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Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.5.6 to 2019.5.10)

iconMay 10, 2019 19:41
Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.5.6 to 2019.5.10)

SMM, May 10 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

This week, following a "Twitter warning" from US President Trump on the progress of the Sino-US trade talks and the determination to raise the tax on imports of US $200 billion from China to 25% on Friday, trade tensions between China and the United States have intensified and market panic has spread. Global stock markets howled, A shares tumbled across the board, Prev lost 2900 points at one point, thousands of stocks fell again, commodities collectively weakened, basic metals fluttered green within the week, SMMI fell nearly 1.6 per cent. Lead led the decline, SMMI.Pb week fell 2.5%, Shanghai lead week fell more than 3%, out of nearly two years of new low, spot lead price in the smelter price rising water, the performance is slightly anti-fall, storage enterprises show bargain receipt. Copper performance period is now two weak, Lun copper fell below all the recent EMA, Shanghai copper in short control, lost all technical support, spot market, holders dump downstream fearful wait-and-see trade cautious lack of speculation, SMMI.Cu weekly drop 1.8%. Zinc and nickel showed similar performance, with weekly declines of about 1.6 per cent for both SMMI.Zn and SMMI.Ni. After the nickel fell below US $12000 per ton in Shanghai, the nickel in Shanghai fell below 96000 yuan, and the spot import window opened, the supply of Russian nickel increased and the rising water decreased. Near the US $2600 platform, Shanghai Zinc has fallen to the integer barrier of 21000 yuan, and the spot rising water has remained stable. In addition to the long single point price, the lower reaches of the market has found an appropriate amount of replenishment, struggling to repair the weak situation of the futures market. Shanghai tin short to comply with the trend, weekly decline of 1.55%, discount slightly narrowed, but spot demand is weak, SMMI.Sn weekly decline of 1%. Aluminum resistance is the best within the week, although macro swaying, but the domestic aluminum inventory continues to decline a large number of sustained decline, spot quotation rose, Chinalco led the low price to receive goods, so far before the SMMI.Al festival has fallen only 0.14%. And become the most reliable variety of metal items. On Friday, the United States raised taxes on Chinese imports by 200 billion, the market reaction was stable, and no further short selling was seen on the disk. Next week, there will still be more data from the United States and domestic markets, and the data are still expected to be good. The recovery of the external dollar may bring new pressure. But domestic data are likely to boost market confidence, or bring the market to a lower recovery to stabilize the repair trend, next week will enter May delivery, metal spot will also follow the delivery rules and rhythm. But the most important macro premise is still the outcome of the Sino-US trade war negotiations and the subsequent impact on the market.

Copper: during May Day, the US ADP employment data for April and the US non-farm employment data for April were both outstanding, the US dollar performance remained stable, and Trump's push after the festival rekindled the Sino-US trade war. At the same time, the US tariff escalation against China was officially implemented on Friday, and copper prices fell under pressure. Lun Copper fell from a pre-May Day high of $6461.5 a tonne until Thursday, when copper prices bottomed out at $6058.5 a tonne, the lowest in nearly three months. Although it was announced this week that changes in EIA crude oil stocks shrank by 3.963 million barrels in the week of May 3, crude oil performance shows that it is at a low and stable stage and has not shown any support for metal prices. At present, Luntong has lost all its recent EMA, the center of gravity is barely in Brin's lower rail, the circumference K is above the pressure 5, 10, 60 day moving average, and the MACD index initially appears green column, double line performance short dead fork. This week, Luntong bulls were forced to cut their positions and leave the market, with short positions falling by more than 2, 000 to more than 290000.

This week, Shanghai copper was affected by the sharp drop in external trading during the holiday season, and the market was full of bearishness. When the holiday returned to the market, it directly jumped sharply, directly falling below the 48000 yuan / ton mark from last week's high of 49080 yuan / ton, and the biggest drop in the day was 1.96%. Subsequently, as the domestic central bank announced that it would lower the target for small and medium-sized banks and release 280 billion yuan of funds, the central bank once again released liquidity to small and medium-sized enterprises, slightly alleviated pessimism about the market, made profits from short sellers, and returned to its high of 48430 yuan per ton. However, as a result of the renewed waves of the Sino-US trade war, short sellers took control of the market again, copper prices led the decline, with a bottom of 47370 yuan per ton over the weekend, Shanghai Copper lost all its recent EMA support, and the Zhoudu K line also showed a clear departure from the recent EMA. The red column of the MACD indicator has narrowed to the point where it is about to turn green. This week, the overall trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index increased by 1.224 million hands to 1.664 million hands, and position volume increased by 45000 hands to 545000 hands, mainly by short positions.

Due to the sharp fall in spot prices at the beginning of the week, holders took into account the cost of holding positions in savings, so the price was quoted as high as 130 yuan / ton for 30-130 yuan per tonne. Macro bearish and weak demand put copper prices in the downward channel. For the time being, there is no signal to stop falling, and the rise of spot prices has led to a lack of confidence in the market to buy, and the futures market has shown no room for price difference in recent months, which has also left speculators at a loss as to what to do, and speculators have bought very little. In addition, due to the abundant supply of goods in the market and the inability to buy, the holders fear that the price will continue to fall, and the import window has been briefly opened this week, thus stimulating the holders to take advantage of the high shipment and vigorously sell the goods for cash, but because of the proximity of contract delivery, The price downgrade space is limited, therefore week small and medium-sized downgrade quotation to the low discount 10-liter water 100 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum rose $8.50 a tonne in four trading days since it began trading on Tuesday, trading at $1813.5 a tonne as of 16:48 Beijing time, up 81 per cent from last week. Trading volume decreased by 34836 hands to 45678 hands, position volume increased by 24540 hands to 714000 hands, mainly to increase positions. Since May, the trend of Lun Aluminum has been mainly affected by the international situation. On Wednesday, the international trade environment worsened, short sellers waited for an opportunity to enter, and Lun Aluminum fell sharply, closing a long shadow line. On Thursday, the first day of the European session, the bottom reached 1784 US dollars per ton. It is the lowest since January 2; The long return of the last two trading days helped Lun Aluminum hit bottom and slowly repair the decline at the beginning of the week. The long upper and lower shadow line Xiaoyang line, located under the main moving average group, hovered near Brin's lower rail. Weekly MACD line turned green, KDJ three lines slightly raised. Lun Aluminum is more resistant than other basic metals and needs to pay close attention to the evolution of macro news at home and abroad, which is expected to fluctuate at $1780 to $1820 per ton next week.

Shanghai aluminium rose for six weeks this week. Driven by bad news and other metals on Monday, Shanghai Aluminum opened low and walked low, falling 250 yuan per ton, forcing bulls to reduce their positions. However, as electrolytic aluminum continued to go to storage, indicating that the fundamentals are still strong, providing momentum for aluminum prices to rise, aluminum prices rose one after another in the last four trading days, closing at 14170 yuan per ton on Friday, repairing the decline at the beginning of the week. Zhou K line closed in a long lower shadow line Xiaoyang line, above the pressure 60-day moving average, weekly trading volume increased by 404000 hands to 672000 hands, position decreased by 64578 hands to 224000 hands, mainly to long positions. The week K line tried to break through Brin's orbit, and the MACD red line was flat compared with last week. Non-ferrous internal market fell more and less this week, aluminum is still resistant to decline, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run at 14000-14250 yuan / ton next week, aluminum is still a favorite product for bulls.

This week, aluminum spot trading is still better than other metal varieties, but the higher transaction activity is mainly due to the contribution of traders, and the downstream performance is flat. This week's aluminum trend first suppressed and then rose, with Shanghai trading price between 14040 and 14170 yuan / ton, spot discount rising in the range of 10 to 30 yuan / ton, Wuxi trading price between 14040 and 14170 yuan / ton, and Hangzhou trading price between 14060 and 14180 yuan / ton. This week, the spot in the market changed from discount to rising water after the festival, although it is still a week before the delivery period, but the basis performance is strong, and some traders tend to ship risk aversion under the condition of sensitive macro atmosphere. Some traders tend to "sell out during the buying period" when the aluminum futures are hung upside down and the rising water is higher. At the same time, the receiving volume of Chinalco this week is much higher than that before the festival. As a result, the overall shipment of the cargo holders is active, and the trading enthusiasm among traders is higher. However, downstream this week after the festival replenishment enthusiasm is not high, near the weekend there is no obvious stock, the overall procurement to on demand.

Lead: this week, trade frictions between China and the United States escalated, market risk appetite plummeted, over-the-counter funds stayed on the sidelines, and on-site funds accelerated flight, so this week's exploration of lead was not accompanied by the release of trading volume. In only four trading days this week, as trade frictions between China and the United States escalated, market panic spread, and Shanghai lead took the lead in going down, so Lun lead made up and fell at the beginning of the week, and a day after a brief consolidation, as it approached the node where tariffs were levied on Friday, Panic broke out in the market, with Lun lead as low as $1830.5 a tonne, a recent three-year low, after some short sellers made a profit, and Lun lead recovered some of its decline, reporting it at $1846 a tonne as of 13-40 as of Friday. The weekly decline was 2.25%. Next week's macro data focus: the initial value of year-on-year GDP in the first quarter of the euro zone, the month-on-month ratio of retail sales in the United States in April, the construction permit in April (10,000 households), the start of new housing in the United States in April (10,000 households), and the initial consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in May. There are less foreign economic data next week, which is generally expected to be better than the previous value. In addition, due to the complex and volatile macro environment, bulls' confidence has been hit recently. After the biggest negative landing on Friday, there is the possibility of an overfall and rebound in non-ferrous metals entering next week. During the period of lead technology, the monthly level of three consecutive negative, a cumulative decline of about 14%, and has not yet seen signs of stabilizing, next week if the collective rebound, high short pressure is still large, it is expected that the rebound of lead next week is limited. The operating range is expected to range from $1820 to $1885 per ton.

This week, the Shanghai lead 1906 contract, spurred by the escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States, dived downward, and the market sentiment changed from optimistic bullish last week to pessimistic bearish this week, with 16000 below to support it. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead jumped and opened lower due to the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States over the weekend, and some of the short sellers fled at one point. Shanghai lead once recovered its decline and reached 16255 yuan per ton, but the good times were not long, the short positions were allocated at a high level, and Shanghai lead gave up its increase. After two days of consolidation, short sellers broke through the Shanghai lead operating platform and dipped to 16100 yuan per ton, refreshing the new low in Shanghai in the past two years, but the bottom fund entered the market, and the lead exploration in Shanghai rebounded to 16155 yuan per ton, a weekly drop of 3.18 per cent.? Reduce your position by 3000 to 53960. Next week's domestic economic data: China's industrial value added above the scale of January to April compared with the same period last year, China's industrial value added above the scale of April compared with the same period last year, and urban fixed asset investment in China from January to April compared with the same period last year. The above data superimposed the April social data released this week, the domestic economic data in April showed signs of weakness compared with the same period last year, but the month-on-month slow repair process, the domestic economy is still in the "L" type, it is too early to talk about the "V" type reversal. In the coming week, under the continuous overfall of domestic non-ferrous metals, there is the possibility of a rebound. During this period, the current decline of lead in Shanghai is not large, and the strength of the rebound is expected to be limited. However, as lead enters the peak season of consumption from June to July, consumption still has expectations. In addition, as the lead price falls below the cost line, it is expected that there may be a reduction in production in the future, so the fundamentals do not support the further exploration of lead prices, and it is expected that lead prices in Shanghai will pick up again next week and recover some of the declines, with an estimated range of 16000 to 16350 yuan per ton.

This week, the mainstream trading range of spot lead is 16225 yuan / ton. Lead prices jumped down this week, storage enterprises afraid of falling cautious mining, the overall procurement mood is depressed, but in the middle of the week due to lead prices once stabilized, some storage enterprises after the festival to replenish the warehouse. The inventory of the original lead refinery was slightly replenished after the festival, and the refinery shipped actively. As of Friday, the main quotation of the refinery bulk order was 50 yuan / ton to flat water for the average price of SMM1# lead. A few quotations discount the average price of SMM1# lead to 100 yuan per ton. In terms of trade, Shanghai holders have a relatively small supply of goods, so despite the weak lead price and weak consumption, the holder still gradually raised the water price, as of Friday, the domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation for 1906 contract water 60 to 120 yuan / ton. In terms of recycled lead, the lead price dived downward, broke down the production cost line of the regenerated lead refinery, and the refinery basically lost money in production, but some enterprises still discounted the shipment in order to return funds, as of Friday. Some of the recycled refined lead was quoted to the SMM1# lead average price of 150 to 100 yuan / ton factory, in the middle of the refinery bulk single pair of SMM1# lead price discount 200 yuan / ton factory.

Zinc: macro bearish pressure weak fundamentals zinc prices fell below all averages. Under the macro haze, dragged down by its own weak fundamentals, Lunzingling Road turned down, 4 Lianyin away from all EMA, measured $2600 / ton platform support. At the beginning of the week, because the international May Day International Labour Day LME was closed for one day, after the resumption of the market, there was already downward pressure on Back, and the high level of Back did not fall back, and the zinc inventory of LME increased again to strengthen the negative impact. In the near weekend, the Chinese side took a tough position to curb the devaluation of the RMB, and the market risk aversion mood cooled slightly, and the lower level of US $2603 / ton was found in the lower track of the Bolin Road, near the weekend, when the Chinese side took a strong position to curb the devaluation of the RMB. Lun Zinc slightly repaired the operation center of gravity moved up to 2650 US dollars / ton to do a little finishing, but Lun Zinc fundamental weak position has not changed. As of Friday, trading volume fell by 145 to 39383, while positions increased by 4760 to 270000.

This week, China credit data released, compared with March year-on-year decline and less than expected, but CPI, PPI data improved, domestic demand boost is limited; At the same time, the resumption of the Sino-US trade war means that the second carriage that drives the economy also has hidden worries, and the overall domestic economy is still under pressure. This week, Shanghai zinc main 1907 contract operation center of gravity further moved down, struggling to stand firm in the early stage of the platform around 21700 yuan / ton. After the resumption of the domestic market at the beginning of the week, the performance was relatively stable, running steadily around 21330 yuan / ton, and both sides showed restraint and caution, followed by the transformation of the macro situation, which led to a further warming of the risk aversion mood. As the basic metals fell, they were dragged down by weak fundamentals. Shanghai zinc led the decline, directly piercing the 21000 yuan / ton barrier to the bottom of 20720 yuan / ton. Near Friday, the Chinese side made a strong statement, coupled with the tariff escalation and landing. Some short left Shanghai zinc slightly repaired once back to the 21000 yuan / ton mark, but the end of the day again down to spit out most of the gains. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index rose 1.783 million hands to 3.144 million hands, and positions rose 36004 hands to 692000 hands.

This week, the Shanghai market 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1905 contract from 60 to 70 yuan / ton to 70 to 80 yuan / ton, 0 # Shuangyan held steady at 250 / 300 yuan / ton, the market circulation improved slightly. Imported SMC, AZ, KZ, Spain to 0 # domestic zinc discount 30 yuan / ton-flat water, the price difference is small, mainly digested by the downstream. This week accompanied by a gradual decline in zinc, spot market trading gradually heating up, downstream buying and trading demand are single volume. After the festival, the market quotation is more disorderly, the transaction is divided in the range of 50 to 100 yuan / ton, and the downstream just needs to purchase after the festival, while the trading volume of traders has increased slightly, but most of them are bearish for the time being. Subsequently, the zinc futures gradually fell, and at the same time, the instability of the macro situation made the downstream fear of falling and looking forward to falling mood intertwined, buying relatively cautiously, but the transaction volume gradually increased, and traders also actively received goods through cost calculation and long-term single rhythm. The atmosphere of market transaction has gradually improved. However, as delivery is approaching, the spot water increase has little change under the inhibition of the regression trend, and remains stable at about 70 to 80 yuan / ton, and the overall transaction is better than that before the festival.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc versus Shanghai zinc 1906 contract rose 60 yuan to 70 yuan / ton, about 60 yuan / ton less than last week, and the Guangdong market maintained a discount of about 100 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market last week. The zinc in the period of the week went down, the refineries slightly cherished the sale, and the arrival to the warehouse within the week was lower than that of last week. However, the overall market deflation was still abundant, and most of the goods were shipped. Therefore, the rising water did not rise as a result of the downward market. In terms of consumption, there is still a certain demand for long orders in the market. Contribution to a certain amount of transaction, at the same time, the disk down, rising water low, jointly stimulated part of the downstream replenishment of the mood, the contribution of part of the transaction, but continuous decline, downstream take goods more cautious, follow-up transactions failed to continue to promote a large number of transactions. Overall, the overall transaction volume of the Guangdong market increased this week compared with last week, but the overall transaction volume is still relatively limited.

This week, the Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1906 contract rose 100 yuan to 170 yuan / ton, an increase of 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. Tianjin market changed from 30 yuan / ton last week to 45 yuan / ton discount. Within the week, the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is relatively abundant, the disk surface is down within the week, it is difficult for the holder to ship the goods at a high price, the shipping pressure increases, and takes the initiative to lower the supply of goods for the low-price brand, contributing to most of the transactions. The market demand for high-priced brands is weak, and the transaction volume is relatively limited. In terms of consumption, affected by the reduction in processing fees caused by the rise of the black plate and the lack of orders, most galvanizing plants in North China have their costs hung upside down, and some large galvanizing plants have maintained low production at a loss. In addition, some small galvanizing plants have stopped, resulting in downstream enterprises buying on demand only when they are on the low side, and the overall transaction has not obviously warmed up. The consumption of the Tianjin market has shown a further weakening trend than that of the Shanghai stock market. On the whole, the overall transaction this week is relatively limited. It was only slightly better than the week before the festival.

Tin: on the outside, due to a day off from bank leave in the UK on Monday, Lunxi was affected by the volatility of the US dollar index from Tuesday to Friday, and Lunxi generally remained low and consolidated. As of Thursday, Lunxi closed at $19235 a tonne, down $140a tonne from the same period last week. The trading volume was 838, a decrease of 378. The position was 16929, an increase of 59. This week, affected by the high consolidation of the dollar index and Indonesia's report that refined tin exports rose 43 per cent in April from a year earlier, the overall trend of Lunxi has been under pressure and concussion.

The focus of the Shanghai Tin 1909 contract shifted significantly this week, closing at 146290 yuan per ton on Friday, down 2300 yuan, or 1.55 percent, from the same period in the previous period. The trading volume was 64722, an increase of 40982. The position was 36270 hands, an increase of 3584 hands. Shanghai tin was affected by the escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States this week, and market short sentiment warmed up, leading to downward pressure on Shanghai tin prices, which closed at the Changyin line on Thursday. In addition, the overall demand of the spot market is weak, and the support for the trend of tin price is weak.

The focus of the main 1909 contract in Shanghai has shifted downward this week. The mainstream trading price in the spot market fell from 145700 to 146500 yuan per ton on Monday to 144500 to 145500 yuan per ton on Friday. From Monday to Thursday, the trading atmosphere was weak due to the macro factors of the Sino-US trade war and the weaker downstream orders. The range of sticker water is stable at 800 to 1500 yuan / ton. As the center of gravity of the disk remained low on Friday, the supply of goods in the hands of arbitrageurs had a price advantage, the price of Shanghai and tin fell obviously, and a small amount of warming was made by downstream enterprises, and the discount range of Yunxi was narrowed to 500 to 1500 yuan / ton today. Overall, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market this week is general, and downstream enterprises still maintain a cautious purchasing mentality. Recently, we are concerned about the impact of the trade war between China and the United States on the trend of tin prices.

Nickel: the market is closed on Monday, and from Tuesday to Thursday, the outside market came out of the shade for three times, with its center of gravity falling from $12000 to $11800 a ton. The dollar weakened on Friday, with the initial outcome of the Sino-US trade talks, with the nickel rebounding to $12000 a tonne, but the entire physical column was still below the 5-day moving average. The outer plate closed at the middle shade line this week, the lower shadow line guidance, KDJ opening spread down slowly, the position increased by 3575 to 236000 tons.

After the Shanghai nickel festival, 95500 yuan / ton opened low on Monday, followed by a shock around 96000 yuan / ton. Lack of power to explore, on Thursday, short positions vigorously increased positions, Shanghai nickel under the 95000 yuan / ton barrier, vigorously wash dishes, closed at the Zhongyin line. Also affected by macro on Friday, Shanghai nickel stopped falling and rebounded to around 96500 yuan per ton. Recently, the rise and fall of nickel is mainly dominated by macro factors, but returning to the supply and demand side of nickel, the supply of nickel pig iron is still gradually released. In May, some steel mills transferred to the third system to do the second series, the output of the third series decreased, and the demand decreased. The trend of nickel price is weak, which is a process of continuous negative decline, but the overfall caused by macro factors may be necessary to repair in a short period of time. Trading volume rose 962000 hands to 1.232 million hands and positions increased 45000 hands to 228000 hands in the week's closing session, with the opening of the KDJ slowing down as trading volume rose 962000 hands to 1.232 million hands and positions increased 45000 hands to 228000 hands.

Spot market, this week Russian nickel to Wuxi 1905 contract water 335yuan / ton, compared with last week slightly narrowed about 400yuan / ton, Jinchuan 1905 contract week rose water 3500 yuan / ton, compared with last week expanded 400yuan / ton. The rise of Russian nickel narrowed, mainly due to the opening of the import window, the domestic spot market supply gradually relaxed, and at the same time demand has not significantly improved. Jinchuan nickel rising water continued to rise, mainly because Jinchuan company cherished the price. Next week, with the increase in domestic stocks, it is expected that next week Russian nickel will increase Wuxi 1905 liters of water by 100 yuan per ton, and Jinchuan against Wuxi 1905 contract will increase water supply by 3000 to 3400 yuan per ton. The first day after the festival on Monday, although the price opened low, but the spot market response was flat, more downstream in the wait and see. After the downward adjustment of the increase in water supply, the transaction was relatively improved, but the overall transaction was light. Subsequently, nickel prices continue to fall, downstream pessimism continues to dominate, the process of a small number of on-demand procurement, the first half of the basic 96400 yuan position is relatively dense. Nickel prices continued to fall in the second half of the week, some of the lower 95300 position of low prices, nickel prices rose on Friday, some downstream believe that there may be a rebound in demand for a short period of time, so there are a small number of goods in the morning. The overall transaction this week is general, downstream is still cautious to take goods. This week Jinchuan nickel transaction has been light, mainly because Jinchuan company cherish the sale of water, traders take care of goods, while downstream demand remains stable, basic on-demand procurement.

 

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