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Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.6.3 to 2019.6.6)
Jun 6,2019 19:17CST
translation
Source:SMM
Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.6.3 to 2019.6.6)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM6 6 June news:

Affected by the weak US economic data superimposed by Fed dovish officials on Monday, Powell hinted that interest rate cuts were possible and that US factory orders were not performing well. The dollar continued to fall below the 97 mark, falling 96.741 at one point, supporting the recovery of base metal exploration. However, the weakness of the economic environment still leads to the dominance of domestic short sellers. The recovery of basic metals is difficult, with SMMI falling by 0. 99%, led by nickel, SMMI.Ni falling by 2.93%, and nickel falling by more than US $300 per ton for three consecutive weeks. Shanghai nickel biggest decline of 4%, spot Jinchuan nickel rising water, downstream in the market sharp decline, buy Xing to improve, spot performance is slightly stronger than futures. The copper operating platform continues to move down, with the lowest falling below US $5800 per ton and the Shanghai copper falling below 46000 yuan per tonne. Although the spot water rises, it is difficult to alleviate the overall weak environment, with SMMI.Cu falling 1.03 per cent per week. Zhou Nailun zinc once fell below $2500 after the long-term accumulation is not easy to solve, the domestic difficult struggle in 20000 yuan / ton above, spot small discount, the transaction first suppressed and then rose, SMMI.Zn fell 1 per cent per week. Under the premise that the future consumption expectations are gradually weak and the macro mood is weak, it is finally difficult to defend all four levels and break down, but the spot still insists on a small increase in water, with a weekly drop of 0.85 percent in SMMI.Al, Shanghai lead first suppresses and then rises, and returns to the sixth line a week later. Refineries gradually appear maintenance, spot prices rise, but consumption has not improved, SMMI.Pb weekly decline of 0.46 per cent. Lunxi stopped falling, but it is difficult to drive Shanghai tin to recover synchronously, spot rising water to maintain stability is difficult to pull the activity of trading, SMMI.Sn is flat. Next week, the economic data at home and abroad are concentrated, and the data are expected to be weak. The global economic downturn makes it difficult for the US dollar to recover significantly in the short term. The overall market is still in a bearish mood, but the fundamental differentiation of each category of metals is still obvious. Next week's ups and downs will also be further divided.

 

Copper: this week, Lun Copper showed a trend of raising and then suppressing, and the center of gravity continued to move down. Brad, the FOMC voting committee, which was long biased earlier this week, said the Fed could soon have reason to cut interest rates, with the market expecting a rate cut of close to 98 per cent by the end of the year. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also said that the Federal Reserve will take appropriate measures to maintain sustained economic expansion. Market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates to release liquidity increased, and the number of US ADP jobs fell to its lowest level since March 2010. the market's risk aversion preference for the dollar fell somewhat, with the dollar falling by 0.52% on a day-to-day basis. From a high of 97.85 at the beginning of the week, it fell below the 97 mark, down 96.741, and Lun Copper fell sharply on the dollar at the beginning of the week from a high of $5903.5 a tonne in the week to a high of $5903.5 a tonne. But then the United States announced that crude oil stocks unexpectedly rose nearly 7 million barrels, crude oil plummeted 2.38%, and copper was dumped and fell below the $5800 / tonne mark, down $5789 / tonne. Lun Copper once again lost all the recent EMA, Zhou du K line has 7 Yin, MACD green column continues to lengthen. This week, Lentong reduced its position mainly by bulls, with its position reduced by 3955 to 303000.

At the beginning of the Shanghai copper week, it should be affected by the continuing stalemate between China and the United States. Market confidence was slightly inadequate. Copper prices fell by 46060 yuan per ton, but then due to the weakness of the US dollar, the external market led Shanghai copper to rise. In addition, the PMI50.2 of China's Caixin manufacturing industry was higher than expected in May. Boost market confidence, so copper prices rose to a high of 46630 yuan / ton, but failed to hold steady at the high, long positions out of the market, copper prices poured down, fell below the 46000 yuan / ton mark, down 45830 yuan / ton. The center of gravity is still in the expanding position under Brin's lower rail, and there is still continuous downward pressure on the technical side. This week, the overall trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index fell by 325000 hands to 990000 hands, and the position volume decreased by 9994 hands to 614000 hands. The main position was reduced, and the position increment was moved back to the 1908 contract.

At the beginning of this week, due to the decline of the spot market, the holders were willing to lift the water, and the lower reaches of the market slightly increased the transaction activity of the market. At the beginning of the week, it was difficult to find a low price source of goods. At the beginning of the week, the quoted price was 60 yuan / ton for rising water and 130 yuan / ton for rising water. Subsequently, due to the limitation of the normal circulation of goods in the spot market, the risk intention pushed up the spot water all the way, and by the end of the week, it had been pulled up to 130 yuan per ton of water and 190 yuan per ton of water. The market risk aversion sentiment is strong, although the transaction is restrained by the risk factor and the high rising water, the atmosphere is light, but the holder's willingness to lift the water remains the same. Traders tend to be cautious, with high prices but no rush to cash out, while downstream purchases are on demand.

 

Aluminum: this week, Lunal continued its weak posture last week, running under the Brin Channel for several days in a row. At the beginning of the week, it was difficult to break through the US $1800 / ton barrier resistance level after briefly touching the high level of US $1811.5 / ton at the beginning of the week. The center of gravity of the Japanese K line rose one after another. The K-line fell near $1766 a tonne for three weeks, and as of Thursday, Lun closed up $5, or 0.28 per cent, at $1771.5 a tonne. Under the influence of the news of the resumption or production of Hydro and EGA alumina plants abroad, Lunal is facing a weak supply and demand situation, so the trend is weak, and it is expected that it will be difficult to rebound significantly in the short term. Next week, we will focus on the impact of macro data such as the US unemployment rate in May, May PPI year-on-year and China's imports and exports in May on the market atmosphere.

Shanghai aluminum concussion sank this week, the main company 1907 contract opened at the beginning of the week around 14150 yuan / ton, two days before the opening of the trend is relatively weak, falling below the 10-day moving average, some short positions on Wednesday pushed aluminum prices back up around 14105 yuan / ton. However, against the background of the empty macro atmosphere, the market's expectations for future consumption are on the low side, and it is difficult for aluminum prices to rise substantially. On Thursday, they directly fell below the 10, 000 mark and closed at the lowest level of 13950 yuan / ton in the week, where they continued to fall below the 60-day moving average. This week's K line closed at the middle negative line, so far recorded three weeks of continuous yin, although it is still located in the upper rail range of Brin channel, but the center of gravity is sinking one after another, the weekly MACD red line is shortened, and the third line of KDJ is facing down. From a fundamental point of view, the recent inventory continued to decline, the cost of alumina has stopped falling, but into June facing a gradual decline in consumption heat, short began to significantly increase positions in long-month contracts, aluminum prices are expected to return after the festival upward pressure. Continue to pay attention to fundamental changes and the release of related macro news.

The spot market for aluminum ingots traded better this week. The spot transaction price in Shanghai is between 14030 and 14170 yuan / ton, the flat surface of the current month is between 20 yuan / ton, the Wuxi transaction price is between 14030 and 14170 yuan / ton, and the spot transaction price in Hangzhou is between 14090 and 14190 yuan / ton. There is plenty of goods in the Wuxi market in Shanghai this week. Due to the lack of goods in Hangzhou market, the spot circulation in the market is relatively tight. Because the aluminum price in recent months is still hanging upside down this week, the superimposed rising water is high, the shipment is very active, and a large household does not receive much goods in the East China market this week. The holder also tends to ship more goods before and after the festival considering that the market is unpredictable after the festival. On the whole, traders and middlemen have always been active in the afternoon trading, only slightly tired in the afternoon. Downstream, Monday due to the weekend to replenish the warehouse to consider receiving active, Tuesday on-demand procurement, Wednesday and Thursday, due to the approach of Dragon Boat Festival, superimposed aluminum prices fell compared with the beginning of the week, the psychological range of more acceptable, so the delivery has increased significantly. On the whole, the status of receiving goods downstream this week is significantly better than that of last week.

 

Lead: this week, Lun lead generated power at a low level, closing 4 Lianyang, effectively breaking through the nearly 15-day box operation platform, and running logic behind it. One is that the LME inventory continues to fall, while the LME0-3 is structured into back, and the price difference reaches 39 US dollars / ton. Brush the latest two-year high, second, this week's Fed meeting to the market interpretation of the possibility of a cut in interest rates in the second half of the year, the dollar fell, to some extent to promote the rise of Lun lead; At the beginning of the week, Lun lead was still struggling at $1800, and then the LME0-3 structure quickly changed from congtango to back,. At the same time, the dollar index broke through the 60-day moving average, which was doubly positive to accelerate the upward trend of Lun lead, breaking through the 40-day moving average at one point. And reached as high as US $1882 / ton, brushing the recent one-month high, but due to the involvement of short sellers in the depth of lead, the entry of short positions near the 40-day line is still more active, resulting in the recording of a long film line, as of 15-00 on Thursday. Lun lead was reported at US $1870.5 per ton. The weekly increase was 3.54%. Next week, there will be US PPI, CPI and retail data, which are still not optimistic, with limited momentum to boost the dollar's upside. Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts this year, the market is expected to continue to test the support of US $97 next week, while Lun lead is expected to continue to test the support of US $97 next week. Focus on whether the LME0-3back structure can continue to expand and whether LME lead stocks will be effectively reduced, with an expected operating range of $1840 to $1930 / tonne next week.

The trend of Shanghai lead 1907 contract is much lower than that of Lun lead this week. Although Shanghai lead still continues the box concussion, the overall operating range and intraday volatility show obvious signs of narrowing, and the funds inside and outside the market are becoming more and more cautious. At the beginning of the week, it was rumored that Tianneng, Richie and other battery factories planned to cut production in June, and the short funds lurked near the 20 th line, and then attracted some speculative funds to follow the wind, and the lead price dived downward, once as low as 15860 yuan / ton, and then a few days later. Driven by the continued strength of Lun lead, some speculative short sellers made a profit and left the market, promoting the recovery of Shanghai lead exploration, one after another on the May, 10th, and 20th EMA, and successfully regaining the Wan6. as of Thursday, the Shanghai lead 1907 contract was reported at 16090 yuan per ton. The weekly increase was 1.04%, and the position was reduced by 6130 hands to 46272 hands. Next week, the domestic data concentration, the domestic economy is still in the process of looking for low, there are no obvious signs of recovery; return to the trend of lead prices next week, the contradiction on the supply side lies in the centralized maintenance of electrolytic lead refineries to further reduce the source of deliverable goods; Because of the cost pressure, it is difficult to fully release the production capacity of recycled lead, so the elasticity of lead price lies in consumption, terminal consumption is depressed, storage enterprises reduce production, and consumption expectation is falsified, therefore, on the supply side, the resilience of lead price lies in consumption, terminal consumption is depressed, storage enterprises reduce production, and consumption expectation is falsified. The lead price will continue to fluctuate in the interval next week. The 1907 contract is expected to operate at 15900 to 16350 yuan per ton.

This week spot lead mainstream trading range in 16000 to 16200 yuan / ton this week lead price continued range operation, but due to the terminal consumption downturn, some storage enterprises to reduce production, the market trading is relatively light, storage enterprises more wait and see carefully; In terms of primary lead, some refineries began to overhaul one after another this week, but the compression of supply could not offset the low consumption. As of Friday, the mainstream price of SMM1# lead in refineries was 50 yuan / ton to flat water. Trade is also affected by this, the holder frequently downgraded spot water, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation for 1906 contract flat water to 50 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, refinery production is still in a state of slight loss, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled refined lead to maintain the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton to flat water factory.

 

Zinc: the data performance of all major economies is relatively bleak this week. With the waving of the US tariff stick, the downward pressure on the global economy has increased, and the demand for basic metals has been pressured. In the long run, the expectation of the storage bank of zinc is that the marginal margin of demand will weaken and put pressure on the trend of zinc. This week, Len Zinc fell by US $2500 per ton, and the operating center of gravity moved down to about US $2475 per ton. At the beginning of the week, the zinc was still running around US $2525 per tonne. Close to the European trading period, the global economic data was weak, the marginal deterioration of demand was fermentative, and the current precipice fall of zinc directly broke through the integer barrier of US $2500 per ton. The center of gravity moved down to around $2475 per tonne. Boosted by the decline in the US Index and the continuous increase in write-off warehouse receipts, several attempts to test $2500 per tonne at the integer level fell under pressure. On Friday, driven by domestic buying power, The strong breakthrough operation center of gravity of Lun Zinc has moved up to about US $2515 / ton, and its stability needs to be observed. As of Friday, trading volume increased by 4471 to 42933 and positions increased by 4954 to 258000.

This week, the domestic "squeeze" mood further heated up, Shanghai zinc main contract in the vicinity of 20300 yuan / ton finishing operation after a breakthrough. At the beginning of the week, the macro environment gave rise to a sense of risk aversion. Under the drag of lower external trading, Shanghai zinc fell rapidly to a low of 20080 yuan per ton in the week. After a little repair, the center of gravity rose to 20300 yuan per ton, and the upper and lower space was less than 20080 yuan per ton. The weak trend of the spot market confirms the weak position of consumption, the spot discount weakens the squeeze sentiment, the monthly difference at the beginning of the week is stable at about 350 yuan / ton, the trend of zinc in Shanghai is relatively stable, and the contradiction between the warehouse receipt and the high position in the second half of the week intensifies, and the squeeze sentiment thickens. Shanghai zinc rose strongly, at the same time, the monthly difference further expanded by more than 500 yuan / ton. As of Thursday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index fell 820000 hands to 2.89 million hands, while positions rose 1090 hands to 706000 hands.

This week, the Shanghai market 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1906 contract is stable at the discount 30-discount 10 yuan / ton, Shuangyan, Chihong self-rising water 40 60 yuan / ton to flat water-rising water 30 yuan / ton or so, the Shanghai market 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1906 contract is stable in the discount 30 yuan / ton, Shuangyan and Chihong rising water 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. Imported SMC, Russia to 0 # domestic zinc maintenance discount 30 yuan / ton-discount 10 yuan / ton. This week the smelter shipment is normal, in order to lock the disk profit trader shipment is also more positive, the buyer's market sentiment is not reduced. In addition to the more active long order transactions among traders, as the delivery date is approaching, the delivery cost is gradually narrowed, and the recipient's willingness to receive goods at a low price becomes stronger. However, the holder mostly determines the low price based on the cost line, and the market trader occupies the dominant position. In the middle of the week, there was a slight drop-down purchase, but the weak demand was a drag, the enthusiasm of the reserve was limited, the moon difference in the second half of the week was further expanded, the activity of trading between traders was strengthened, and the degree of participation in the downstream was weakened. This week, the contribution of inter-trade transactions is mainly trading, and the transaction volume is not much different from that of last week.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1907 contract rose 490 to 510 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market from last week's discount of 60 yuan / ton to near Pingshui. Refinery normal shipment, week downstream continued rigid demand procurement, the demand is flat, mainly due to poor orders, part of the die-casting zinc alloy manufacturers Dragon Boat Festival vacation, so there is no obvious after-festival reserve demand. This week, the main trading volume is contributed by traders, and the overall shipment of the market is still positive. The monthly difference fluctuates obviously this week. In order to avoid deviation, the holder turns to the quotation for the current month, but because of the discount for the current month, the subsequent downward loosening is more limited. During the week, the offer is low and the discount is 40 yuan / ton for the current month, and 30 yuan / ton for the rest of the month, and the overall transaction volume is limited. Taken together, the deal was flat this week, about the same as last week.

This week Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1906 contract discount 50 yuan / ton-liter water 20 yuan / ton nearby, Tianjin stock market than Shanghai stock market last week discount 10 yuan / ton nearby narrowed to Pingshui nearby. Within the week zinc prices down, refineries slightly cherish the sale, the holder actively shipped, just when the disk down when the willingness to receive goods downstream is stronger, coinciding with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the market has a certain low reserve phenomenon. However, since Wednesday, the market has returned to rise, zinc prices have risen, market transactions have obviously weakened, and the fear of falling downstream is stronger, dominated by wait-and-see and inquiry. Most of the market circulation is Hongye Bailinghong and other ordinary brand supply, Zijin and other high-priced brand supply is still scarce this week, so the price is higher, the transaction situation is also relatively low-priced brand supply is better. Overall, within this week, zinc prices fell downstream to pick up more goods, contributing to a certain trading volume this week, but zinc prices rose after the transaction situation is weak, overall, this week's market transaction volume was flat last week.

 

Tin: this week, Lunxi rose and fell back slightly. Wednesday's closing price was $19005 a tonne, up $235a tonne from last Wednesday. The total number of transactions was 591, a decrease of 1234. The number of positions was 17265, an increase of 451hands. On Monday, as the US Markit manufacturing PMI final value data for May and the US ISM manufacturing index for May were lower than expected, the dollar index fell sharply to break the 97-point mark. Coupled with the fact that Lunxi was in a state of overfall in the early days, technical repairs will be carried out in the short term, leading to a sharp rise in Lunxi on Monday, from $18760 / ton to $19180 / ton. On Tuesday, Lunxi, affected by crude oil prices, first suppressed and then rose, rapidly falling to an intraday low of $18825 per ton before bottoming out. On Wednesday, subject to the rise in the dollar index, Lunxi came under pressure to fall slightly.

Shanghai tin overall maintained a low consolidation this week. Thursday's closing price was 143300 yuan per ton, up 160 yuan per ton from last Thursday. The total volume of transactions in the week was 51018, a decrease of 30612. The number of positions was 42760, a decrease of 768. Long and short forces intertwined this week, the sharp rise in the external market failed to effectively drive the Shanghai tin market to rise, only to maintain low consolidation. Shanghai tin went down slightly on Monday due to the entry of some short positions. The bears left the game on Tuesday and their center of gravity rebounded slightly. Wednesday and Thursday closed at the cross.

This week, Shanghai tin overall maintained a low consolidation trend, Shanghai tin spot prices stabilized 142500 144000 yuan / ton. This week, the discount is relatively stable, basically maintained in the set Yunxi Shengshui 100 yuan / ton-flat water, ordinary Yunzi sticker 400 yuan / ton, small brand discount 600 yuan / ton. On Monday, due to the slight decline in prices, the mood of the downstream enterprises gradually thickened, and the buying interest became lighter; on Tuesday, the fixed price supply was more popular than the set order source, and some traders and downstream enterprises received a small amount of goods. Wednesday morning trading rose slightly, buying interest fell back, the afternoon did not significantly improve, Thursday a small number of enterprises to stock up before the festival. The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market this week is general.

 

Nickel: in the first half of the week, the outer plate showed a stepped triple shade, falling from $12000 / tonne to near $11700 / tonne and to an early low. Lun Ni continued to probe on Thursday, falling below its previous low of $11625 a tonne and then quickly rebounding to an earlier low of around $17000 a tonne. As of 16-30 p.m. on Thursday, Lennie closed at the mid-negative line, with positions up 5192 tons to 237000 tons and trading volume down 4125 hands to 33800 hands. The KDJ opening diverges downward.

On just four days of trading this week, Shanghai nickel showed a stepped four days from Monday to Thursday, with Shanghai nickel prices falling below the previous low of 98300 yuan per ton from the previous platform to around 94000 yuan per ton. Then short profits, Shanghai nickel quickly rebounded to around 95700 yuan / ton, closed at the long shadow line on Thursday. Affected by the macro this week, the whole color is generally under pressure. Superimposed nickel supply and demand continues to weaken, supply side: recently, there is a continuous inflow of goods into China, domestic inventories continue to increase, Indonesia's new nickel pig iron production capacity continues to be released. Demand side: the increase in nickel iron production and the reduction in Indonesian stainless steel production have led to an increase in the amount of nickel pig iron flowing back to China, accounting for some of the demand for pure nickel. On the other hand, the domestic downstream 3 series stainless steel output is stable and small and medium-sized, the stainless steel inventory is still in the high position, the steel mill generally feedback to accept the order is not good, the downstream consumption is light. From the supply and demand side, the overall trend of nickel prices is still downward. Shanghai nickel closed at the Dayin line this week, reducing its position by 13800 to 181000, trading volume by 769000 to 2.898 million, and KDJ opening downward.

Spot transactions: this week Russian nickel to Wuxi 1906 contract from last week's discount of 25 yuan / ton to discount of 80 yuan / ton, Jinchuan 1906 contract week average rising water of about 650 yuan / ton, an increase of about 150 yuan / ton compared with last week. Although the Russian nickel overall discount expanded this week, but the discount showed a narrowing trend, and as of Thursday has basically reported 50 to flat water. Mainly due to this week's falling market prices, active spot transactions, downstream enthusiasm for goods to improve. Jinchuan nickel water expansion, mainly due to falling prices led to the improvement of downstream goods, as well as recent logistics reasons, Jinchuan supply is slightly tight. In the early stage, because the absolute price is higher, the downstream basically did not purchase. Market prices have been falling this week, the first half of the week in the first half of the week above 96800 yuan / ton position, has not yet fallen to the heart price, downstream is still more cautious, but Russian-nickel discount 150 yuan / ton is still partially traded. The second half of the week once fell below the previous low, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, in the process of falling 96400 yuan / ton and 95500 yuan / ton concentrated transactions, traders basic report discount 50 yuan / ton or flat water. Jinchuan nickel transactions this week compared with last week also improved, although the rising water has increased, but the absolute price is lower.

 

 

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