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Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.6.10 to 2019.6.14)
Jun 14,2019 19:04CST
Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.6.10 to 2019.6.14)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, June 14 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

Last Friday, non-agricultural data fell above expectations, superimposed by moderate inflation, the Federal Reserve raised expectations of cutting interest rates, and the US dollar was as low as 96.451. Although external uncertainty intensified, confidence in domestic demand expanded unabated, market sentiment was boosted, and basic metals generally recovered. However, Sino-US economic and trade relations are still tense. The G20 summit held at the end of June was the key point, and the market waited cautiously. Most of the domestic metals showed a rebound blocked impact down trend, SMMI increased by 0.14% in the week, metal differentiation is obvious, nickel, tin and copper maintained a rise in the week, zinc, lead and aluminum fell. Nickel performance was the strongest in the week, with nickel rising 2 per cent in the week and more than 4 per cent in Shanghai. Spot performance was dauntingly high, slightly below the futures market, with SMMI.Ni up 3.11 per cent per week. Lunxi is up US $19000 / ton, Shanghai Xichong is up 146000 yuan / ton, the high level is stable, the spot discount is slightly expanded, but the price performance is also stable, SMMI.SN rose 0.7 per cent per week. Copper prices at home and abroad recovered from last week's lows, spot water rose slightly to stabilize, SMMI.Cuweekly rose 0.45%. SMMI.Zn fell 1.32% per week. Although there was a risk of crowding out of zinc in Shanghai that month, the spot discount reached more than 200 yuan / ton after the price spread expanded to about 600 yuan. The price of aluminum hovered around Wansi, and there was a cautious wait-and-see attitude in the air, close to delivery, rising water stalemate, and SMMI.Al fell 0.36 per cent per week. The price of lead hovered around Wanliu, the shock pattern of the box remained unchanged, the spot froze near Pingshui, and SMMI.Pb fell 0.31 per cent per week. The most sensitive thing in the market next week is the decision of the Federal Reserve to discuss interest rates. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US dollar. The domestic metal will enter the June long single delivery period after the month change, and the spot futures activity may increase significantly. However, some of the metal items that were previously crowned with the risk of crowding out positions may temporarily subside and return to rationality.


Copper: the recovery of Lun Copper has been hampered this week. Due to the weak performance of non-farm payrolls data and PPI data released in the United States, the cooling of core inflation increased the Fed's expectation of cutting interest rates, and the low performance of the US dollar fluctuated around 96.6. in addition, the slowing trade relationship between the United States and Mexico alleviated market concerns, Lentong waited for an opportunity to pick up and pulled up, short sellers were afraid to close their positions, and copper prices turned the tide from a low of US $5801.5 per ton at the beginning of the week until it reached US $5956 per ton in the middle and short term of the week. However, the impulse on the high performance is insufficient, and the market is still dragged down by the tense global trading environment, adding that the continuous increase in crude oil stocks has led to a drop of nearly 2% in the US crude oil this week, and the bulls lack confidence and leave the market at a high level. At the same time, it was announced on Thursday that LME copper stocks rose by 37000 tons, prompting copper prices to quickly give up their gains at the beginning of the week, with the center of gravity falling below the 5-day moving average. The center of gravity of Lun Copper moved up this week, temporarily getting rid of last week's low position. Although the weekly K-line performance stopped falling 8 even negative, but the upper elongated upper line performance high impact confidence is insufficient, and the MACD index green column is still pulled down, the technical performance still has downward risk. This week, Luntong mainly reduced its short position, reducing its position by 7037 hands to 298000 hands. Shanghai copper was also buoyed by domestic trade data earlier this week, with Chinese exports much higher than expected in May. China's imports in May recorded the biggest drop in three years compared with the same period last year, showing that positive progress has been made in the diversification of China's trade market. In addition, the positive progress made by "Belt and Road Initiative" has also promoted the development of China's trade activities. Therefore, due to the market by the deterioration of the trade environment pessimism has improved, copper prices rose actively, from the key position of 46050 yuan / ton all the way up, but then blocked at 47050 yuan / ton, continue to pull up kinetic energy is insufficient, and domestic demand as a result of the gradual shift to the off-season, the market short take advantage of the high market, prices fell rapidly, closing at the physical pillar. Shanghai copper main weekly as a whole, although the performance stopped falling 5 continuous yin, but closed at the long upper shadow line, and above is still blocked the 5-day EMA pressure level, the weekly K line is still unable to get the recent EMA support, and the center of gravity is still in Brin under the rail expansion position, the technical side still has a certain downward pressure. This week, the overall trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index increased by 252000 hands to 1.317 million hands, while position volume fell by 8276 hands to 607000 hands, mainly by short positions. In the spot market, last week, the sentiment of risk aversion in the trade market was still not completely eliminated. At the beginning of the week, the market quotation was still strong and high to 90 yuan per ton of water, but then due to the rebound in the disk surface and the entry of imported copper into the domestic market, the spot quotation showed a trend of gradual downward adjustment when the market was afraid of high and the exchange of goods was slow. A week later, the price dropped to 40 yuan to 90 yuan per ton. As the monthly contract price difference continues to be stable around 40 yuan / ton, close to delivery, the holder has no intention of selling at a low price, while the trader is willing to hold down the rising water to receive the goods, the supply and demand sides are glued to the saw, the rising water is stable, and the downstream maintains the rigid demand to buy.


Aluminum: this week Lun aluminum in the low range of performance first and then suppression, the overall trend is not strong. At the beginning of the week, the macro atmosphere was not good, and the Lun aluminum shock dropped 1752.5 US dollars / ton, refreshing the low point since January 2017, and then pushing up the aluminum price under the decline of the US dollar. In view of the strong resistance of the 20-day moving average above, the impact of the resumption of production in overseas aluminum plants still exists in the early stage. Although the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, the Lun aluminum eventually failed to break through the US $1800 / ton mark, and the high level only briefly hit US $1795 / ton. And the dollar index recovered from 96.45 lows, back above 97 points, Lun aluminum upward blocked, near Friday recorded two consecutive negative, the trend is weak again, as of Friday 17-40, Lun aluminum closed at 1775 yuan / ton, recorded Xiaoyang line, the center of gravity sank than last week, below all averages, is expected to continue to maintain low range volatility next week, 1800 yuan / ton line is difficult to break in the short term.

This week, Shanghai Aluminum showed a weak interval shock, position moved backward, the main company changed months to 1908 contracts, the main even 1908 contracts were suppressed by short positions at the beginning of the week, and the positions increased by more than 15000 hands on the same day. 13860 yuan / ton refreshed the lowest price since the beginning of April, because there was still some support below, but the resistance level of the 60-day moving average was stronger above the 60-day moving average. Shanghai aluminum fell back again after it was blocked from 14025 yuan / ton. There was no obvious upward trend over the weekend, closing at 13910 yuan per ton on Friday. This week, the K line ended at the Xiaoyin line, located below the 5-10 / 40 daily moving average, and the short position was mainly increased. So far, the K line has recorded four consecutive yin, and the third line of Zhou du KDJ is facing down sharply. Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory is still out of stock this week, the actual decline is significantly narrower than in the previous two weeks, superimposed by the market's short expectations for long-term consumption and the correction in alumina prices. Next week, we need to pay attention to the 13800 yuan / ton first-line support level.

This week, East China spot transactions are better, within the noon spot prices first raise and then suppress. The transaction price was concentrated at 13960-14070 yuan / ton in Shanghai, 20 yuan / ton in flat water to rising water in that month, 13990-14070 yuan / ton in Wuxi and 13990-14100 yuan / ton in Hangzhou. As a result of this week's aluminum prices to maintain the disk upside down while spot water rise, the holder shipment has always been more active, although a large household this week has a lower receipt than the previous period, but traders and middlemen still have a high degree of trading activity. As a result of the week three days aluminum around 11:00 changes greatly, the spot aluminum price has the short time obvious decline situation, when the aluminum price is in the low price, the holder slightly cherishes the sale to push up the price, at this time the buyer and seller transaction performance stalemate, the atmosphere weakens. This week, the spot in Hangzhou is tighter than that in Wuxi, Shanghai, the circulation of spot is not much, and the willingness of the shippers to ship is not strong. Downstream end, at the beginning of the week, due to the return of the festival after the superimposed replenishment demand, downstream receiving active, the next few days because of aluminum prices upward to on-demand procurement, near the weekend spot price fell below ten thousand four, superimposed fake pre-ready goods, the transaction improved.


Lead: lead continued a strong trend this week, with short-term technical indicators of 5, 10, and 20 all showing a long arrangement. In addition to the decline in the US dollar, which led to a rebound in LME lead, at the beginning of the week, although LME lead stocks increased slightly by nearly 1,000 tons, the structure of LME lead 0-3back expanded to US $42.50 / ton, increasing the market concern about the soft warehouse of Lun lead, and some short positions began to accelerate their departure. Lun lead was based on the 10-day moving average of US $1845 per ton on Monday. It closed at the Changyang line for two days in a row, up 3.77%, and made up for the decline of the great shade line on Friday. Market sentiment entered a long trial period. In the next few days, the European session of Lun lead repeatedly tried to continue to attack, breaking the $1900 mark. After touching $1912, it was blocked from the 60-day moving average, up 2.47% per week. Next week's US macro data will focus on the May CPI monthly rate of the euro zone, the total number of US construction permits in May (10,000 households), the total number of new housing starts in the United States in May (10,000 households), and the Federal Reserve FOMC's interest rate resolution and policy statement. The initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in June, the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in June in the United States, and the total number of existing housing sales in the United States in May (10,000 households), the market macro data organization did not give the relevant forecast value, but from the recent corresponding macro data performance in the United States, it is expected that the US economic data will not perform better than expected next week. At the same time, in view of the recent market view that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in July, so focus on the Fed interest rate resolution meeting Powell's speech. To sum up, next week, the US Index is still dominated by concussion and weakness, boosting non-ferrous metals to a certain extent, coupled with the opening of the upward channel of Lun lead, next week lead has the possibility of standing at the US $1900 mark and continuing to try to break through the 60-day moving average above. Breakthrough needs to cooperate with the effective release of trading volume, otherwise it needs to be cautiously pushed up and down. The operating range is expected to run from $1840 to $1920 per ton next week.

This week, Shanghai lead shows the trend of first promotion and then suppression, the overall trend is still not separated from the box shock pattern, 16300 yuan short open position actively, short-term want to break through the pressure level upward, the need for fundamentals to appear optimistic reversal expectations. At the beginning of the week, stimulated by the news of many original lead refineries overhauling and shutting down production, the short funds in the field initially snatched the runway to flee, promoted the Shanghai lead concussion upward, reported that the long lead continued to be strong, the capital long mood recovered slightly, but the good times were not long, and the Shanghai lead inertia rushed up to 16320 yuan / ton the next day, and the short position was convenient for the nearby price to gather fire to crack down, Shanghai lead concussion weakened, and the short took advantage of the situation. Shanghai lead fell 0.96 percent in three days, the market initiative returned to short hands, and the six-thousand mark below was in jeopardy. As of Friday, Shanghai lead 1907 contract was reported at 16135 yuan per ton, up 0.28 percent a week, and its position was reduced by 1986 hands. Next week, there is no need to focus on data in China, and the trend of lead prices is more dependent on fundamentals. Although the number of primary lead inspection and repair manufacturers has increased, the reduction on the supply side is more to give low resistance to lead prices. The elasticity of lead prices depends on the marginal changes on the consumer side. According to SMM research, due to the low terminal consumption, the inventory of finished products in storage enterprises has been moved to about 32 days, reaching a new high in nearly two years. If consumption is weak, We believe that the upward height of lead price is limited, still maintain the view of box shock. The operating range is expected to be 15900 to 16250 yuan per ton.

This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is 16050 to 16250 yuan / ton. Lead prices continue to operate in the range this week, but due to the downturn in terminal consumption, market trading is relatively light, storage enterprises wait and see carefully; primary lead, this week some refineries continue to repair, but the supply compression is difficult to offset the downturn in consumption, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 80 to 100 yuan / ton, as of Friday, the mainstream price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton to flat water. Trade is also affected by this, holders frequently downgrade spot water, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation for 1907 contract discount 30 yuan / ton to near Pingshui; recycled lead, with the gradual increase in the supply of recycled refineries, coupled with the refinery production profits slightly repaired, during the period once appeared discount 200yuan / ton factory, as of Friday, recycled lead mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount 150,100 yuan / ton.


Zinc: this week, the zinc showed a finishing situation, the upper pressure on the 20-day EMA, the weekly line recorded 6 Lianyin. At the beginning of the week, driven by macro optimism, non-ferrous metals generally turned red and went up. After stepping back on US $2500 / ton, Lun Zinc was pushed down by the Lme zinc inventory record, and again tried to break and touch US $2534.5 / ton. However, under high pressure and optimism receded, the center of gravity of Lun Zinc slightly sank to US $2510 / ton, and the upper and lower space was only about US $15 / ton. Near the weekend, the US finger went up and down to put pressure on it. Coupled with the weakening of overseas Back support for zinc prices, Lun Zinc regained its decline and moved its center of gravity down to around $2475 / ton, unable to maintain the integer barrier.

This week, Shanghai zinc "squeeze" did not cool down, the monthly difference continued to expand, macro-driven zinc prices fell back. With the announcement of the capital construction financing plan at the beginning of the week, coupled with the release of liquidity by the central bank, optimism in the financial market was high, while Shanghai Zinc's position remained high in the month, and the "squeeze position" did not cool down. Shanghai Zinc accelerated its upward rise, and some of the high funds stopped its profits. in addition, optimism has been digested by the market, and in the second half of the week, Shanghai zinc shock gave up all its gains, delivery nearly continued to reduce its position in the same month, and both sides were relatively calm. The risk of "crowding out" has not dissipated for the time being, with the monthly difference between 1906 and 1907 expanding to about 700 yuan per ton and from 1906 to 1908 to about 1200 yuan per ton.

This week, Shanghai market 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1906 contract from 60-discount 40 yuan / ton to discount 200-discount 180 yuan / ton; Shuangyan, Chihong from 20-flat water to discount 80-discount 40 yuan / ton, of which non-deliverable Chihong understate to discount 140-discount 1906 yuan / ton or so; imported SMC to 0 # domestic zinc from 20-discount 10 yuan / ton to discount 40-30 yuan / ton. This week, with the continuous expansion of the monthly difference, traders are still mainly shipping to actively lock in the disk profit, but the base difference is higher and the zinc price remains high, the receiving and downstream waiting mood is stronger, the morning trading leader's single transaction is dominant, with the conservative SMM net average price floating down 10 yuan 20 yuan / ton or so, the rising discount transaction is slightly weak, the demand for poor spot discount rapidly expanded to the discount 150-100 yuan / ton, the demand is not good spot discount rapidly expanded to the discount 150-100 yuan / ton, the demand is not good spot discount rapidly expand to the discount 150-100 yuan / ton, the demand is not good spot discount rapidly expand to the discount 150-100 yuan / ton, There is already a suitable profit for delivery of goods, and some traders actively enter the market to purchase deliverable spot warehouse receipts. The same brand in the market can be divided into warehouse receipts. The transaction is obviously differentiated. Under the control of delivery cost, the spot discount is expanding slowly. However, the transaction is a drag on the transaction, coupled with the capital cost restrictions, the delivery willingness of the shippers is further enhanced near the weekend, and the underwater discount is expanded to 200-180 yuan / ton. To domestic non-deliverable goods transactions, the overall transaction is slightly less than last week.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract rising water 62060 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market from Pingshui near to rising water 110yuan / ton. Refinery normal shipment this week, the month's position is relatively high, Shanghai Zinc 1906 and 1907 contract monthly difference continues to expand, Guangdong City as a result of the Shanghai Zinc 1907 contract quotation caused by rising water continues to rise, but the overall continuation of the contract discount of 100 to 50 yuan / ton. This week, trading is relatively active, but also mainly contributed by traders, the month discount attracted to buy the current selling period arbitrage, after the market collection enthusiasm increased obviously last week, the circulation source of goods transferred to the warehouse receipt, and then the circulation source gradually narrowed. After the source of deliverable goods became scarce, the discount narrowed from 100 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton in that month, and the discount increased from Pingshui in Shanghai to 110 yuan / ton in Shanghai. This week due to the lower reaches of the order is not good, the superposition of higher water, the overall procurement intention is not good. Overall, trading this week is significantly more active than last week, the transaction has improved.

This week Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1906 contract discount 250yuan / ton-rising water 200yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai market last week Pingshui changed to discount 20 yuan / ton. During the week, zinc prices rose steadily and moderately, refineries shipped normally, and the circulation of goods in the market was relatively abundant; the spot discount expanded from 50 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton on Monday to the 06 contract on Friday. the market circulation is relatively abundant; the spot discount is expanded from 50 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton on Monday. Mainly because the downstream hope and fear of falling mood intertwined, superimposed into June terminal demand is poor, downstream orders turn less poor, the willingness to receive goods is not good; in addition, near delivery, and Tianjin market does not have zinc futures delivery warehouse, resulting in addition to downstream consumption, there is no other way to deal with, so Jinshi zinc spot discount expanded faster. This week Tianjin market trading atmosphere is cold, downstream to wait and see, the willingness to receive goods is not good, the overall transaction situation has improved compared with last week.


Tin: this week Lunxi overall maintained a high level of consolidation. Malaysia's MSC Company, announced on Monday, delayed the delivery of refined tin to its customers due to the shortage of raw materials, adding to the market's concern about the shortage of tin ore raw materials, supporting the trend of Lunxi to maintain a high level of consolidation in an environment where the upward trend of the US finger has put pressure on the trend of Lunxi. On Wednesday, due to falling crude oil prices, Lunxi quickly fell to $18770 a tonne before bottoming out to erase the previous decline. On Thursday, Lunxi looked up at the resistance level near the 40-day moving average and failed to fall back. Zhou Nailun tin along the 5-day moving average, the center of gravity slowly moved up, blocked above the 40-day moving average of 19440 U. S. dollars, the lower 20-day moving average and 10-day moving average intersecting adhesive, forming the lower technical support.

This week, Shanghai tin overall rose slightly after falling back, rising as high as 146000 yuan / ton after giving up some of the increase. Friday's closing price was 144880 yuan / ton, up 1580 yuan / ton from the previous period, with a total of 66756 transactions in the week, an increase of 15732 hands. The number of positions was 41406, a reduction of 1354. On Monday, as a result of long positions, the Shanghai Xiyang line rose, breaking through the previous horizontal range; Tuesday short profit taking, Shanghai tin positions long positive line rose; Wednesday, Thursday long short forces intertwined to maintain high consolidation; early Friday due to long positions increased to 146000 yuan / ton, the dual role of short suppression and long departure led to a decline in Shanghai tin.

This week, Shanghai tin overall rose after some decline. Spot prices in Shanghai and tin rose from 142500-144000 yuan / ton on Monday to 144000-145500 yuan / ton on Thursday, and fell back to 143500-145000 yuan / ton on Friday. In terms of discount, due to the rise of tin plate in Shanghai, the range of stickers has been expanded from 100yuan / ton in Yunxi on Monday, 500yuan / ton in ordinary Yunzi, 800yuan / ton in small brands to 500yuan / ton in small brands, 600yuan / ton in ordinary Yunzi stickers and 1000 yuan / tons in small brands. On Monday, Shanghai Tin ended its low consolidation for five consecutive trading days, rising in the form of a positive line, but because of the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival, the market trading atmosphere was light. Tuesday disk again high, Shanghai set merchants higher enthusiasm for receiving goods, but the low price of small brand goods is limited, coupled with the high price of sets on the market is not favored, and downstream enterprises due to the rise in tin prices to buy light, Shanghai tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is general; Wednesday, Thursday Shanghai tin plate high level to maintain stability, spot market transaction atmosphere is general; On Friday, the center of gravity of the tin plate in Shanghai shifted downward, the price difference between the sets narrowed, the willingness of the sets became weaker, the buying interest of the downstream enterprises was lighter, and the overall trading atmosphere of the spot market became lighter.


Nickel: us non-farm data hit a three-month low on Friday, with Treasury yields hanging upside down, adding to tariffs imposed by the US and Mexico, sending the dollar index down 96.45 on Friday. The pound fell sharply on Monday and the dollar recovered slightly, but Trump lashed out at the Fed's interest rate policy, with higher expectations of rate cuts and a weaker dollar. In the second half of the week, US CPI fell short of expectations and US inflation fell back, but market expectations were reflected ahead of time, with the dollar rebounding sharply to near the 97 mark. Early in the week, relying on a low level of US $11600 per ton, the external market recovered from a low level of US $11600 per tonne at the beginning of the week. Affected by the flood mood in Indonesia on Tuesday, the mood broke out, based on the 10-day moving average, stepped on the 10-day moving average of 11780 US dollars, and reached around 12000 US dollars per ton several times. On Friday, it was supported by the 10-day moving average, broke through the 20-day moving average, reached 12065 US dollars per ton, and tried to reach the 40-day moving average. Lun Ni rose 3% per week, slightly increased position transactions also reduced, the performance is far worse than Shanghai Ni.

Shanghai nickel performed strongly this week, pulling from 95500 yuan / ton to 100000 yuan / ton at one point. Lows stabilized and rebounded on Monday and Tuesday, but mainly short profits. Shanghai Ni Chong rose 98500 yuan / ton on Wednesday before falling back to close on the film line. In Thursday afternoon trading, Shanghai nickel rose sharply, mainly with bulls increasing positions, reaching 101000 yuan / ton, and standing at 100000 yuan / ton on Friday, touching 101360 yuan / ton. Although it was reported as a cross star on Friday, it has broken through all recent averages in an all-round way. During the week, the Shanghai nickel index increased the position increment, the weekly position degree increment reached more than 22000 hands, and the transaction increment reached more than 1.08 million hands. The increase was more than 4%, showing a strong performance. Shanghai nickel import window opened, bonded areas and foreign sources of goods flowed into China, but the overall domestic inventory is still low. Due to the near delivery of Shanghai nickel 1906 position is still about 16000 hands, the delivery volume is expected to be about 8000 tons, 1907 and 1908 contract positions are 165000 hands and 222000 hands, respectively. At present, the bonded area plus domestic warehouse receipt and spot inventory of about 50, 000 tons, while foreign LME nickel plate inventory is only about 30, 000 tons, Shanghai nickel should be alert to the risk of domestic squeeze. The superimposed floods in Indonesia have not yet receded, or have a certain impact on the production of nickel pig iron plants, and have a strong positive mood for nickel prices in the near future. The characteristics of internal strong and external weak are persistent.

Spot transactions: this week Russian nickel to Wuxi 1906 contract from last week's discount of 80 yuan / ton to flat water, Jinchuan 1906 contract week average rising water from 650 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton. This week Russia nickel gold Sichuan rising water is higher, although due to the absolute price is higher, downstream take goods situation is general, but because of the recent domestic pressure warehouse risk, the holder is willing to lift the water strongly. However, on Friday, the holder reported that due to the large number of imported goods, there may be a risk of rising water after moving the warehouse on the disk, and a discount of 50 yuan per ton or flat water delivery was quoted on Friday. Prices rebounded all the way from 95500 yuan / ton to near the 101000 yuan / ton gate this week. Nickel prices in the first half of the week in the vicinity of 95500 yuan to 96100 yuan / ton consolidation, spot transactions improved, downstream basically in 9.58-96100 yuan / ton active transactions. In the second half of the week, with the continuous rise of prices, the downstream is flat, basically more in the wait and see. And Jinchuan nickel downstream transactions as a whole is relatively light, but traders are optimistic about the expansion of nickel back structure, believe that the late Jinchuan Shengshui will continue to rise, this week traders receive Jinchuan nickel more positive, but throughout the week, due to the sharp rise in absolute prices, Jinchuan Russian nickel transactions are not as active as last week.

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