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June 10 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
Jun 10,2019 19:06CST
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Source:SMM
June 10 SMM basic Metals spot Trading Day Review
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today, Yapanlun Copper opened at US $5815 / ton, and its center of gravity shifted slightly after the opening. The initial probe was down US $5801.5 / ton, and it was close to US $5800 / ton. After a short-term drop, the domestic trade data for May showed a good domestic trade environment. Confidence was boosted and the dollar hovered low. Copper prices pulled up in a straight line, up $5838 a tonne, and then kept their centre of gravity at a high of $5829 a tonne until they reached European trading, and copper prices tried to explore again. Due to the obvious low recovery of the US dollar, Lun Copper was blocked and the upward force was insufficient, which quickly fell back to US $5815 per ton and rebounded after a short-term probe. At 17-30, bronze was up 29 cents, or 0.50 percent, at $5816.5 a tonne, with the dollar index at 96.845 and crude oil at $54.03 a barrel. The weak performance of the evening economic data is expected to continue to put off the current pressure on copper prices. At present, the 10-day moving average (EMA) on the sun receiving entity of Luntong has not been achieved. The double line of MACD index forms a positive upward crossing in the low position, the green column initially turns red, and there is a certain degree of benefit on the technical side. Wait for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether the copper can break through $5840 a tonne at night. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 46130 yuan per ton in the morning, and after the opening of trading, the trading level fell to the lowest of 46050 yuan per ton in the day, and then the short position withdrew from the market, and the market quickly pulled up, rising to an intraday high of 46330 yuan per ton after a small concussion at 46220 yuan per ton. And in the high small consolidation, afternoon trading slightly down to 46230 yuan / ton, and then the center of gravity continued to move up, and in 46230 between 46320 yuan / ton shock finishing, the end of the day closed at 46250 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up 0.43 per cent. Today, Shanghai Copper 1907 contract position decreased by 2312 hands to 209000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 70, 000 hands to 57000 hands. Shanghai Copper 1908 contract today increased its position by 7726 hands to 208000 hands. Shanghai Copper 1907 and 1908 contract positions are close to each other, with a gap of only about 1000 hands. Pay attention to the monthly change of the main contract. The Shanghai Copper Index rose 1964 hands to 617000 today, while trading volume fell 177000 hands to 182000. Affected by the expected US interest rate cut and the weak US economic data before the festival, copper prices fell below the 46000 yuan / ton mark, falling to the lowest level since 2019. Today, short sellers relatively recognized the low copper prices, and the positions were cut and left the market obviously. The overall market price rose slightly. However, due to the strong global risk aversion caused by the trade war, the macroeconomic gap limits the upward space for non-ferrous metals, and there is still some pressure on the strength of copper prices. The technical KDJ indicators are cross-positive, which slightly supports the copper price. In the evening, waiting for the guidance of the outside market, test whether Shanghai copper can stand firm and break through 46300 yuan / ton. Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai is quoted for 90 to 170 yuan per ton of water, 46160 yuan to 46340 yuan per ton of copper for flat water and 46220 yuan to 46400 yuan per ton for copper in water. Shanghai copper lows rebounded slightly to 46200 yuan / ton line. On the first day after the festival, it was heard that imported copper had arrived in the warehouse, and in the morning, the holder continued the pace of quotation before the festival, and the quotation increased by 110 yuan to 170 yuan per ton, but there were many quotations in the market, but there was not enough interest in buying, and the holders' willingness to cash in gradually became stronger, and the price space was magnified. The price of good copper from 170 yuan / ton to 140 yuan / ton is reduced to 140 yuan / ton, and the quotation from 110 yuan / ton is reduced to less than 100 yuan / ton before there is centralized trading. Wait and see downstream, wet copper quoted water 20 to 40 yuan / ton and there is still room for pressure. The main reason is that inventory increases, market consumption is weak, market risk aversion vigilance is still high, the market is difficult to quickly digest imported copper, rising water may still have room for downward adjustment. In the afternoon, the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai continued to move up, and there were differences in the performance of the holders. Some of them were eager to cash in when the plate was high, but the high-quality large enterprises had no intention of eagerly selling the goods and still remained unmoved by the price range in the morning. In the afternoon, copper water 80 to 90 yuan / ton, good copper water 130 to 150 yuan / ton, transaction range slightly raised to 46300 to 46420 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum opened at US $1760 / ton in the morning. It fluctuated in a narrow range around US $1762 / ton in the early part of the Asian session. The shock at the end of the day fell to the lowest level in the day of US $1752.5 / ton, refreshing the low level since January 2017. the trend is relatively weak. After entering the European trading session, Lun Aluminum was blocked in its upward exploration along the 5-day moving average, with the highest reaching only around US $1762 per tonne. By 18:05, Lun Aluminum had softened slightly from its high to close at US $1758 per ton, up US $4 per ton. Rose 0.2%, recorded a small negative line, the day K line is below all the EMA, short position increase today, the day KDJ third line continues to fall. The macro atmosphere is still not good in the near future, and the cost of overseas aluminum alumina is not expected to change, aluminum prices continue to fall to refresh the lowest level in two years, and is expected to maintain a weak posture in the evening.

The 1907 contract of Shanghai Aluminum main Company opened at 13950 yuan / ton in the morning, and recorded a cross star at the beginning of trading, the lowest point in a day of 13915 yuan / ton, refreshing the lowest price since May 7. relying on the lower 5-day moving average, it rose slightly to 13975 yuan / ton with a narrow range of concussion. The highest position only briefly touched 13990 yuan / ton, and the trend within the day was not strong. In the afternoon, it changed its wandering attitude and began to fall below the daily moving average. Although it stopped at a low of 13930 yuan / ton, it finally closed at a low point of 13940 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton. The trading volume decreased by 33676 hands to 98272 hands, and the position decreased by 522 hands to 218000 hands, closing at the Xiaoyin line. At this point, the K line fell completely below all EMA, and the lower shadow line touched the lower track of Brin Channel, and the Daily MACD Green Line lengthened. KDJ, three lines down. In terms of intra-day macro data, although exports were better than expected in May, there were some export leads, and there were no obvious signs of a boost in aluminum prices. We were concerned about the changes in long short positions in the evening and the impact of the market atmosphere. Given the bearish expectations of consumption after June, aluminium prices are unlikely to recover sharply in the evening.

The opening of aluminum trading in the current month was dominated by interval concussion. The spot trading price in Shanghai was between 14000 and 14020 yuan / ton, and the flat water on the plate was up 20 yuan / ton, which was about 30 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival. The Wuxi transaction price was between 14000 and 14020 yuan / ton. The transaction price in Hangzhou is between 14020 and 14040 yuan per ton. Today, there is an adequate supply of goods in the market, and traders are more active in shipping. Some traders take into account the fact that the supply may be expanded at a later stage, the willingness to receive goods has also been significantly increased, and the overall trading is active. As prices continue to decline, downstream manufacturers began to wait and see, although there is a certain replenishment after the festival, receiving goods is OK, but the purchasing strength is obviously not as good as before the festival. Today, the overall transaction in East China is better. Afternoon aluminum shock leakage, a small number of transactions between market traders concentrated in 13990 between 14010 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere has become light, the transaction is rare.

Lead: within a day, Lun lead opened at US $1845 / tonne. In the Asian session, Lun lead consolidated along the US $1848 / ton line and entered the European session. Encouraged by the strong trend of internal trading, Lun lead once climbed to US $1866 / ton. However, it was difficult to break through the 40-day moving average above, and the pressure on Lun lead fell back to US $1858 / tonne platform concussion. As of 16-54, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $1858 / tonne, up US $17.50 / ton, or 0.95 per cent. Lun lead temporarily closed the Xiaoyang line and ran near the middle rail of Brin Road. Although the LME lead 0-3 liter sticker was of back structure, the water rise was narrowed, and the LME lead inventory increased by nearly 800t, which at one point suppressed the confidence of the market to continue to be long. If the US finger continues to be strong at night, the lead may run within the range formed by the 10-or 40-day moving average.

Within a day, the main 1907 contract for lead in Shanghai was opened at 16015 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the plate, Shanghai lead ran along the 16075 yuan / ton line, and later, stimulated by the news that more than 2,000 tons were affected by the maintenance of electrolytic lead refineries, some bulls tried to pull up the lead price. The lead price shock platform moved up to around 16195 yuan / ton, hitting 16275 yuan / ton during the period, and finally closed at 16220 yuan / ton, up 155yuan / ton, an increase of 0.96%, and the position was reduced by 16195 hands to 46078 hands. Shanghai lead reported long foot Zhongyang line, the 5-day EMA turned upward, and with the 10-day EMA to form a golden fork, but the above 40-day EMA suppression still exists, pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can break through the suppression platform at night.

In Shanghai market, 16210 yuan / ton of lead in the south is quoted at 30 yuan / ton for 1906 contract, 16230 yuan / ton for 1906 contract, 16260 yuan / ton for sands and 80 yuan / ton for 1906 contract. Changxing market copper crown 16210 yuan / ton, 1906 contract water 30 yuan / ton quotation. In the early stage, due to the brief opening of the import ratio, a small amount of imported refined lead flowed into the Shanghai market, Harbin lead reported 16065 yuan / ton, and the discount to the 1906 contract was 115yuan / ton. Futures fast upward, holders actively shipment, and downstream market consumption is depressed, some storage enterprises wait and see carefully, bulk single market transactions are few.

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 16215 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 40 yuan / ton; lead price shock higher, but storage enterprises are still mainly wait-and-see, the market transaction is light. Henan Yuguang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli, Wanyang 16175 to 16205 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead to 30 yuan / ton quoted price; lead price shock is strong, rigid demand replenishment of enterprises, market trading is general. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16225 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton (traders), river copper 16205 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead water 30 yuan / ton quotation; Yunnan area revitalized 15845 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 330yuan / ton. Lead prices are rising rapidly, refineries are actively shipping, but the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, the purchasing mood is not high.

Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $2489.5 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, the daily average of zinc fell to US $2474 per ton, and rose strongly after finding support on the first line nearby. After reaching US $2511 / ton, it fell back slightly to US $2500 per ton. In the run-up to European trading, the US dollar accelerated to recover, and the support of the daily moving average was detected in a straight line, and then rose again to US $2510 per tonne. However, the suppression of the 10-day moving average appeared, and the pressure on Len Zinc fell all the way down to US $2478.5 per ton. After a little repair, just as LME zinc stocks recorded a small increase, zinc prices fell again, closing down $2480, or 0.2 per cent, at $2480, or 0.2 per cent, at 16-22. Zinc in Geneva recorded two consecutive negatives, and LME zinc stocks increased by 875 tons, an increase of 0.87 percent, resulting in a certain degree of pressure on zinc prices. However, in the case of a sharp increase in write-off warehouse receipts in the previous period, the market still has expectations for a subsequent reduction in zinc stocks. It is expected that there will be no deep fall at night, and it may run in the 5-10-day EMA channel as a whole.

The main 1908 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 20205 yuan / ton within a day. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc opened high and walked low. After stepping back on the 20120 yuan / ton line, it rose slightly and ran around the daily average. Subsequently, the short position left the market substantially to boost the upward touch of 20415 yuan / ton of Shanghai zinc, but failed to stand firm. Shanghai zinc pressure fell back to the 20-day moving average, near the European trading session, dragged down by the external market, Shanghai zinc down near the opening price, and then quickly rose to 20280 yuan / ton first-line small consolidation, the end of the day fell slightly to pierce the daily average. Giving back some of its gains during the day, it closed up 20255 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton, or 0.02 percent, from the previous trade, with trading volume down 180000 hands to 148000 hands and positions up 396 hands to 252000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc recorded two consecutive days, and the MACD index formed a gold fork, indicating that Shanghai zinc has an upward trend for the time being, and the decision of the United States to impose tariffs on Mexico has been suspended, and other news has alleviated certain macro pessimism in the market, but domestic production has continued to recover. During the day, the social inventory of Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin recorded a small increase, but the consumption has not improved significantly, the action on Shanghai zinc is still to be considered, and it is expected that Shanghai zinc will run near the 20-day moving average at night.

Shanghai 0 # zinc mainstream transaction 21100 21240 yuan / ton, Shuangyan, Chihong 2140 21280 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary June discount 60-discount 40 yuan / ton; Shuangyan, Chi Hong discount 20 yuan / ton-flat water. 1 # the mainstream transaction was 21050 to 21,180 yuan per ton. Zinc futures are higher, the monthly difference is slightly higher, smelters ship normally, market shipments are dominant, and trading orders are relatively active in the morning market, and transactions are relatively active with an average net price of 10 yuan per ton. Shengtianshui quotation from the discount 30-discount 20 yuan / ton under the expansion to discount 50-discount 40 yuan / ton transaction is still weak, the receiver looks at the weak rising water waiting mood is stronger. After entering the second trading period, after the cost is determined, the trader further adjusts the price to the discount 60-50 yuan / ton. Due to the arrival of delivery, the spot transfer is relatively appropriate, and some of the consignors actively receive the goods at a low price to stimulate part of the transaction. Rising water stabilized but the recovery of transactions is relatively limited, downstream fear of high wait-and-see, waiting for delivery after the end of the market, only to do just the need to purchase, at the same time the transaction is flat, not as good as last Friday.

The mainstream transaction of 0 # zinc in Guangdong was 21060-21280 yuan / ton, and the Guangdong market was maintained near Pingshui compared with the Shanghai stock market. The rising water of Shanghai zinc 1907 contract is about 480 yuan / ton. Zinc low operation, refinery normal shipment, early in the morning, the monthly difference expanded, the market for the quotation is more confused, mostly quoted in the average price, or average price-10, contribute to a small number of transactions. Entering the second trading period, the market pricing is about 500yuan / ton for Shanghai Zinc 1907 contract. However, after the festival, the willingness to replenish the reservoir was not good, and after the superimposed long single demand was basically saturated, the rising water recorded a further downward trend, and it was reported that the rising water for the Shanghai Zinc 1907 contract was around 480 yuan / ton. However, with the widening of the monthly difference, the price in the lower reaches waited for the price to fall. The overall procurement has not improved, but the holder rising water is not willing to continue to loose down, the market transaction stalemate. Trading in Guangdong is mediocre today. 0# Kirin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 21060 21280 yuan / ton.

The mainstream of 0 # zinc ingots in Tianjin market is sold at 21130 to 22640 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of 0 # ordinary brands is sold at 21130 to 21320 yuan / ton. The discount for 1906 contract is 100 to Pingshui, and the Tianjin market is flatter than Shanghai stock market since last Thursday. The disk is pulling up, the smelter is actively shipping, the circulation of goods in the market is abundant, and the holder takes the initiative to discount the price and actively ship the goods, and the early quotation is concentrated near the discount of 50-Pingshui to the 1906 contract, but because the market consumption is gradually weakening, Superimposed downstream on the zinc price bearish sentiment is stronger, the general willingness to accept goods is low, the follow-up holders for the low-price brand supply to expand the discount again, adjusted to the 06 contract discount of about 100 yuan / ton, after the price adjustment contributed to a small number of transactions. Today, the overall trading atmosphere in Tianjin market has become lighter, the reserve volume before the festival may still need to be consumed, the superimposed disk is more upward, and the willingness to receive goods downstream is weaker. The trading situation in Tianjin today is significantly weaker than that before the festival. 0 # Zijin, Hongye, lark, Chihong, Xiyan, etc., were sold at 2130 to 21320 yuan / ton, and 1 # Zijin, Chihong and Hongye were sold at 21080 to 21270 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $19205 / ton today, trading in the Asian session was light and generally remained volatile near the opening price. After the opening of the European trading, Lunxi fell under pressure to stop US $19100 / ton and then hit lower and rose again. As of 17-30, the latest price was US $19170 / ton, which was a small negative line, and the lower part of the entity was supported by the 5-day EMA. Below Lunxi is expected to support the 10-day moving average near $19000 / ton, above the 20-day moving average top, short-term or in the range between the EMA concussion. The news was light this evening, with a recent focus on the May PPI annual rate (%) in the United States on Tuesday.

Shanghai tin main 1909 contract this morning after the opening of 143530 yuan / ton, early trading to noon during the period to maintain the opening price near the shock finishing. In the afternoon, due to the dual factors of long position increase and short departure, tin rose sharply in Shanghai, climbing to an intraday high of 144440 yuan / ton, then fell back slightly, and finally closed at 144300 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.7 per cent. The trading volume was 12288, an increase of 1046. The position was 43230 hands, an increase of 470hands. Today, Shanghai tin overall showed a concussion rising trend, to close to the positive line, the physical part is located near the 10-day moving average, below by the 5-day EMA support. It is estimated that the support below Shanghai tin is 142500 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance level is near the 20-day moving average of 144800 yuan / ton.

Shanghai tin main 1909 contract shock upward in the afternoon. Spot market, the mainstream trading price of 142500 144000 yuan / ton this morning, Shanghai tin market rose in the afternoon, the fixed price of the low price of small plate price rose to 142800 yuan / ton, other prices have not changed. Today, as downstream enterprises enter the off-season, coupled with a small amount of stock before the Dragon Boat Festival, the spot market transaction atmosphere is light. Set Yunxi liter water 100 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word sticker 500 yuan / ton, small brand sticker 800 yuan / ton.

Nickel: the nickel sub-plate opened at US $11640 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, it fluctuated upward, touching US $11850 / ton, and then fell slightly back to the US $11760 / ton line. In the middle of the day, the center of gravity of nickel was arranged horizontally around $11760 a tonne. In the afternoon, Lennie fell below the daily average, concussion down to the opening price near the narrow range fluctuations. As of 17 / 00, it was quoted at US $11665 / ton. In the evening, we will be concerned about whether Lennie can stabilize at the US $11700 / ton barrier. At night, attention should be paid to the year-on-year data on the manufacturing output ring and the industrial output ring in the UK in April.

Shanghai nickel 1907 opened at 95600 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, bulls increased positions, Shanghai nickel shock upward, touch high 96950 yuan / ton, and then slightly fell back to 96400 yuan / ton line. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel was supported by the daily average, and the center of gravity fluctuated over a narrow range around the 5-day moving average of 96400 yuan / ton, closing at 96230 yuan / ton, up 610yuan / ton, or 0.64%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume was reduced by 522000 hands to 304000 hands, and positions by 6300 hands to 175000 hands. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Ni 1907 contract ended in the upper shadow line Xiaoyang line, the upper shadow line has broken through the 5-day moving average, the daily line technology KDJ opening converges. In the evening, pay attention to the Shanghai nickel shock consolidation state, whether it can break through the 5-day moving average.

SMM1# electrolytic nickel 96650 to 97700 yuan / ton. In the morning, Russian nickel is more common than Wuxi 1906 water, individual traders reported a discount of 50 yuan / ton, but the source of goods is not much. Compared with Wuxi 1906 contract, Jinchuan nickel generally reported a water rise of 1000 yuan to 1, 100 yuan per ton. On Monday, the market price rebounded, traders feedback transaction is light, mainly due to the absolute price rise led to downstream procurement caution, and last week downstream has been actively stocked, there is still inventory consumption. In the early trading session, before the price rose sharply, there were a small number of transactions. With the sudden rise in prices, the transaction becomes worse, but the holders are basically dominated by rising water. Jinchuan ex-factory price quoted 97500 yuan / ton, up 1100 yuan / ton from Friday, the mainstream transaction at 96600-97700 yuan / ton. Nickel prices continued to fall in the afternoon, but the overall price is still higher than before the festival, downstream enthusiasm is still not high, but the holder is still rising. The mainstream transaction is 96300 to 97700 yuan / ton.

 

 

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