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[SMM Daily Review] Nonferrous metal rose as a whole, Shanghai Aluminum alone fell, and the firepower of black crude oil rose sharply all over the line.
Jun 10,2019 16:32CST
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Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM6 10 month news: by the end of the day, non-ferrous overall rose, Shanghai aluminum only fell 0.5%, Shanghai zinc collar rose 1.35%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1%, Shanghai tin rose 0.7%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.64%, Shanghai copper rose 0.43%. Black rose across the board, iron ore soared 3.18%, coking coal rose 2.8%, coke rose 0.66%, hot coil and thread rose slightly.

Non-ferrous metals have rebounded today, but the decline is difficult to change. The international and domestic environment is tight, and the trade war has made global investors face great uncertainty. Global economic expectations have fallen again and again. At the same time, domestic empty factors have gathered, the manufacturing industry has fallen below the withered line, and real estate has insisted on housing without speculation. As the downstream enters the off-season of consumption, the short-term weakness of non-ferrous metals is still the same. On June 10, SMM counted the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China (including SHFE warehouse receipt): 222000 tons in Shanghai, 401000 tons in Wuxi, 79000 tons in Hangzhou, 91000 tons in Gongyi and 254000 tons in the South China Sea. Tianjin 53000 tons, Linyi 8000 tons, Chongqing 23000 tons, consumer aluminum ingot inventory totaled 1.131 million tons, down 17000 tons from last Thursday.

Iron ore prices rose sharply and the market is expected to continue to be tight, with data showing that iron ore stocks in Chinese ports shrank further to 121 million tons, the lowest level since late January 2017, and demand rebounded again. In addition, Brazil's Vale said recently that it will spend US $1.9 billion to shut down its nine tailings dams as part of its adjustment measures following the dam break disaster at the beginning of the year. According to the General Administration of Customs, China imported 83.753 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate in May, an increase of 2.981 million tons over the previous month, down 11.0 percent from the same period last year. From January to May, China imported a total of 423.916 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate, down 5.2 percent from the same period last year. In May, China exported 879000 tons of coke, an increase of 297000 tons over the previous month, an increase of 4.6 percent over the same period last year. From January to May, China exported a total of 3.464 million tons of coke, down 9.7 percent from the same period last year. In May 2019, China exported 5.743 million tons of steel, down 583000 tons from the previous month, down 16.5 percent from January to May, an increase of 2.5 percent over the same period last year. In May, China imported 982000 tons of steel, down 18000 tons from the previous month, down 13.1 percent from January to May. From January to May, China imported 4.878 million tons of steel, down 13.4 percent from the same period last year.

Crude oil rose more than 4 per cent and Saudi Arabia said OPEC was close to reaching a deal to extend production cuts, although traders said concerns about the state of the global economy and its impact on fuel demand were still dampening sentiment in the oil market.

SMM analyst's brief comment on June 10:

Aluminum: the 1907 contract of Shanghai Aluminum main Company opened at 13950 yuan / ton in the morning, and the cross star was recorded at the beginning of trading, and the gold needle reached its lowest point in 13915 yuan / ton in a day, refreshing the lowest price since May 7. supported by the lower 5-day EMA to 13975 yuan / ton, a narrow range of shocks. The highest position only briefly touched 13990 yuan / ton, and the trend within the day was not strong. In the afternoon, it changed its wandering attitude and began to fall below the daily moving average. Although it stopped at a low of 13930 yuan / ton, it finally closed at a low point of 13940 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton. The trading volume decreased by 33676 hands to 98272 hands, and the position decreased by 522 hands to 218000 hands, closing at the Xiaoyin line. At this point, the K line fell completely below all EMA, and the lower shadow line touched the lower track of Brin Channel, and the Daily MACD Green Line lengthened. KDJ, three lines down. In terms of intra-day macro data, although exports were better than expected in May, there were some export leads, and there were no obvious signs of a boost in aluminum prices. We were concerned about the changes in long short positions in the evening and the impact of the market atmosphere. Given that today's decline in aluminium inventories is narrower than last week's decline, superimposed by negative expectations of consumption after June, aluminium prices are unlikely to rise sharply in the evening.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1907 opened at 95600 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, long position, Shanghai nickel shock upward, touch high 96950 yuan / ton, and then slightly fell back to 96400 yuan / ton line. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel was supported by the daily average, and the center of gravity fluctuated in a narrow range around the 5-day moving average of 96400 yuan / ton, closing at 96230 yuan / ton. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Ni 1907 contract closed at the Xiaoyang line of the upper shadow line, which has broken through the 5-day moving average, up 610 yuan per ton, or 0.64 percent, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the trading volume was reduced by 522000 hands to 304000 hands. Reduce your position by 6300 to 175000. The opening of the daily line technology KDJ converges. In the evening, pay attention to the Shanghai nickel shock consolidation state, whether it can break through the 5-day moving average. At night, attention should be paid to the year-on-year data on the manufacturing output ring and the industrial output ring in the UK in April.

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