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[SMM Review] Powell hinted that the rate cut was slightly supported by the black all-round close higher.
Jun 5,2019 09:59CST
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Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM6 month 5 news: early trading non-ferrous rise and fall mixed, Shanghai lead collar rose 0.8%, Shanghai copper rose 0.5%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.4%, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, Shanghai nickel fell 0.6%, Shanghai tin fell 0.2%, Shanghai lead collar rose 0.8%, Shanghai copper rose 0.5%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.4%, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, Shanghai nickel fell 0.6%, Shanghai tin fell 0.2%. Black closed higher, iron ore, thread rose 0.6%, hot roll rose 0.3%, bifocal slightly higher. The Prev index opened up 0.72 per cent at 2882.94. The Shenzhen Composite Index opened up 0.95 per cent at 8831.13. Gem opened at 1471.95 points, up 1.08 per cent.

From January to March this year, Hebei Province produced 57.53 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 9.61 million tons from a year earlier, accounting for 46.1 percent of the national increase, and 19 percent from a year earlier, twice the national average, Caixin reported. Wu Jingjing, deputy director of the marketing department of the China Iron and Steel Association, explained that one of the important reasons for the sharp increase in production was that Hebei Province did not meet expectations during the heating season. Jinchuan Group Indonesia Jinchuan laterite nickel mine project has made significant progress, Indonesia Jinchuan WP company produced the first furnace of nickel iron. This indicates that Jinchuan Group, which has been developing nickel sulphide ore for more than half a century, has officially entered the field of laterite nickel ore, which has laid a solid foundation for the industrial transformation and upgrading of Jinchuan Group and the realization of sustainable development. From a macro point of view, Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts, the dollar weakened again, non-ferrous metals slightly supported, but overall market sentiment is still pessimistic.

On the iron ore side, experts point out that steel consumption is undoubtedly crucial to the iron ore market, and steel depends on the performance of the future economy. In the future, there are still variables on the supply side of iron ore, and there may be a shortage of supply and demand. At present, the origin of coke is becoming more and more strict, but the coke enterprises are still active, the downstream demand is stable, the enterprise mentality is good, and the short-term operation may be affected by the transformation of steel in the off-peak season.

Today's forecast:

Copper: today's focus on China's Caixin PMI in May and European PMI data, the dollar is now stable at the edge of 97, the market for European risk aversion is expected to increase the preference for the dollar, copper prices still have a lot of upward pressure. Spot market recently driven by risk aversion sentiment all the way up, it is difficult to see a downward trend in the short term, high prices inhibit the enthusiasm of market transactions, so holders continue to push up the water space is limited. It is expected that today's Lun Copper 5850 to 5900 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 46300 to 46700 yuan / ton, spot water 90-liter 150 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: it is expected that the trend of Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate today. Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate between 14000 and 14200 yuan / ton during the day, and the spot will be between 10 and 30 yuan / ton in the current month.

Lead: U. S. economic data slowed in April, the Fed chairman hinted that interest rates may be cut, the dollar fell to 96.9, basic metals generally rose; At the same time, the RBA cut interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, and did not rule out further interest rate cuts. In addition, the World Bank lowered its global economic growth forecast to 2.6%. There was a lot of market concern, and the domestic lead market was overhauled by refineries. However, downstream risk aversion careful mining, trading continued to be depressed, spot lead is expected to rise 75 to 16050 16150 yuan / ton today.

Zinc: the main 1907 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 20360 yuan / ton overnight. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc failed to stand firm after following the high opening of the outer plate. After exploring 20200 yuan / ton, it continued to try to break through the opening position. After failure, it fluctuated to the close around the daily average of 20300 yuan / ton. It closed down 20265 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan per ton, or 0.2 per cent, from the previous transaction, with trading volume at 158000 hands and position down 3178 hands to 263000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc fell four times, the KDJ index turned downward, indicating that the Shanghai zinc action is insufficient, the superimposed spot market has not improved obviously, and the space for Shanghai zinc to rise is limited.

Tin: the lower support is expected to be US $18500 / ton and the upper resistance is US $19500 / ton. It is estimated that the lower support of tin in Shanghai will be around 142000 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance will be around 144500 yuan / ton. Spot market, Shanghai tin last night to maintain a low consolidation, is expected to be the mainstream trading price of 142500 144000 yuan / ton.

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