[SMM Review] increase in production of nickel pig iron? Stainless steel base library? Macroscopic disturbance? After falling below all EMA, how will Shanghai Ni go?

SMM5, April 24: since the beginning of the week, nickel prices have continued to fall after only a slight rebound on Tuesday, and broke all averages on Thursday night, with a low of 96100 yuan per ton, the lowest since May 15.

SMM believes that due to the influence of macro sentiment in the near future, as well as the return of the US dollar to the top of the 98 mark, the internal and external plates are generally under pressure, and the London nickel has fallen below the previous US $11900 / ton first-line dense trading area, and the Shanghai nickel has fallen below all the EMA. The upper pressure is 97500 yuan / ton gate. The downward trend of nickel price has basically formed, but in a short period of time, considering that the expectation of increasing production of nickel pig iron has not been realized, although stainless steel continues to base storage, steel mills have not reduced production, and downstream demand is still there. As a result, it has remained bearish for a long time, and if the macro is stable in the near future, nickel prices may fall after consolidation.

Market voice

Guoxin Futures:

On the nickel side, the INSG recently released a report predicting a global nickel market gap of 84000 tons in 2019, and said that in the next 5-10 years, the revolution in electric vehicles will dominate the direction of the nickel market and drive nickel prices higher. In the short term, In the second quarter, Ni-Fe exceeded expectations, stainless steel stocks in the two places reached a new high, the import window continued to open, and the medium-term fundamentals of nickel prices were still weak. Macroscopically, the Times reported that British Prime Minister Teresa. Mei is expected to announce her resignation on Friday, amid heightened trade conflicts between China and the United States, downward pressure on the global economy and soaring sensitivity in the foreign exchange market, which should be on guard against adjustments in the foreign exchange market that are implicated in the metals market.

Citic Construction Futures:

On the macro side, market expectations have turned worse, US stocks have fallen, risk aversion has warmed up, and non-ferrous metals have generally come under pressure. In addition, the British Prime Minister may resign, the Brexit issue is difficult to bear fruit. Fundamentals, stainless steel anti-dumping to expand the scope of taxation, stainless steel billet will be taxed, which will support the domestic stainless steel price, but the raw material end will be under pressure. In addition, in the context of high prices in steel mills, steel mills finally announced a reduction in production of 316 stainless steel, but the current downstream demand is not obvious, the overall price of stainless steel within the day is stable. Spot transactions of electrolytic nickel continue to be in the doldrums, with traders mainly shipping. Generally speaking, the current industrial chain is still mainly negative, the operation should be cautious. Shanghai nickel 1907 contract reference range 94000 to 98000.

< updating >