SMM News: one of the world's biggest bubbles, "American stocks" recently had the potential to collapse: the Na Index and the S & P index both fell into a bear market in a 10-negative manner, and the Dow also retreated by more than 19 per cent, a fraction of the difference between a technical bear market and a technical bear market. The trend line is short, the Brin midline is accelerating down, the MACD double dead fork is down, important indicators have changed their faces rapidly in the past two months, the gains so far this year have long since been wiped out, the technical bear market has never been the end, it may just be the beginning. Today's US crude oil is the best example.
Since the beginning of October, American stocks and American oil have been competing to fall, and American oil soon entered a technical bear market, and then it got out of hand, plummeted, and fell endlessly. At present, American oil has fallen more than 44%, which can be called an avalanche. And there is no sign of bottoming out at the moment.
After entering October, US stocks fluctuated significantly, and the consequences of four interest rate hikes this year began to be gradually exposed. The economic "Trump effect" brought about by Trump's tax cuts is coming to an end, and investors are more worried about the instability after the bubble in US stocks. The major investment banks began to look down on the world economy and the US economy next year, and then superimposed the uncertainty about Sino-US trade frictions and Trump policies, and the market frequently began to short the stock market and buy US bonds to avoid risk, especially long-term US bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note plummeted from 3.2% in November to 2.7% now. On December 3, the yields on three-year and five-year US Treasuries were even upside down. The upside-down of US Treasury yields is a sign of an extreme crisis in the market. The last time there was an inverted hang was during the 2007 financial crisis. The last time there was an Internet bubble in 2000, was it a harbinger of a huge crisis?
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the major stock indexes of the world's top four economies have all fallen into a bear market, and as China's economy enters a new normal, the world economy has also entered a period of low growth. The ensuing debt problem haunts almost all countries. In such a terrible economic environment, the US Federal Reserve forcibly raised interest rates again in December, and many economies had no choice but to follow the Fed in raising interest rates, which will undoubtedly deal a blow to their own weak economy, and at the same time, the US economy has also been hit hard. Everyone knows that there is no bull market for raising interest rates, not to mention that this is the ninth time that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates. No matter how good the US economy is and how low the unemployment rate is, can the huge debt of the United States afford it? Can America's huge stock market bubble bear it?
Mark Jolly, global strategist at CCB International Securities, told CNBC: "I want to be more optimistic, but I really don't see much positive." I think the worst will come next year, we are still in the first half of the global stock market bear market, and there will be more coming next year. "
More broadly, investors have little reason to be optimistic, said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, because the Fed's tightening of monetary policy means less investment money. The market really doesn't have the confidence to buy it back because they're not sure it's the bottom.
Vasu Menon, vice president of wealth management at OCBC (OCBC) in Singapore, said uncertainty in the trade sector would be a drag on the market in the coming months. Valuations look attractive, but you have to have a strong risk appetite because I think the market is going to be very volatile. "
The harsher year 2019, are you ready?