With the complexity of the global economy in 2018, there was a huge earthquake in the global trade market under Trump's protectionism. Although the US dollar outperformed others, US stocks could not escape the resonance effect of the collective decline in the global stock market, and the annual performance of metal futures was almost wiped out. Only gold becomes a hero in troubled times, and the economic data at the end of the year undoubtedly add a lingering concern to the market. 2019 is destined to be a year of crisis and change!
Let's see how Jiang Xingchun, assistant general manager of Soochow Futures and director of the Institute, interprets it!
In his New year's message of 2019, President SMM: Xi said: "looking at the world, we are facing a great change that has not happened in a century. No matter how the international situation changes, China's confidence and determination to safeguard national sovereignty and security will not change, and China's sincerity and goodwill in safeguarding world peace and promoting common development will not change. We will actively promote the joint building of "Belt and Road Initiative", continue to promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind, and make unremitting efforts to build a more prosperous and better world. What do you think President Xi is referring to when he says "there has not been a great change in a hundred years"?
Jiang Xingchun: as General Secretary Xi said, "the situation has not changed in a century." I can understand that great changes have taken place in the new and old forces in global governance and in promoting the development and progress of human society. Traditional developed countries give way to more emerging economies as well as developing countries, Western civilization gives way to Eastern civilization, and China proposes to build a community with a shared future for mankind, which conforms to the common interests of the people of the world and conforms to the expectations of the world for a new pattern. It is also conducive to the accumulation of good external conditions for Chinese Dream, who has realized the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
SMM:, what do you think are the risks to the global macro-economy in 2019? What challenges does China face?
Jiang Xingchun: the global macro-economy faces three risks: (1) deflation caused by the weakening of the global economic recovery; (2) the Fed's inertia to raise interest rates, a strong dollar slumped the economy and asset prices; (3) the economic downturn has triggered a resurgence of global trade protectionism.
The challenges facing China also come from three aspects: (1) whether the economic and trade frictions between China and the United States are resolved smoothly, (2) whether the risk of asset price decline caused by the economic downturn is effectively resolved, and (2) whether the risk of asset price decline caused by the economic downturn is effectively resolved. (3) whether monetary and fiscal policies can promote the warming of the real economy. At the same time, the frequent occurrence of peripheral security problems and the frequent overseas risks of central enterprises may also cause local shocks.
SMM: crises are always accompanied by opportunities. What opportunities do you think there will be in China in the future in the face of general pessimism in the market?
Jiang Xingchun: it is precisely the whole world and China are in a complex era of great changes, China's external environment is bound to change, the transformation of internal reform into the deep water area, will inevitably encounter a variety of risks and challenges. But crises and opportunities have always been intertwined and rapidly transformed. Therefore, China's opportunities are to further open up to the outside world, strengthen confidence in reform and transformation at home, reduce taxes and fees, and create a good environment for the development of the real economy.
What do you think of the global economic trend in 2019 when Trump stirred up global trade and financial markets in SMM:2018?
Jiang Xingchun: 2019 the global economy continues to be characterized by low growth, low inflation and big fluctuations. Due to the general weakness of the global economy and the decline in consumer demand and international trade, commodities face a double dip. Risky assets such as equity and equity are facing a decline.
Recently, the SMM: has also made a lot of voices at the national level and introduced a series of measures. For example, adjusting the assessment criteria for the directional reduction of inclusive finance, 1.39 trillion local bonds issued in advance to the first quarter, tax cuts and fees, and it is reported that departments such as the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, and other departments are planning to introduce a package of new policies to promote consumption with greater intensity. Wait, wait. What do you think of the trend of China's economy in 2019?
Jiang Xingchun: yes, the short cycle of China's economy is still dominated by shocks, and economic restructuring has also slowed down economic growth, but the improvement of economic quality and efficiency is more critical, providing momentum for a recovery in the future. At present, the prescription issued by the government is to cure both the symptoms and the root causes, which is in line with the objective facts of China's economy. It is painful in the short term, it is clear for a long time, it is open to promote development, consumption is used to drive economic development, and people's livelihood is taken into account, and financial precision is used to support entities. The process may be long, and it will be in the throes and freshmen of 2019.
What do you think is the main reason for the sharp rebound in the US dollar in SMM:2018? What do you think of the dollar trend in 2019?
Jiang Xingchun: the strength of US $2018 has been jointly decided by the full momentum of US economic growth and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates many times. The US economy is likely to change in 2019, the US economy is slowing, and the Fed faces many risks of raising interest rates once a year, so the dollar is expected to have a strong regional shock in 2019, making it difficult to break through the 100 mark.
In the year of SMM:2018, the global stock market was green, and the US stocks, which had always been ahead of the pack, also broke down in October. What do you think of the future of the stock market in 2019?
Jiang Xingchun: there is a technical bear market in US stocks. If the US economy weakens and Sino-US trade ripples again, there is still a good chance that the US stock market will still have 10-15% room to fall. Similarly, due to the decline in profits of listed companies and the holding of over-the-counter funds, the weak decline in A-shares is still the main operating trend. Of course, under the circumstances of favorable policies and increased allocation of overseas funds, A larger rebound can also be expected, and we believe that the A-share operating area in 2019 is in [2100-2900].
What is your favorite product in SMM:2019 year? Why?
Jiang Xingchun: in 2019, we are relatively optimistic about the oil in agricultural products and the precious metals gold and silver. The former is after many years of decline, and the oil inventory is relatively low. In addition, the oil factory has to maintain profits and properly maintain the price of oil when the soybean meal is in the doldrums. The seasonal reduction in palm oil production in Southeast Asia has become an opportunity for a sharp rebound in oil prices. Long-term bullish on precious metals, mainly economic downturn, risk events occur frequently, precious metals undoubtedly become an important allocation direction of funds because of risk aversion.
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