[record of SMM lead internal morning meeting on 19 June]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

ECB President Draghi said that if the economic outlook does not improve, the central bank may need to increase stimulus measures, the dovish comments pushed up the ECB interest rate expectations, European equity bonds generally rose;

Several bond traders have confirmed that some institutions have received guidance from the regulatory window to avoid a default on pledged repo transactions in the future, and that if any institution goes against the wind, it may face penalties of being suspended for three years in the future. In order to prevent further panic, institutions that have already defaulted on their transactions or are at risk of default should do their best to ensure compliance.

The China Automobile Circulation Association recently submitted a letter of recommendation to the Ministry of Finance on adjusting the VAT policy on used car transactions, suggesting that the used car VAT policy should be adjusted and the existing full collection should be changed to VAT on the difference, or the tax exemption policy for a three-year period should be given to used car dealers.

The central bank carried out a 14-day reverse repo operation of 90 billion yuan on the open market yesterday, due to the expiration of 10 billion yuan of reverse repo yesterday, with a net investment of 80 billion yuan on the same day.

The central bank and the CSRC held meetings with six major banks and some leading securities firms in the industry to encourage them to expand their financing to large securities firms and support large securities firms to expand their financing to small and medium-sized non-bank institutions, so as to maintain the stability of the same industry business and appease the market emotion. dispel the concerns of some financial institutions.

Fundamentals:

The Shanghai period lead shock is strong, the holder shipment turns to the positive, the spot quotation turns to the discount, some traders receive the goods at the low price, among them, the Shanghai market Mu Lun lead to the 1907 contract discount 30 yuan / ton to the Pingshui quotation, the southern lead to the 1907 contract flat water to the litre water 50 yuan / ton quotation, the Jinsha lead to the 1907 contract liter water 50 yuan / ton quotation, the import lead to the 1907 contract discount 50 yuan / ton quotation, On the other hand, the mainstream quotation of the bulk order of the original lead refinery pastes the average price of SMM1# lead to 50 to 70 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, the trading price of reduced lead is limited with the rising power, including tax recycled lead to maintain the average price of SMM1# lead 100 to 150 yuan / ton factory; and downstream fear of high wait-and-see, only rigid demand procurement, bulk market transactions in general.

Lead price:

With the emergence of sudden news, Lun lead appeared short-term upward momentum, but the duration is limited, if the situation in China and the United States is not further development, it is expected that the high level may fall back more; Shanghai lead newspaper 5 Lianyang, the current platform is more important, if the amount of breakthrough, short-term Shanghai lead open up space, if again fall back, or once again boost the confidence of short investors in the market;

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to rise 75 to 100 yuan per ton today.