Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (2019.3.11 to 2019.3.15)

SMM, March 15 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

Aluminum: this week Lun aluminum concussion upward. On Monday, the 1840 yuan / ton line of support hit a low of $1845 per ton in the middle of the week, as there was still some support below, and then began to turn around and pick up. As the dollar index this week recorded three consecutive negative, low recorded a 96.371-week low, superimposed LME aluminum stocks experienced a few days of sharp decline, London aluminum, homeopathic upward, back above the daily average. On Wednesday night, it emerged that the roof structure of the Neuss electrolytic aluminum plant in Heidelu Germany had been damaged and that nearly 10, 000 to 20, 000 tons of aluminum production would be affected. The US index fell on the same day, and Lun Aluminum rose sharply on Wednesday night, returning to near the 1900 yuan / ton pass. Affected by the news of the tax cut near the weekend, domestic aluminum prices rose sharply that month, led by foreign aluminum, hitting a high of $1914 per tonnage in the middle of the week. As of 17:00, the small positive line was recorded on the K line of Lun Al, and the center of gravity was basically the same as that of last week. The third line of daily KDJ seems to have upward momentum, and the red line of MACD is elongated, because the driving force of Lun Al itself is not obvious for the time being. The company is expected to continue to struggle around $1900 a tonne next week and will continue to focus next week on macro data such as the dollar index, the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the US in January and sales of existing homes after the February quarter.

This week Shanghai aluminum main company 1905 contract is slightly stronger than other metals, this week concussion upward. At the beginning of the week, it gradually rose below all EMA, and recorded Sanlianyang from the low point around 13460, piercing all EMA. Although the early trend is strong, but from a technical point of view only recovered the Shanghai aluminum last week due to the pressure of the dollar out of the decline. On Friday, Premier Li Keqiang released the news of his speech on the tax reduction and fee reduction on April 1. Affected by it, the market rose nearly 100 yuan in two minutes, reached a high of 13725 yuan per ton in the middle of the week, brushed the latest two-week high, and reduced short positions by nearly 17, 000 hands on the same day. It was recorded that the upper and lower shadow lines were long and positive lines. This week Shanghai Aluminum 1905 contract week K line closed at the small positive line, the center of gravity is basically the same as last week, still below the 20-day moving average. Affected by the news of the tax reduction, the upside-down structure of aluminum in Shanghai has been further enlarged this week. The difference between the 1903 contract and the 1904 contract is nearly 200yuan / ton, and Friday is the last delivery date of the 1903 contract. It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to fluctuate in a wide range above 13500 yuan / ton next week. Wait for further clear signals from the downstream consumption and cost side.

Spot trading activity this week was about the same as last week, but the upside-down of aluminium futures caused by tax cuts affected market traders' willingness to trade and arbitrage. This week, the transaction price was between 13600 yuan and 13820 yuan per ton in Shanghai, 50 yuan to 10 yuan per ton for the current month, 13600 yuan to 13820 yuan per ton in Wuxi and 13600 yuan to 13820 yuan per ton in Hangzhou. As the news of tax reduction and fee reduction is about to land this week, traders are active in receiving goods, at the same time, because of the existence of aluminum upside-down structure, the trend of superimposed aluminum price is stronger, and the willingness of high-level shipment is also obvious. On the whole, middlemen and traders were more active in the early stage. Near Friday, due to the news of the tax cut, there were obviously more people receiving goods early in the morning than shippers, but then the aluminum price rose and fell sharply, the aluminum price gap widened rapidly, the transaction activity dropped rapidly, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The quotation was chaotic. It is difficult to close a deal without a market, and a small amount of transaction in the afternoon is nearly 200 yuan / ton of water for next month's contract. This week, the downstream basically maintain the pace of on-demand procurement, although there are many inquiries but fear of high sentiment is obvious, want to wait for the change of month after the aluminum price to fall, procurement performance hesitation. The overall transaction this week is more mediocre.

Lead: this week, lead stabilized under the boost of the high diving of the US index, with US $2100 becoming the dividing line between the two sides this week. Technically, in addition to the 10-day moving average, the other EMA is still showing an upward trend, giving lead prices some support. At the beginning of the week, Lun lead fluctuated broadly near the 40-day moving average, during which it broke through the 40-day moving average support and reached a weekly low of US $2060 per tonne. In the next few days, the US Index went negative continuously, basically giving back all its gains last week. Non-ferrous metals were boosted and strengthened. The lead line broke through the 5-and 10-day moving average and climbed to $2131 a tonne. However, the good times did not last long, and the US Index stabilized. Lun lead gave up its gains on Wednesday, as of 14: 00 on Friday. Lun lead was at $2095 a tonne, up 0.19 per cent a week. No domestic economic data will be released next week. The United States is concerned about the month-on-month final value of durable goods orders in the United States in January, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the annualization of the total number of existing home sales in the United States in February (10,000 households), through the signals given by the market in the past one to two months. It is expected that the probability of raising interest rates in the Fed's interest rate resolution is extremely low. We will focus on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's summary and outlook for the US economy at the meeting will be reduced from the expected rate hike to no rate hike this year. Next week, we will focus on the discount of LME lead (0 to 3) liters, and if the congtango structure continues to expand, there may be a possibility of a downward break of lead, which is expected to range from US $2070 to US $2130 / tonne.

This week, Shanghai lead 1904 contract broke down, officially entered the "technical bear market", the short-term low depends on whether there is effective support at level 7. At the beginning of the week, the trading volume of lead in Shanghai was light, and the trading volume shrank to a low level in nearly two weeks. During this period, Shanghai lead repeatedly tried to push upward, but due to the weakness of the fundamentals, they all showed a pattern of pushing up and falling back. In the next two days, the market expects value-added tax to officially fall to the ground on April 1. The operation of buying 3 and throwing 4 quietly appeared on the disk, and the long-month contract was miserably short. The Shanghai lead main company contract was closed for two consecutive days, breaking all EMA down, during which it reached a weekly low of 17190 yuan / ton, and was finally reported at 17200 yuan / ton. Weekly decline of 1.57%, position reduced by 4180 hands to 32972 hands, 0304 contract price difference of 4180 yuan / ton (back), 0405 contract price difference of 30 yuan / ton (congtango). In the coming week, with the end of the two sessions, the production restrictions in Henan and Hebei refineries will come to an end, but at the same time, due to the continued weakening of lead prices, they will once again approach the cost line of reclaimed lead smelting, and there is the possibility of a shutdown of small and medium-sized refineries in the future. Therefore, next week, we will focus on the change of the primary price difference of regeneration. Next week, Shanghai lead is expected to run in the range of 17000 to 17400 yuan per ton.

This week spot lead mainstream trading range of 17400 to 17550 yuan / ton. Lead prices broke down this week, enterprises fear of contagion, the next two days to wait and see, bulk single market trading is very light. In the primary lead market, except that some refineries in Henan maintain a state of limited production, other areas are basically normal production, and the supply of primary lead is stable. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation for SMM1# lead in refineries is near the average price of lead. In the trader market, due to light consumption, traders have lower enthusiasm for taking goods, and holders have less inventory. As of Friday, the contract price spread of 0304 widened, and some domestic ordinary lead increased to 100 to 150 yuan / ton for 1904 contracts. Other domestic common lead mainstream quotations for SMM1# lead discount 25 yuan / ton to flat water. Recycled lead market, recycled lead refinery normal production, but the next two days lead price down, suppress some of the refinery production profits, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled lead from SMM1# lead discount 200 to 100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 150 to 100 yuan / ton.

Zinc: there was less international news this week, with a lower concussion of the US index and a weaker crackdown on basic metals. This week, led by low inventories, zinc fell back after breaking through a new high in the year, falling below $2800 a tonne support. At the beginning of the week, LME zinc stocks kept approaching historical lows, coupled with the rapid rise in the Back structure in the short term, the fundamentals of Back were further strengthened, and the timely US core inflation index unexpectedly failed to support the Fed's patient position on raising interest rates. The US dollar fell below the 97 mark, and driven by macro sentiment, Len Zinc strongly broke through US $2800 / ton support and refreshed the year's high of US $2848.5 / ton, leaving the market one after another. After testing the support strength of the 5-day EMA, the domestic VAT was reduced to safety, and the positive consumption pushed Len Zinc to quickly pull up and refresh the year's high of US $2882 per tonne. However, the domestic VAT reduction brought about a cost reduction. Under the internal and external linkage, the pressure falls directly below the 5-day moving average and 2800 US dollars / ton integer support, and the operating center of gravity moves down to about 2890 US dollars / ton. As of Friday, trading volume increased by 8655 to 59267 and positions increased by 2927 to 270000.

This week, the VAT reduction bag is safe, and it is determined that the basic metal monthly difference structure will be adjusted rapidly from April 1, and the cost will be moved down as a result of the tax rate reduction, and the downward pressure on the basic metal will be greater. This week, Shanghai zinc was guided by the outside market, a strong break through the 22000 yuan / ton integer barrier. At the beginning of the week, the external disk strongly pulled up, the Shanghai zinc operation was strong under the guidance of the external disk, and the domestic inventory depolarization inflection point appeared, the optimistic expectation of consumption was slightly increased, and the main force of Shanghai zinc was strong and volatile. Subsequently, the center of gravity of the operation was directly pulled up to 21850 yuan / ton, and the long and empty operation was more cautious. On Friday, the value-added tax was lowered, and the cost moved down after the increase in consumer expectations. The main thrust and fall operation center of zinc in Shanghai has moved down to about 21600 yuan / ton, and the time point of tax reduction has been determined after April, the price difference of 03 / 04 has rapidly expanded from about 21600 yuan / ton to about 500yuan / ton, and the price feedback is obvious. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index rose 786000 hands to 4.018 million hands, and positions rose 20038 hands to 552000 hands.

This week, the contract of 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1904 in Shanghai market has changed from 100 RMB / t to 220 RMB / t, 0 # Shuangyan has stabilized at about 30 RMB / t in March, and the contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1904 in Shanghai market this week has changed from 100 RMB / t to 220 RMB / t. The supply of imported SMC is stable, 40 yuan / ton of domestic zinc discount is about flat water, and there is little circulation of other imported zinc.

At the beginning of the week, zinc remained relatively low, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was still high, market transactions were more active, and actual consumption contributed more to spot transactions. Subsequently, zinc futures entered the uplink channel and stood steady at 22000 yuan per ton. Downstream chose to wait and see carefully. Traders are also afraid of high caution, the market to ship the main, transaction atmosphere gradually light, spot on the month to maintain the small discount near; In the second half of the week, the market expected a concentrated reduction in VAT in April, increased arbitrage at tax points in the trade market, and increased enthusiasm for receiving goods in the market, but it was mainly concentrated among traders, and the downstream fear of high wait-and-see participation was limited. With the expansion of the monthly difference, the spot water rise is gradually adjusted to about 200 yuan / ton of water rise in April, and then the value-added tax falls to the ground, the monthly difference reaction is more direct and intense, and the market quotation is rapidly adjusted to about 400 yuan / ton of water rise. The enthusiasm for receiving goods in the market has cooled slightly, and the sentiment of cherishing sales has slightly warmed up. On the whole, the activity of the market this week is less than that of last week, and the transaction volume is slightly higher than that of last week, mainly contributed by traders.

This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1904 contract water rise 190 400 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market from 70 yuan / ton discount to Pingshui near. Refinery every high active shipment, low water at the beginning of the week to stimulate some traders to receive goods delivery arbitrage, low price sources clear out, the market appears to cherish sales sentiment, rising water. Then the value-added tax reduction from the news to the implementation, zinc pull up the monthly difference continues to expand, the market quotation adjusted with the month, the market for the rising water is expected to continue to rise, there is still demand for goods. Downstream, under the market pull up, downstream orders are still weak, wait-and-see sentiment is heavy, purchasing into the market is still dominated by rigid demand. Overall, the market is active this week, mainly with the contribution of traders, the overall transaction has improved compared with last week.

This week, Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1904 contract rising water 50 yuan / ton to rising water 200 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai market discount 200 yuan / ton. Refinery every high active shipment, at the beginning of the week, the production limit is still continuing, the overall downstream start-up has not been significantly improved, superimposed high zinc prices, mostly wait-and-see, few procurement, shipping pressure is still greater, rising water pressure downward. Subsequently, the VAT news was implemented, and the monthly difference in the same month continued to widen, and the holding and selling sentiment gradually thickened. The downstream was afraid of the possibility of zinc rising after the rising water, and entered the market to replenish the warehouse, and the transaction became obvious, but on Friday afternoon, The high level of zinc fell back, the market then turned to wait and see, the transaction became light. Overall, Tianjin market transactions improved slightly this week, but still relatively limited. On the whole, the downstream procurement within the week is still dominated by rigid demand, the transaction has not significantly improved.

Tin: on the Lunxi side this week, after falling to about $21000 per ton on Monday in the form of a long shade line, the center of gravity of Lunxi rose slightly until the close on Thursday. This is mainly due to continued low inventories and a weaker dollar, which has led to a reduction in pressure on the top of Lunxi. Lunxi closed Thursday at $21230 a tonne, down $255a tonne from the same period last week. The trading volume was 1062 hands and the position volume was 19024 hands, an increase of 100 hands over the same period last week. At present, there is still no latest news from Indonesia, Lunxi stocks remain low, it is expected that next week Lunxi may continue to maintain high volatility.

This week Shanghai tin main 1905 contract to maintain the overall consolidation trend, the center of gravity rose slightly. Shanghai tin closed at 147360 yuan per ton on Friday, up 220 yuan, or 0.15 per cent, from Friday. Trading volume was 77942 hands and position volume was 31848 hands, an increase of 1480 hands over Friday. This week, mainly due to the holding and sale of sets of goods, weak buying in the lower reaches and the technical adjustment after the rapid decline in the early stage, the tin maintenance in Shanghai was stable at around 147000 yuan / ton. Next week or will announce the specific details of the tax reduction, it is expected that the future short-term Shanghai tin may continue to fall, the upper resistance level of 148000 yuan / ton.

Spot prices in Shanghai and tin remained stable this week, with mainstream trading of 147500 to 149500 yuan per ton as of Friday, an average price unchanged from Friday. Liter discount, this week Shengtianshui expanded, Friday set cloud tin liter water 2000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud character liter water 1200 to 1700 yuan / ton, small brand liter water 900 yuan / ton. Due to the influence of tax reduction factors, the mood of set merchants to cherish and sell is more common, the supply of tin ingots is relatively tight, and the spot price of tin ingots is generally higher, so although the tin plate in Shanghai has fallen, the spot price is still high and the discount is expanded. As a result of the tax reduction may lead to the impact of the future decline in tin prices, downstream enterprises do not receive goods in non-rigid demand, wait-and-see mood is strong. In response to Chinese and foreign reporters on Friday, Li Keqiang said: "value-added tax will be reduced on April 1," which has further intensified the cherishing and selling sentiment of the holders.

Nickel: the trend of the external market is stronger than that of the internal market this week, rebounding from the low level of US $12900 / ton in the first half of the week, and standing on the 20-day moving average many times below. However, the upward momentum is insufficient, the positive mood of Vale abroad is gradually disappearing, the Sino-US trade negotiations have a long way to go, and the pressure on the top of the nickel is 10 antennas. In the second half of the week, it failed to probe the 10 antennas again, and the pressure fell back, and as of about 2:30 on Friday afternoon, the center of gravity of nickel had been consolidated around the $12900 / ton barrier to a low level in nearly a month. This week, Len Ni closed in the middle negative line, short position increased mainly, the position increased by 4781 hands to 231000 hands, KDJ adhesion has a downward trend to the opening.

Shanghai nickel this week is weak, the first half of Tuesday to explore the 20-day moving average, mainly to short profit-taking, closing above the moving average. In the second half of the week, the tax reduction policy was announced, and the market focused on the time and extent of the tax reduction, and the contract inverted price spread widened to 2000 yuan per ton at one time. Tax cuts have led to lower costs, and most markets have been shorting for months. Short positions increased in the second half of the week, and Shanghai nickel concussion fell, falling below the 100000 mark at one point. On Friday morning and in the morning, it was announced that VAT would be cut by 3 points to 13 percent on April 1, and the market was expected to cash in, as of 2: 30 p.m. The disk runs weakly near gate 100000. This week is mainly affected by the domestic tax reduction policy, near strong and far weak, the cost moves down, the supply and demand side of nickel itself does not change greatly, pure nickel inventory remains low, but the range of going to the warehouse is small. Nickel pig iron is expected to increase production, but the current price is still strong, nickel pig iron is still higher than pure nickel. Shanghai nickel closed in the negative line this week, mainly long position reduction, position reduction of 15000 hands to 256000 hands, KDJ adhesion.

Spot transactions, this week spot transactions in general, only a small number of transactions. The main reason is that most of the market is focused on the timing of the VAT drop this week, after rumors that the VAT cut began on April 1 and is expected to materialize on Friday. Traders are cautious in shipping this week, and basically do not quote shipments after Friday's policy landing, mainly because shipments will have three profit points after April. However, downstream take goods are not active, mainly due to concern about the late nickel price decline more than 3 points profit margin, so the overall trading this week is light.