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[SMM Review] Nonferrous black hand in hand iron ore rose 4 per cent thread rose 2 per cent
Jun 11,2019 09:59CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM6 news on the 11th: in early trading, the whole line rose, Shanghai tin rose more than 1%, Shanghai copper rose 0.9%, Shanghai lead rose 0.71%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.5%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.4%, Shanghai nickel rose slightly, black also rose across the board, iron ore soared 4%. Thread up 2%, hot roll up 1.7%, coking coal up more than 1%, coke up 0.8%.

The tight supply is expected to inject upward momentum into copper prices, the automaker said in a report on Monday. Dry weather in Zambia, demonstrations and protests by indigenous Peruvian peoples and labour negotiations at Codelco in Chile are all likely to lead to tighter copper supplies in the coming months. According to the SMM survey, in May 2019, the opening rate of the SMM primary lead smelter in China was 63.03%, down 2.33% from April, and up 3.38% from the same period last year. The survey involved 46 enterprises and a production capacity of 4.691 million tons. According to SMM research, in May, the maintenance and recovery of primary lead smelting enterprises went hand in hand, such as Yunnan Chihong, etc. At the same time, Hunan Jingui, Yinxing, Chifeng Mountain Gold, Silver and lead entered the maintenance one after another in the middle and late May, increasing less and decreasing more. Refined tin production in May was 13734 tons, down 1.27 per cent from April. In May, the output of most smelters was relatively stable, and some smelters reduced their production due to the shortage of tin ore and waste materials, while the output of some tin factories in Jiangxi decreased in May due to equipment maintenance, but normal production has now returned to normal. In May, the national nickel pig iron decreased by 0.31 per cent to 47800 nickel tons, an increase of 28.13 per cent over the same period last year. In terms of taste, the output of high nickel pig iron in May decreased by 1.58 to 41000 nickel tons compared with April. Although the output of large factories in Shandong continues to be released, due to the impact of environmental protection at the end of May in Shandong and Jiangsu, factories have been overhauled in North and South China. The increment was offset and production fell.

Iron ore rose again, with domestic iron ore port stocks falling for five weeks to 121.74 million tons, the lowest since late January 2017, but downstream demand continued to be strong. From the point of view of the disk, the K line is always running above the middle rail of the Bolin belt, keeping strong, the EMA multi-head arrangement pattern has not changed, the iron ore uplink still has the imagination space. In terms of steel, the current demand is mainly affected by off-season factors, but this year, the overall demand is relatively strong, after a continuous decline in profits, maintenance expectations are enhanced, steel production is expected to gradually decline, and the price of iron ore at the cost end is high. At present, it is mainly wide shock.

Crude oil fell more than 1%, trade tensions between China and the United States continue to affect crude oil demand, on the other hand, Saudi Arabia and Russia have not yet agreed to extend the production reduction agreement.

Today's forecast:

Copper: copper prices are now back to last Wednesday's high, but the above $5880 / ton position is still under pressure, copper market fundamentals to push copper prices continue to push up the impulse can not be enough, so waiting for the macro environment to improve to drive copper prices to continue to push up the key position. Spot imports of copper inflows yesterday, prices significantly lower, today's market prices sharply higher, high prices will curb the market transaction sentiment, so it is expected that the quotation is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that today's Lun Copper 5850 $5900 / ton, Shanghai Copper 46300 / ton 46800 yuan / ton, spot water 80-liter 150 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will try to return to its Wansi position today, running at 13800 to 14100 yuan per ton and 10 to 30 yuan per ton for the current month.

Lead: Lun lead closed against the positive line, maintaining an upward trend, short-term test above the $1900 barrier pressure. Lun lead touched the high level of the box platform appeared obvious throwing pressure, short-term breakthrough needs to cooperate with the effective release of trading volume, otherwise Shanghai lead or high down, at the same time need to be cautious of the external market to continue to strengthen.

Zinc: every other day, LME zinc stocks recorded an increase of 875 tons, resulting in a certain degree of pressure on zinc prices, intra-day or continued weak finishing, test 5-day EMA support, running in the range of $2460 to $2510 / ton. Shanghai zinc received a cross star overnight. Under the support of the current strong back structure, the strength of the lower support is still obvious, but in the case of subsequent refinery increment, the cumulative warehouse is still expected, and the follow-up action is still to be considered. Within a day or finishing operation in the range of 20000 to 20500 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic to 1906 contract paste 40-flat water, double Yan liter water 10-liter water 60.

Tin: support is expected to be around $18700 / ton below Lunxi and around $19500 / ton above. It is estimated that the lower support of tin in Shanghai will be around 143500 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance will be around 146000 yuan / ton. Spot market, Shanghai tin last night Changyang rose, is expected to maintain the mainstream trading price today at 143000 to 145000 yuan / ton.

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