SMM6 11: looking back at the economic data of the past month in the United States, it is really a surprise. The author summarizes the economic performance of the United States over the past month. As shown in the figure below, red represents extremely poor and orange represents poor.
Although the unemployment rate continued to equalize its best performance for half a century in May, it is hard to hide the embarrassment of non-farm payrolls. The number of new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector in May was well below the 224000 in April and below market expectations. In the first five months of 2019, the US non-agricultural sector created an average of 164000 jobs a month, down from 223000 in 2018. Analysts said the May jobs data were disappointing, suggesting that uncertainty caused by escalating trade tensions had begun to have a negative impact on the domestic economy.
Manufacturing PMI, another important indicator in May, is also not optimistic. The latest figures from Margit, a leading business data research firm, show that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index PMI in May was 50.5, the lowest in a decade, indicating a sharp decline in the US manufacturing boom. Weak demand and economic frictions have led companies to show their lowest confidence in future output growth since mid-2012, according to the Margit report. The chart below shows the trend of manufacturing PMI in the United States over the past year.
In addition, retail sales, which represent US consumption, also fell unexpectedly in April, including a 1.9 per cent drop in construction materials, a 1.3 per cent drop in household appliances and electronics, and a 1.1 per cent drop in car sales. With consumption accounting for 70 per cent of the US economy, poor consumption data in April cast a shadow over the US economy in the second quarter.
The core PCE price index, which the Fed values most, performed even worse in the first quarter, which will bring about a big shift in the Fed's monetary policy. The market had expected a rate cut by December, but Goldman had a different view, warning that the growing belief that the Fed would cut interest rates soon could be wrong. "while this is a critical decision, we expect the FOMC to keep fund rates unchanged for the rest of the year," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jane Hazos said in a report on Monday. " He added: "Powell's speech is only focused on longer-term issues, otherwise some market participants may feel 'disconnected'." In addition, according to (MNI), an international market news agency, today, the Federal Reserve does not think the macro situation needs to cut interest rates, indicating that whether to cut interest rates this year or not is still uncertain.
A number of other indicators, including personal spending, factory orders, house price indices and industrial output, have also fallen by varying degrees, making it impossible for Mr Trump to say that trade frictions have no impact on the US economy. The United States wants to be alone, but Trump is ripping off everywhere. It seems that the biggest obstacle to the American economy is from their Mr. President.