent in the night. 28%, the price of copper rose yesterday, until the end of the day to stop falling at the bottom of yesterday's jump gap position, the end of the day down 46660 yuan / ton, closing 46710 yuan / ton, fell 28 per cent at night. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 79356 hands, and the position volume increased by 3142 hands to 592000 hands. Us API crude oil stocks fell below market expectations last night, raising concerns about a glut of crude oil, adding to weaker expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and copper prices giving up their gains the day before. At present, the Federal Reserve has decided to leave interest rates unchanged and cut its forecast for inflation this year. The US dollar fell sharply to near 97 this morning, boosting the high opening of Luntong this morning, but the global macro economy is still in a contraction range, copper market demand is weak, copper prices continue to pull up insufficient power, and there is a jump gap in the position of 46600 yuan / ton below Shanghai copper, which is expected to fall back to its high today.

Rio Tinto Iron Ore said in a statement that it had downgraded its forecast for 2019 shipments of the Pilbala mine, citing operational challenges at the mine. The Pilbala mine is expected to ship between 320 million and 330 million tons in 2019, compared with a previous forecast of 333 million to 343 million tons. In early trading futures, iron ore rose more than 2%, hot coil and rebar rose more than 1%, the overall preference of the macro environment, steel demand gradually appeared in the off-season, but the enthusiasm for production is still strong, iron ore port inventory maintained a downward trend, and spot prices have also remained high for a long time.

Crude oil futures prices: SC:421.5 yuan / barrel (- 0.87%), WTI:54.38 yuan / barrel (+ 0.5%), BRENT:62.27 US dollar / barrel (- 0.06%), recently, Sino-US trade frictions have eased, EIA crude oil stocks fell more than expected yesterday, the Federal Reserve continued to release dovish remarks, WTI closed up 0.5%, up 1.46% in early trading this morning.

Today's forecast:

Copper: at present, the global macro-economy is still in a contraction range, the copper market demand is weak, copper prices continue to pull up power is insufficient, and the current Shanghai copper below 46600 yuan / ton position there is a short gap, prices are expected to fall back to high today. Spot holders recently due to the long single demand expectations strong quotation, and currently do not see a large number of imported copper into the market, the holder selling pressure is not great, the market will still maintain a stalemate pattern. It is estimated that today's copper is 5890 US $5960 / ton, Shanghai copper 46400 / ton 46900 yuan / ton, spot water 20-80 yuan / ton, spot water 20 yuan / ton, Shanghai copper 46400 yuan / ton, spot water 20 yuan / ton, spot water 80 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: macro release warming signal, the upper four levels of pressure still exists, the material Shanghai Aluminum main Company 1908 contract days running in 13800 to 14100 yuan / ton, spot pair in Pingshui to rise 20 yuan / ton in the current month.

Lead: the $1900 mark for lead has become a short-term pressure level, but the dollar's continued strength has been limited due to loosening expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, easing the pressure on lead to weaken to some extent. Shanghai lead recent trend significantly narrowed, but the overall operation slowly upward, the future test of the upper 16300 pressure platform, low because the supply of renewable raw materials has not yet been loosened, lead prices still maintain a concussive point of view.

Zinc: the next day Len zinc unilateral downward, return to the previous day all increases, KDJ indicators show a flat, indicating that there is no upward trend, or pressure 5, 10 days moving average concussion, the range runs in 2430 to 2480 US dollars / ton. Shanghai zinc closed negative, the upper pressure 5-day moving average, KDJ index formed a dead fork, superimposed inventory increase expectations, follow-up action can be insufficient, or pressure moving average concussion, the range runs in 19550 to 20050 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic to 1907 contract water 180 to 230, double Yan liter water 200 to 250.

Tin: the lower support is expected to be around $18500 per tonne for the previous platform and the upper resistance is expected to be around $19300 per tonne for the 40-day moving average. It is estimated that the lower support of Shanghai tin is located at the high point of 143500 yuan / ton in the early stage of the platform, and the upper resistance is located at 144400 yuan / ton EMA from 5 to 20 days. In the spot market, Shanghai Tin closed last night near Wednesday's closing price, and the mainstream trading price is expected to remain at 143000 to 145000 yuan per ton today.

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