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[SMM Daily Review]
Jun 14,2019 16:25CST
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Source:SMM
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SMM6 14 news: by the end of the day, from the point of view of the market, Shanghai nickel rose 2.13%, Shanghai tin rose 1.69%, Shanghai copper fell 0.09%, Shanghai lead rose 0.31%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.99%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.5%. Black iron ore continued to rise 2.22%, the rest closed down, coke coking coal fell more than 1%, thread fell 0.34%, hot roll fell 0.22%.

(LME) nickel on the London Metal Exchange jumped to a two-week high on Friday amid fears that supplies from Indonesia, a major producer, would be disrupted as flooding affected some of the local nickel mines. Floods in Indonesia's Sulawesi nickel region have raised fears of disruptions in Indonesian nickel supplies. Indonesia is a major nickel producer and exporter and a major supplier of nickel to China's stainless steel industry. The LME index of three-month nickel rose 1.9 per cent to a two-week high of $12065 a tonne, after the latest 1 per cent rise to $11965 a tonne. Shanghai nickel rose as much as 3 per cent to 101360 yuan a tonne since may 28, before closing up 1.7 per cent.

Global copper dominant inventory is low, 13 Lun copper inventory 248550 tons, + 37650 tons. Workers at the Chuquicamata Copper Union, a unit of Chilean state copper company Codelco, said late Wednesday that they would begin a strike on Friday after previous labor agreement negotiations broke down. As of June 14, stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 139556 tons,-6070 tons, which continued to decline. The dollar fell back on the 10th line, and the overall trend is still weak. Today, Shanghai Copper was lifted before it was suppressed, and finally basically gave up all its gains on the same day, closing at 46340. It rose mainly on the back of stronger expectations of a Fed rate cut and a possible strike at a copper mine in Chile, and then limited futures gains because of macroeconomic bearish effects.

Oil prices fell on Friday amid fears that trade disputes would weigh on global demand, but the attack on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman this week supported oil prices.

SMM analyst's brief comment on June 14:

Lead: within a day, the main 1907 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16060 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead briefly consolidated below the daily average, and then accepted the entry at a low price. The Shanghai lead concussion platform moved to 16125 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 16135 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.31%, and the position increased by 320 hands to 44286 hands. Shanghai lead closed Zhongyang line, continued the horizontal market, and weekly level, also showed a consolidation trend, it is expected that Shanghai lead at night may still be interval shock, and to 10, 000 to the bottom, above the pressure on the 40-day moving average.

Zinc: the main 1908 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 20155 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, the short position entered the market substantially at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc opened high and low, all the way down to 20070 yuan / ton, failed to try to go up again, and then the short position left the market to boost Shanghai zinc to 20120 yuan / ton first line narrow range finishing, the operating range does not exceed 30 yuan / ton, enter the European trading period, and then the short exit boosts the Shanghai zinc to 20120 yuan / ton first line narrow range finishing, the operation range does not exceed 30 yuan / ton, enters the European trading period, Dragged down by the outside market, Shanghai zinc quickly pierced 20000 yuan / ton integer level support, all the way down 19990 yuan / ton Xu Li returned to rise, up to 20100 yuan / ton, recorded a V shape, backfilling most of the decline, closing down 20100 yuan / ton, down 185 yuan / ton, down 0.91%, trading volume increased by 169000 hands to 434000 hands, and position volume increased by 22444 hands to 286000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc recorded three consecutive yin, the overall jump off the middle track of Bolin Road, the KDJ index turned downward, showing a more obvious downward trend of Shanghai zinc, the social inventory of Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin increased compared with last Thursday, the superimposed market is still strong, but the consumer side is still no obvious improvement, Shanghai zinc current action can be weak, night observation Brindao middle track suppression.

Aluminum: the Shanghai aluminum main company 1908 contract opened at 13915 yuan / ton in the morning, and rose at the beginning of the day to reach a high of 13935 yuan / ton by a shadow line on a positive line, followed by a series of short positions, and the aluminum price dived to a low point of 13880 yuan / ton, brushing a new three-day low, starting to climb from the low point in the afternoon, but the upper pressure was larger, and again the upward movement was blocked in the vicinity of 13930 yuan / ton. It fell back for the second time in the last day and hovered at 13910 yuan / ton line. Finally closed at 13910 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan / ton, down 0.32%, closed at the Xiaoyin line, giving up all yesterday's gains, trading volume increased by 11474 hands to 71840 hands, position volume increased by 3882 hands to 241000 hands, daily KDJ third-line aggregation. Today, Shanghai aluminum trend is not strong, the lack of upward power performance is lacklustre, pay attention to the night long short position changes and 13800 yuan / ton first-line support.

Copper: today, Shanghai Copper main contract 1908 opened in the morning at 46490 yuan / ton, immediately after the opening of the day to the highest position of 46630 yuan / ton, due to macro-level uncertainty is still very large, lack of market confidence, high points difficult to stabilize, after a small probe all the way down to 46430 yuan / ton, and then the center of gravity rebounded slightly to 46480 yuan / ton near the shock finishing, the afternoon trading continued to continue the low trend, opened immediately after the decline, And in 46360 46420 yuan / ton near the shock finishing, and then fell to the lowest level of 46290 yuan / ton, the market rose slightly and closed at 46340 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton, down 0.09%. Today, the position of Shanghai Copper's main contract decreased by 4616 hands to 241000 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 10, 000 hands to 130000 hands. Near the delivery date, Shanghai Copper 1906 continued to reduce its position by 5210 hands to 7970 hands. Shanghai Copper Index positions fell 13000 hands to 607000 hands, while trading volume fell 44000 hands to 234000 hands. Due to the increase in crude oil stocks, the decline in oil prices, and the continuing global macroeconomic risks, there is not enough momentum for copper prices to rise. Today, Shanghai copper closed slightly, the KDJ index continued to expand, waiting for guidance from the outside market at night to test whether Shanghai copper can stand firm at 46500 yuan / ton.

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